Tao Hongda: Analysis of Gold and Crude Oil Trends in European and American Markets

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Message: Thursday（3month2Asian market intraday, spotgoldVolatile and slightly lower, currently trading in1835Nearby. U.S.AISMmanufacturingPMIThe data performance was poor, and the US dollar fell to a new low in nearly a week104.09Nearby, gold prices hit a weekly high on Wednesday1844.37Nearby, receiving reports1836.50dollar/Ounces, however, expectations for higher terminal interest rates from the Federal Reserve and longer term maintenance of high interest rates continue to provide upward momentum for US bond yields10Three year treasury bond bonds soared more than2%On Thursday, the trend continued to rise, reaching a new high in nearly three and a half months4.018%This has increased the opportunity cost of holding gold. Investors still need to be aware of the short-term downside risk of gold prices. The yield of US treasury bond bonds rose on Wednesday due to concerns about interest rate hikes,10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds touch4%The yield of two-year treasury bond reached2007The highest since the beginning of the year. A series of overseas data and US manufacturing data have heightened concerns that interest rates may continue to rise for a longer period than expected. In the past month, US bond yields have been climbing, and strong economic data supports the Federal Reserve's expectation of more aggressive tightening of financial conditions to combat inflation. Overall, although the pullback in the US dollar provides an opportunity for gold prices to rebound, market concerns about higher terminal interest rates from the Federal Reserve have increased, and US bond yields continue to rise, which will limit the rebound space of gold prices. The short-term long short game in the gold market is expected to intensify, and there is a possibility of broad short-term fluctuations in gold prices.

Gold trend analysis:

The daily line closed three consecutive positive sessions, butKThe line entities are relatively small, and yesterday hit the previous high point of decline1845There is some suppression, pay attention to today's long short transition, if you can continue to1845If the position is under pressure and falls back, the bearish trend remains unchanged, otherwise it breaks through and closes at1845.Breaking the weak downward channel, short-term rebound, or possibly a reversal. Enter the selection with plenty of time.4The hour chart has made its first bottom rebound and has reached a key resistance point1805From the perspective of rebound space, it has already been relatively large, breaking the pattern of weak and negative decline. In addition4The space for the hour two waves to fall has been released. At present, we are entering a medium term long short decision, and it remains to be confirmed whether to turn back down or continue the two wave rebound after the small level one wave rebound.

Suggestions for Gold Operations:

　　1842-1844Short air nearby, defense1848.5, Objective1833-1825。

　　crude oilTrend analysis:

The recent focus of crude oil is on77.8-76.1Front line shock adjustment, daily closing positiveKLine. Locally, it still operates within a wide range of oscillations, while in small cycles, it tends to rebound slightly, but it is also a sawing upward trend in the oscillation range. 4The hourly chart repeatedly tests and still maintains the closing position above the Bollinger Road mid track. Currently, the structure is still in a fluctuating upward pattern supported by the mid track, while the short-term trend is a roundabout tug and fall into lateral fluctuations. Crude oil is expected to face further adjustments in the near future, and the Asian and European markets are expected to further increase their upward expectations today. The short-term pressure above is on focus78.5Area, below support, pay attention to yesterday's neck line position76.0On the first line, the market will rise and then fall, while the Asia Europe market will first decline and stabilize76.3The checkpoint can be shortened one more time, and then we can see the rebound and rebound, and break through76.10Adjust your thinking again, and the overall price will continue to operate in a wide range of long and short volatility. In the short term operation of crude oil today, it is recommended to focus on a pullback to low, supplemented by a rebound to high, with support from below76.0-75.5Area, upper pressure attention78.5-78.7Area.

Suggestions for crude oil operation:

　　77.8-78Short selling, stop loss78.5Target bit76.3-76.0。 Real time market in session guidance.

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