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今日消息面解读:
基本面上,金价在2月初受到市场预期美联储和其他央行将停止加息,并将在今年开始降息的提振,价格一度触及2022year4The highest level since the beginning of the month1959.50美元,但在一系列美国数据显示经济有弹性后,美联储利率前景再度提高,加剧了市场对美联储可能在夏季继续加息的担忧,也推动市场对于美联储利率峰值将超过6%的展望,并将降息预期和峰值高点延迟到2024Year or2025年,这打压金价下跌逾7%。
目前美国最新公布的经济数据虽表现良莠不齐,但也有开始疲软的转向,这对金价来说,将是利好的。gold现在对美联储官员的言论、关键经济数据以及任何与通胀有关的话题保持高度的敏感反应。
《玩赚黄金投资交易》作者指南金师认为:虽然,通胀显然只有在放缓的情况下才会支撑金价。但地缘紧张局势仍有望支持金价,同时世界黄金协会的报告都看好金价长期前景。
目前美联储利率峰值再度被推升,但这也会降低美国经济软着陆的几率。另外,利率的进一步上升最终也将导致大幅降息。如果美联储真的加息到6%,那只是意味着它可以在以后降息600个基点,这对黄金来说是非常有利的。未来将是持有黄金的好时机。
综合来看,虽然在延长加息利率的峰值,但从加息力度上,则是缓慢的,也就是保持25个加息基点的力度,这则相比之前的50Basis points and75个基点的压力甚小,金价对此回落的空间也在越发减弱,故此,只要不是50个基点或者更高的加息步伐,那么,对于金价的压力则只是短线的也或是有限的。
长期来看,一旦美国加息周期明显结束,黄金的吸引力将会再次上升。如果情况变得明朗,美联储将不得不再次收回部分加息举措,转为降息政策,那么黄金的吸引力将更加显著。
如果要到美联储期望的2%目标,个人仍然预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初,故此,降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以,今年仍然是偏震荡的一年,但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年,未来10年可长期持有,上看3500美元或更高都在预料之中。值得一抓。如果说,2016年我说抄底的话,你没有把握住,那么这次的机会,希望不要错过。
Today's Gold Data:
15:45France2monthCPIMonthly rate
15:45France Q4GDPAnnual rate final value
16:00Switzerland2monthKOFEconomic leading indicators
21:30Canada12monthGDPMonthly rate
22:00U.S.A12monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index
22:00U.S.A12monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities
22:45U.S.A2Month ChicagoPMI
23:00U.S.A2Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index
23:00U.S.A2Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
The next day03:30Federal Reserve Gullsby delivers a speech
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金昨日先延续偏弱震荡,下方如预期回撤至1807附近,随后行情止跌震荡,晚间在美指回修的激发下,黄金震荡回弹,如预期测压至1820一线,日线最终收得一阳,结束短线连阴局面。
日线结构上,黄金虽然昨日收阳,但目前依然还是没能站上5日线上方,目前5Daily line1819附近依然会是短线的争夺压力位,而如果站上5日线,上方10Daily line1827-30一带也继续会带来压制作用,所以短期内黄金暂时还是只能以止跌反弹来看待,日线级别大趋势对于多头是不利的,且基本面预期对于多头也不利,故多头是很难形成反转气候的。预期今日黄金大概率会有一波上涨延续,能否测压至1827-30一带,则还要看美指调整动态,目前黄金与美指节奏高度反向同步,所以黄金回弹的级别也将有美指调整的级别来决定。
结合小时图走势,隔夜黄金首次测压至1820附近后出现一次回修,下方回撤1812附近,但随后很快回弹再测1820,这样的状态基本确认了短线的上涨趋势,且短压位1820也得到确认,同时下方支撑也踏稳,日内下方可着重关注1815/14附近支撑,以及1810整数位支撑,如果回踩支撑不破再回升,上方冲破1820的概率将会加大,届时上方可再看1827-30一带压力测试,此位在小时图级别也是非常关键的压力位,所以自1810-05区域展开的止跌回弹,暂时将1827-30一带视作为主要目标区域。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期重点关注1827-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1812Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
2.28Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
Empty order strategy:
Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1827-1830Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1810frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
Multiple order strategy:
Strategy 2: Gold Callback1810-1812Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:
1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above
2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above
3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above
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