Guide Metallographer:2.23今日黄金走势分析，美纪要与决策者联手放鹰

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Thursday(2month23day)：国际黄金开盘在短暂走弱后，再度偏强，美元指数及美债收益率开盘继续先行走弱，对其产生支撑，但整体来看，美联储的鹰派压力和近期的强劲数据压力，也仍有利空的打压情绪，因而反弹力度也是有限的，短期走势仍偏向看空为主，继续等待下方的支撑位触及。


　　日内将重点关注美国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)和初请失业金人数，根据近期公布的数据情况来看，偏向利空金价的概率较大，因而晚间仍看好回落，关注白盘时段的反弹力度。


　　另外，周五时段的美联储通货膨胀指标--个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)，目前市场预期核心PCE指数预计将环比上升0.4%But1月份的同比增速预计将从12月份的增长4.4%Reduce to growth4.3%。根据上次通胀数据的公布情况看，仍将显示通胀居高不下，再加上美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值或继续产生震荡行情走盘。因而本周再度收跌下行的概率也依然很大。


　　基本面上，美联储公布的会议记录显示，决策者决心利用较慢的加息步伐来抑制持续的高通胀，这推升美元走强，打压金价下跌。但较慢的加息步伐，则暗示后市会持续的进行25个基点的加息力度，但只要不是50个基点或者更高的加息步伐，那么，对于金价的压力则只是短线的也或是有限的。


　　另外，尽管，最近几个月就业增长强劲，失业率保持在较低水平。通货膨胀仍处于高位。也会令美联储今后可能变得更加鹰派，以及不断不推升的加息峰值。令金价反弹不断受限。同时美联储也表示很有可能在2023年击败通胀，而不会造成经济衰退。


　　但，可以知道的是，美联储的加息力度不会再度增强，只会缓慢的延长周期。以及加息和通胀高企并不是长期问题，目前也正在接近尾声，整体趋势也仍保持着下降的前景，就算通胀再次加速升温，预计也难以再度刷新40年的高点，因而也不会再令美联储产生75个基点的加息力度。


　　所以综合来看，美联储不管是否会在2023year7月的政策利率峰值将达到5.25-5.50%后继续提高，还是开始转降息，市场对于美联储的讲话和政策反应也愈发减弱；根据通胀的降幅，从9.1%下降到目前的6.4%用了7个月时间，如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以，今年仍然是震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年。


Today's Focus Data:


　　18:00eurozone1monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　19:00britain2monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　21:30From the United States to2month18Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　21:30US Q4 ActualGDPRevised value of annualized quarterly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the daily chart of gold, the short-term technical outlook for gold prices remains more or less unchanged, as gold prices enter a bearish consolidation stage. along with14Daily Relative strength index(RSI)Sending a bearish signal, a downward break in gold prices looks more likely. After the release of the Federal Reserve minutes in the early morning, it quickly fell, hitting1823Nearby, various performances have also raised our expectations for future bearish positions. In the short term, gold has been constantly trapped in a cycle of range fluctuations, which is likely to meet our expectations. The correction after the second decline of bearish positions, and the current pressure above gold will also be maintained1840frontline.


Gold is currently maintaining a broad range of low levels in the daily trend, and the current range has been temporarily compressed1820-1845between. But in the4On the trend of hourly levelKLine drop below early stage1835After the support of the joint row in the area, the market began to come under pressure and the short-term moving average remained weak. However, there were signs of slowing down in the trend of small-scale cycles, and the technical form showed signs of gradually repairing. There may be some room for rebound and repair in the short-term trend. Intraday gold is still a short-term reference point at the high and low points of the above two trading days, and the upper part of the day should pay attention to1835The situation of nearby suppression is currently continuing the weak downward trend at the daily level. As the daily decline suppressed yesterday, today1835Rebound is obstructed, so in terms of operation1835Consider following the sky when rebounding below; Below, for the continuation of weekly level trends, attention needs to be paid below1818Last week's low level, if it continues to break, then there should be further testing in the future1800Pass, but this belongs to the trend of continuing downward trend, pay attention to below1818On the first line of support, there has been no substantial breakthrough. Just maintain the short-term reference of high selling and low buying in the interval. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1835-1838Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1818-1820Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1835-1837Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1825-1820Nearby, break down and take a look1818frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1818-1820Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1825-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1835frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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