He Hongsheng:2.23 Analysis of the evening trend of gold and silver and operational suggestions

　　goldLatest market trend analysis:

Analysis of gold news: Thursday(2month23day)In the Asian market, the spot gold continued to be under pressure, and the gold price is now reported1825dollar/Around ounces; Gold prices staged more than20The dollar dived. The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed that all the Fed officials who served as the voting committee at the meeting voted for raising interest rates25To raise the target range of the federal funds rate to4.50%to4.75%between. The minutes of the meeting pointed out that "almost all" officials agreed to raise interest rates at the meeting25A basis point is appropriate, as "a few people" tend or could have supported interest rate hikes50Basis points. In the short term, it is expected that gold prices will further weaken and1788The US dollar region is seen as the next major support level.

The Rise of the Federal Reserve's Tight Expectations for Overseas Investorsstock market indexBring a certain impact. We believe that the US dollar will experience a short-term rebound. As the US economy becomes more resilient than expected and the expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates rise, the weak US dollar will be driven by a phased reversal in the expectation gap between European and American economies, as well as interest rate differentials between Europe and America. In addition, the United States1monthCPIIn the case of non agricultural exceeding market expectations, market pricing will also raise interest rates twice this year. Based on the position structure, we estimate that the US dollar will experience a certain rebound in the short term. Based on the correlation between major assets and the US dollar, as well as excluding the impact of fundamentals, if the rebound in the US dollar index stage continues, precious metals and US bondsfuturesEarly stage beneficiary assets such as non-ferrous metals and global stock indices will face short-term adjustment risks. The US dollar is also supported as a result. If the sell-off in the bond market intensifies, gold may further weaken, but the decline may not be as significant as stocks.

Technical analysis of gold: Gold fluctuated weakly as expected yesterday, and although there was a wave of rebound in late trading, the pressure was measured to1846On the first line, but the market continued to weaken afterwards, anticipating the impact of the Fed meeting minutes being biased towards hawkish expectations. The minutes of the early morning Federal Reserve meeting were relatively hawkish, and gold also fell again as expected, breaking the limit1830-27Short support, retreat to1822A negative line with an upward shadow in the area where the daily line is drawn. In the first half of the week, gold remained at5Although there was a rebound in the daily competition, the market sentiment was severely suppressed, and the daily line was closed. I have to say that the whole market sentiment was still controlled by bears. The current market has fallen again to1830Below, and under the influence of fundamentals, there is a possibility of a continuation of the short-term trend. However, this downward trend is not expected to be very large. Firstly, it is due to the sustained downward overdraft in the early stage, secondly, the bearish fundamentals are not too strong, and thirdly, technically, gold has also entered the region of repeated competition before the year, approaching the medium-term level support zone. You can follow above the daily gold1834/35If the nearby pressure cannot be overcome, it indicates that bearish sentiment is dominant at a low level, and the corresponding gold may rebound in a weak and volatile manner1800Nearby support.

Since the non agricultural era, gold has basically maintained a stepwise downward trend, and has now emerged from three box forms. The newly established one is different from the first two in terms of cycle, with the first two being4The hour fast and slow line gold cross correction was established, but the current correction cycle may be longer and is expected to extend to the daily level for correction. Therefore, currently, gold is also undergoing a volatile consolidation, but as the correction progresses, the specific form still needs to be adjusted. There has been no significant change in the market, and my bearish mentality remains unchanged. With the premise of bearish fundamentals and the technical aspect being in the correction stage, correcting high points is a good opportunity to short. Towards the end of the week, there was a certain level of break in the market, with a low level in the early stage1818The first line is a relatively obvious low point, and the second touch of the market will definitely have some support, while the current price remains at1820Above the nearby entities, there are still expectations of a rebound. After the decline, there has been further rebound after stopping the decline, and we will pay attention to the rebound suppression situation within the day. After a decline in the structure of the thinking, the main bearish trend is still the main trend, and it is not easy to grab more. The rhythm of trending bearish trends is still mainly following the mainstream trend layout.

In terms of operation, the rebound in the early market may not necessarily be the true direction trend, and the connection between the European and American markets is the key point. The number of transactions in a day is not high, but it is mainly stable at key time points. It is recommended to refer to the period from the European market to the US market for key participation. On point reference, the current decline is below the previous low, please pay attention to the above1835On the first line, the pressure on the intraday rebound remains mainly high in the main short range, and the downward trend is expected to continue. If the rebound breaks through, it is making temporary changes. Overall, in terms of the short-term operation strategy for gold today, He Hongsheng suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback and long selling, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1836-1841Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1815-1810Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market trend analysis:

Analysis of crude oil message surface:2month23At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd74dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices fell more than on Wednesday3%At the lowest point in two weeks, as investors become more concerned, recent economic data will mean that central banks will be more aggressive in raising interest rates, which will weigh on economic growth and fuel demand. The vast majority of Federal Reserve policymakers agreed at the last policy meeting to slow down the pace of raising benchmark overnight interest rates to25However, it also indicates that the risk of high inflation remains a "key factor" affecting monetary policy, which means that it is necessary to continue to increase borrowing costs until inflation is controlled. Analysts said, 'We will observe the trend of the stock market, but I believe action should dominate in the coming weeks.'500index11Most of the major sectors fell, with energy and real estate stocks performing the worst, falling respectively0.8%and1%。 The energy stock index has closed lower for seven consecutive trading days as investors' concerns about future economic growth and fuel demand have put pressure on commodity prices. Overall, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has boosted the strength of the US dollar and suppressed oil prices. The surge in US crude oil inventories has further boosted bearish positions. In addition, due to the impact of winter storms, thousands of US flights have been cancelled, increasing demand concerns. There is ample room for oil prices to decline and they are expected to hit70dollar/Bucket.

Technical analysis of crude oil: Yesterday, crude oil continued to experience extremely weak bearish positions and bottomed out, while prices in the Asian and European markets fell slightly and fell to75The checkpoint stabilized and quickly rebounded, further rebounding and rebounding towards the US market76Above the checkpoint, it fell into a sideways oscillation and eventually ended up in the evening22Further pressure on oil prices before and after points76.2The checkpoint is experiencing an accelerated downward decline and bottoming out, and the weak downward breakdown continues in the early morning75Weak closing of the checkpoint, daykLine closing fell and broke through the bottom, causing overall price pressure76The checkpoint has once again seen a weak trend of bearish positions, a bottoming out trend, and a continuous negative trend. In the short term, a typical bearish market is under pressure today. Focus on yesterday's early morning hour line to open the bearish position75.5-75.7Nearby, rely on this position to continue the main bearish market and see a pullback in the day. Recently, focus on the strength and weakness of the long bearish market, and pay attention to yesterday's opening of a bearish market76On the first line, the daily level has not broken through and remains stable in this position before continuing to maintain the rhythm of the backhand main air. Overall, in terms of crude oil's short-term operation strategy today, He Hongsheng suggests that the main focus should be on rebounding high, supplemented by a pullback low, with short-term attention from above75.1-75.6Frontline resistance, short-term focus below72.7-72.2Frontline support.

This article is submitted by He Hongsheng. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as gold, gold, and silver. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, the suggestions are for reference only. Please indicate the source when reprinting.

The author of this article analyzes the strategy of gold and crude oil market