Guide Metallographer:2.24Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold has broken the bottom and pulled back in the short term...

　　今日消息面解读：


　　基本面上，昨日美国公布的上周初请失业金人数下降，支持了美联储必须继续提高利率以控制通胀的立场，给美元提供上涨动能，金价则继续承压。但GDP的放缓，略低于预期，则显示经济前景有所转弱，而限制了美元走强动力，并给金价提供支撑。


　　但，之前美联储公布的会议记录和美联储官员都偏向鹰派，以及更早之前的非农数据显示最近几个月就业增长强劲，失业率保持在较低水平。继续支撑美联储的加息将会延长。而令金价持续受压。


　　不过，综合来看，虽然在延长加息利率的峰值，但从加息力度上，则是缓慢的，也就是保持25个加息基点的力度，这则相比之前的50Basis points and75个基点的压力甚小，金价对此回落的空间也在越发减弱，故此，只要不是50个基点或者更高的加息步伐，那么，对于金价的压力则只是短线的也或是有限的。


　　再者，尽管，通货膨胀仍处于高位。令美联储今后可能变得更加鹰派，以及不断的推升加息峰值。同时美联储也表示很有可能在2023年击败通胀，而不会造成经济衰退。令金价反弹不断受限。


　　但，可以知道的是，美联储的加息力度不会再度增强，只会缓慢的延长周期。以及加息和通胀高企并不是长期问题，目前也正在接近尾声，整体趋势也仍保持着下降的前景，就算通胀再次加速升温，预计也难以再度刷新40年的高点，因而也不会再令美联储产生75个基点的加息力度。


　　一旦美国加息周期明显结束，gold的吸引力应该会再次缓慢上升。如果情况变得明朗，美联储将不得不再次收回部分加息举措，黄金的吸引力将更加显著。


　　所以综合来看，美联储不管是否会在2023year7月的政策利率峰值将达到5.25-5.50%后继续提高，还是开始转降息，市场对于美联储的讲话和政策反应也愈发减弱；根据通胀的降幅，从9.1%下降到目前的6.4%用了7个月时间，如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以，今年仍然是震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Germany3monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　15:00Germany Q4 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate final value


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly CorePCE物价指数年率及月率


　　23:00U.S.A2Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


　　23:00U.S.A2Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　23:00U.S.A1Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　23:00乌克兰总统泽连斯基在联合国发表讲话


　　23:15美联储梅斯特和杰斐逊就通胀发表讲话


The next day00:30美联储布拉德就通胀发表讲话


The next day02:30美联储理事沃勒就通胀发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金日线结构上连续三日收阴线，对应美指三日收阳，运行节奏上还是方向同步的状态，而目前美指短线上涨空间有限，短线行情上涨趋势已经至末端，所以黄金短线也有可能借着前低支撑进行一定的回弹，但是黄金整体情绪并不乐观，未来大趋势还是更倾向于回落调整，所以短期内即便有回弹，也视作为超跌性质的反弹，而非技术上的反转趋势。日内上方关注5日线压力，目前5The daily line has been moved down1830附近，如果5日线刺破，上方可再看10Daily line1837/1838附近压力测试。技术上，黄金短线可以借着前低进行一定的回弹，但大趋势来看，黄金空头并未完全得到释放，下方也还留有很大的空间，如果出现再度回落也在情理之中，届时下方或可期待1805-1800One belt retreat.


　　目前结合1/4小时图走势，短线黄金也完成小波段的三波下跌调整，隔夜行情也在前低附近有止跌反弹，所以日内黄金可能会先有个延续回弹的消化过程，以确认隔夜回弹的有效性。上方可着重关注1830-1833短压，如果能站上此压之上，站稳此位则短线下跌趋势得到暂缓，但并不能代表行情反转。站上则上方再看1840附近压力测试，如能站稳此位之上，黄金的中期级别反弹才有希望延续下去，否则依然还是将其视作为短线反弹测压过程。昨日测试低点，虽未延续下行，但好在还是收在低位，今日仍看适当性的延续下行，反弹是为了修正蓄势。小时图围绕在中轨附近承压，结合昨日的节奏，亚盘是震荡修正，欧美盘看下跌破低，在亚盘时段反弹择机高空，欧盘看新低，阻力在上轨1830-1833附近，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1830-1833Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1800Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.24Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1830-1833Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1810Nearby, break down and take a look1805frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1803-1805Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1810-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above