Guide Metallographer:2.24Today's gold trend analysis shows that the gold price has expanded and maintained volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(2month23day)Volatile closing price1835.86dollar/Ounces, highest price1836.91dollar/Ounces, lowest price1817.32dollar/Ounces, closing price1823.38dollar/ounce.


　　今日消息面解读：


Thursday's announcement from the United States to2month18Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week19.210000 people, lower than market expectations2010000 people, the former value is19.410000 people.


　　评论称，美国初请失业金人数意外降至三周以来的最低水平，表明劳动力市场持续紧张。从许多方面来看，劳动力市场都很紧张，因就业岗位创造强劲、失业率低，以及有数百万个空缺职位。这一直是美联储的一个主要担忧，因为政策制定者认为劳动力市场强劲是导致通胀居高不下的一个因素。机构经济学家称，美联储官员可能认为，就业数据对3monthFOMC会议之后继续加息的必要性提供了支撑。


　　周四公布的美国第四季度实际GDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value2.7%, lower than market expectations2.9%, previous value is2.9%。


　　评论称，修订后的数据显示，到2022年底，美国经济的增速略有放缓，主要原因是消费者削减了支出。作为经济的主要引擎，消费支出的年增长率为1.4%，而不是最初公布的2.1%。经济学家表示，美国将很难在2023年的前三个月达到第四季度的表现，即便第四季度的经济如此平淡。根据早期经济数据，美国经济的扩张速度将大幅放缓，甚至会出现收缩。不断上升的利率和高通胀迫使消费者和企业削减支出和投资，尤其是在住房和建筑等对利率敏感的领域。


　　美国联信银行首席经济学家Bill Adams表示，美联储决心让劳动力市场释放出一些松弛讯号，以确保通胀不会在目前的高水平上根深蒂固。到2023Mid year,CPI同比通胀可能会放缓至低于联邦基金利率的水平。但如果通胀再次意外上行，或者失业率进一步下降，美联储的加息幅度可能会超过我们的预测。


　　摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，通胀可能比轻度衰退严重得多。美联储必须弄清楚长远来看怎么做是对的。通货膨胀如此隐蔽，可能损害未来10年的经济增长。资本市场可能很快就会好转。银行系统的状况非常好，消费者的状况也非常好。美联储利率可能需要稍微提高，达到6%是可能的。美联储快速加息以追赶进度，他们可能会在某个水平暂停，或是略高于5%。美联储对通货膨胀失去了一些控制能力。现在美国经济表现相当不错。目前美国经济仍有机会实现软着陆。


　　分析称，2023year1月，美国零售额同比增长6.4%，该数据的激增给人营造出了一种经济运转良好的假象。但很多人忽略了一个关键问题：人们是如何为这种疯狂购物买单的？数据显示，美国12月当月循环信贷(主要反映信用卡债务)增长了72亿美元，增幅为7.3%。与此同时，家庭债务在2022年第四季度增加了3940亿美元。这是20年来家庭债务的最大季度环比增幅。显然，由于严重的物价通胀，美国人在所有方面的支出都在增加，而且储蓄大幅下降。因此，尽管主流专家告诉你经济强劲，但他们看到的只是表象，美国目前的经济发展模式绝不是健康的，甚至是“不可持续的”。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.74Tons, current position is917.32Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is73.0%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is27.0%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is70.3%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is28.7%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is1.0%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Germany3monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　15:00Germany Q4 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate final value


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly CorePCE物价指数年率及月率


　　23:00U.S.A2Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


　　23:00U.S.A2Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　23:00U.S.A1Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　23:00乌克兰总统泽连斯基在联合国发表讲话


　　23:15美联储梅斯特和杰斐逊就通胀发表讲话


The next day00:30美联储布拉德就通胀发表讲话


The next day02:30美联储理事沃勒就通胀发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金日线结构上连续三日收阴线，对应美指三日收阳，运行节奏上还是方向同步的状态，而目前美指短线上涨空间有限，短线行情上涨趋势已经至末端，所以黄金短线也有可能借着前低支撑进行一定的回弹，但是黄金整体情绪并不乐观，未来大趋势还是更倾向于回落调整，所以短期内即便有回弹，也视作为超跌性质的反弹，而非技术上的反转趋势。日内上方关注5日线压力，目前5The daily line has been moved down1830附近，如果5日线刺破，上方可再看10Daily line1837/1838附近压力测试。技术上，黄金短线可以借着前低进行一定的回弹，但大趋势来看，黄金空头并未完全得到释放，下方也还留有很大的空间，如果出现再度回落也在情理之中，届时下方或可期待1805-1800One belt retreat.


　　目前结合1/4小时图走势，短线黄金也完成小波段的三波下跌调整，隔夜行情也在前低附近有止跌反弹，所以日内黄金可能会先有个延续回弹的消化过程，以确认隔夜回弹的有效性。上方可着重关注1830-1833短压，如果能站上此压之上，站稳此位则短线下跌趋势得到暂缓，但并不能代表行情反转。站上则上方再看1840附近压力测试，如能站稳此位之上，黄金的中期级别反弹才有希望延续下去，否则依然还是将其视作为短线反弹测压过程。昨日测试低点，虽未延续下行，但好在还是收在低位，今日仍看适当性的延续下行，反弹是为了修正蓄势。小时图围绕在中轨附近承压，结合昨日的节奏，亚盘是震荡修正，欧美盘看下跌破低，在亚盘时段反弹择机高空，欧盘看新低，阻力在上轨1830-1833附近，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1830-1833Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1800Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.24Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1830-1833Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1810Nearby, break down and take a look1805frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1803-1805Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1810-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above