Guide Metallographer:2.23Today's gold trend analysis shows that the Fed's interest rate increase path remains unchanged

　　goldMessage interpretation:


This morning, the Federal Reserve announced1month31Date to this month1The minutes of the Japanese monetary policy meeting show that most Fed officials support further slowing down interest rate hikes to25Basis points, but a few officials were inclined to raise interest rates at that time50Basis points. The minutes write that the attending Federal Reserve decision-makers unanimously believe that there are recent signs that,FOMCThe cumulative effect of tightening the currency has begun to alleviate inflationary pressure, and the inflation rate is still much higher than2%FOMCThe long-term goal of the US labor market is still very tight, leading to sustained wage and price increases.


This time, when reiterating that inflation is still high, a statement was added that inflation has eased to some extent. The market therefore believes that this resolution is biased towards doves, suggesting that the interest rate hike is nearing its end. But personally, I don't think so. Firstly, the easing of inflation is because last year's base was too high, which has a relatively limited relationship with interest rate hikes1The month on month increase can be seen without a decrease.


Secondly, the minutes also clearly state that there will be at least2Raising interest rates several times and not reducing them within the year, which was interpreted by hawks before, why did it become a dove this time?


Finally, from the price response in the financial market, we can see that non US assets have fallen and there are no signs of doves. So to summarize, the current basic logic has not changed, and the direction of trading will naturally not change. Keep playing music and dancing!


Today's Focus Data:


　　18:00eurozone1monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　19:00britain2monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　21:30From the United States to2month18Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　21:30US Q4 ActualGDPRevised value of annualized quarterly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the daily chart of gold, the short-term technical outlook for gold prices remains more or less unchanged, as gold prices enter a bearish consolidation stage. along with14Daily Relative strength index(RSI)Sending a bearish signal, a downward break in gold prices looks more likely. After the release of the Federal Reserve minutes in the early morning, it quickly fell, hitting1823Nearby, various performances have also raised our expectations for future bearish positions. In the short term, gold has been constantly trapped in a cycle of range fluctuations, which is likely to meet our expectations. The correction after the second decline of bearish positions, and the current pressure above gold will also be maintained1840frontline.


Gold is currently maintaining a broad range of low levels in the daily trend, and the current range has been temporarily compressed1820-1845between. But in the4On the trend of hourly levelKLine drop below early stage1835After the support of the joint row in the area, the market began to come under pressure and the short-term moving average remained weak. However, there were signs of slowing down in the trend of small-scale cycles, and the technical form showed signs of gradually repairing. There may be some room for rebound and repair in the short-term trend. Intraday gold is still a short-term reference point at the high and low points of the above two trading days, and the upper part of the day should pay attention to1835The situation of nearby suppression is currently continuing the weak downward trend at the daily level. As the daily decline suppressed yesterday, today1835Rebound is obstructed, so in terms of operation1835Consider following the sky when rebounding below; Below, for the continuation of weekly level trends, attention needs to be paid below1818Last week's low level, if it continues to break, then there should be further testing in the future1800Pass, but this belongs to the trend of continuing downward trend, pay attention to below1818On the first line of support, there has been no substantial breakthrough. Just maintain the short-term reference of high selling and low buying in the interval. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1835-1838Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1818-1820Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1835-1837Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1825-1820Nearby, break down and take a look1818frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1818-1820Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1825-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1835frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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