Guide Metallographer:2.27Today's gold trend analysis showed that the gold price fell again after the shock

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(2month24day)Close down again, opening price1823.37dollar/Ounces, highest price1827.62dollar/Ounces, lowest price1808.78dollar/Ounces, closing price1810.48dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday1月个人支出月率录得1.8%Higher than market expectations1.3%, previous value is-0.2%； U.S.A1Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index recorded0.6%Higher than market expectations0.4%, previous value is0.3%。 U.S.A1Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual rate recorded4.7%Higher than market expectations4.3%, previous value is4.4%。


Commentary states that the United States1月消费者支出大幅反弹，收入增长强劲，同时通胀加速，这可能加剧金融市场对美联储可能在整个夏季继续加息的担忧。周五公布的数据显示，占美国经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出上月跃升1.8%。12月份的数据被上修，显示支出下降0.1%，而不是之前报告的下降0.2%。支出可能受到8.7%的生活成本调整的推动，这是自1981年以来的最大增幅。消费者支出强劲，加上劳动力市场有弹性，表明经济远未衰退。穆迪认为，美国经济将经历缓慢增长，增长将接近停滞，但绝不会出现衰退。


　　美联储官员美斯特表示，新的通胀数据证实了美联储未来更多加息的理由。美联储需要保持加息，将基金利率提高到5%以上，并保持一段时间，直到通胀趋势下降。美联储需要更多的紧缩措施才能使通胀率回到2%。“只关注加息25A basis point or50个基点”的看法会影响大局判断。对通胀和经济的看法不会因最新数据而改变。目前无法透露3月份美联储所需的加息规模。


　　美联储官员柯林斯表示，通货膨胀仍然过高，最近的数据，包括几个强劲的劳动力市场指标，以及高于预期的零售销售和生产者价格通胀，都表明美联储目前做的还不够。预计利率将会达到足够高的水平。应对过高通胀需要美联储进一步加息，未来有可能维持利率长期不变。


　　美联储官员布拉德表示，市场预计通货膨胀将在未来几个季度或者几年内得到控制。美国目前的情况可能属于“可信的”通胀回落，这种情况不会产生很大的产出成本。如果疫情后的制度转变执行得好，美国经济实现软着陆是可行的。


　　IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃表示，没有看到通胀快速下降。各国央行需要“坚持下去”。


　　华尔街经济学家分析称，美联储可能需要将利率提高至6.5%以遏制通胀，该研究尖锐批评了美联储最初对物价上涨反应缓慢的做法。同时认为美联储仍然对经济前景过于乐观，他们将需要给经济带来一些痛苦，以控制物价。这份55页的学术研究对美联储实现软着陆的能力提出了质疑，同时不认为美联储可以在2025年底之前，将通胀恢复到2%的目标，并保证不会出现轻度衰退。研究中的计算机模型显示，利率将在2023年下半年达到5.6%or6%，甚至是6.5%Peak value of.


Eurozone:


　　欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，完全有理由相信欧洲央行将在3Monthly interest rate hike50Basis points.


　　摩根士丹利分析称，德国2monthIFO商业景气指数上升至91.1，与市场普遍预期一致，其构成好坏参半，预期指数进一步正常化，但现况指数连续第二个月恶化，与本周公布的更为正面的德国PMI形成对比，并证实了我们的观点，即德国2023年第一季度的GDP可能会萎缩，主要是因为家庭实际支付的能源费用增加可能会拖累年初的消费。德国2monthIFO商业预期指数有所改善，但这主要反映了在2022year3Month to9月期间大幅下降后的反弹。因此，现况指数与预期指数之间的差距正在缩小。然而，我们认为，在冬季供应面中断的担忧消退后，这种预期的正常化并不意味着未来几个月GDP增长的强烈信号。反而是现况指数连续两个月恶化且低于100的长期平均水平确认了德国经济疲软。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is73.0%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is27.0%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is69.3%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is29.3%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is1.4%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　18:00eurozone2Monthly Industrial and Economic Prosperity Index


　　18:00eurozone2Final value of monthly consumer confidence index


　　21:30Canadian Q4 Current Account


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　23:00U.S.A1Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


　　23:30U.S.A2Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month


　　23:30Federal Reserve Director Jefferson delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold bottomed out last Friday1818After a significant increase in the vicinity, after repeatedly adjusting the upward test pressure level at the beginning of last week, multiple tests were conducted1845-47The pressure level at this position has repeatedly started to run downwards after multiple tests without breaking, and the high and low points have also decreased accordingly. It will be stepped back on Thursday1817After the first line, it went through the cycle again and fell below on Friday after the cycle1817-18After this short-term low point, inertia plummeted and briefly touched in the evening1808On the front line, the daily trend of four consecutive bearish and weak declines has begun to test the strong platform support at the end of last year1800In the short term, with the gradual release of bearish positions, it will be difficult to have a significant decline in the short term if there is no further downward trend on Monday. It is necessary to accumulate momentum after repeated periods and add pressure on the fundamentals in order to have the space and momentum to continue the downward trend. Please pay attention to the above1820Strong pressure nearby.


At present, the weakness in gold consolidation will continue, and the gold operation strategy at the beginning of this week is still mainly based on high-altitude thinking. Please pay attention to it below1790Nearby support breaking situation, short-term operation approaching1790Not chasing short positions nearby is not a reason to go long. It is necessary to make a decision based on the current market situation. Before there is a special form of reverse drawing, we will still operate around the bearish mentality, and gold will close1810Nearby, so after the opening, we can start by reverse drawing and lay out empty orders, while the pressure above will also maintain the top and bottom conversion in the early stage1818-1820On the front line, this position can also serve as a short-term bullish/bearish watershed position. If we break through this position in the later stage of backtracking, we still need to consider whether there is a possibility of bullish backtracking, and the support below will also be maintained at an integer level1800On the front line, we can also try to make a short-term and long-term goal1815-18Nearby, it should be noted that this week is not a non farm week and is likely to be in a volatile mode. We are cautious in chasing gains and killing losses. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest a rebound and short selling as the main approach, supplemented by a pullback and long selling. The short-term focus should be on the upper part1817-1820Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1805Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.27Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1820-1822Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1810-1805Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1803-1805Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1810-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above