Guide Metallographer:2.22Analysis of today's gold trend and how to respond to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Last Friday, gold bottomed out and rebounded, with a low hammer line, releasing a short-term bottoming signal. However, after the opening of this week, gold prices did not continue to rebound upwards, but instead encountered obstacles and began to consolidate through low volatility. This indicates that short-term selling pressure above is still strong, which is consistent with the recent bearish fundamentals that have weighed on gold prices. After the opening of trading on Wednesday, gold fluctuated slightly and rose, temporarily trading at1838Around the US dollar.


　　WolfinanceAccording to the star analyst guide Jinshi, gold has been performing very quietly since the opening of this week. On the one hand, it is an American holiday on Monday, and there is basically no news released that day. On the other hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting will be released on Wednesday. Before that, market sentiment was relatively conservative, which made many parties and the empty side have scruples.


Regarding the minutes of this meeting, based on a series of hawkish speeches by Federal Reserve officials recently, it is highly likely that the content of the minutes will lean towards hawks. Previously, due to strong non agricultural data and higher than expected gainsCPIAndPPIAffected by the data, the market has largely dispelled expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year and strengthened expectations for higher peak interest rates and longer periods of high interest rates, supporting the US dollar and suppressing gold.


At present, the market expects that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting may show support for a larger interest rate hike, as well as the degree of higher interest rate peaks. The US dollar and US bond yields may further rise, and gold may once again test the low point of the year1818USD.


Today's Focus Data:


　　09:00New Zealand Federal Reserve Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　10:00New Zealand Federal Reserve Holds a Press Conference


　　15:00Germany1monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　17:00Germany2monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index


　　17:00Switzerland2monthZEWInvestor confidence index


The next day03:00Federal Reserve Announcement2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated and recovered yesterday, and the European market briefly retreated to1830On the first line, the late market has rebounded and measured pressure1844On the first line, after the US data, gold returned to a weak and volatile state, and the daily line eventually closed at a small negative line, closing at5Off the daily line. In terms of daily structure, the trend of gold in the first two days was not so ideal. It was originally expected that on the basis of exploring the rebound line on Friday, the market could expand its rebound space and test it10Daily pressure, but no testing was conducted in the end10The process of daily trading, on the contrary, wasted the short-term rebound opportunity in yesterday's market and regained its momentum5On a daily basis, such a state is enough to show that the current market sentiment is unusually unstable when the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are coming, and the overall state is relatively weak. Bull confidence is difficult to be supported. The expected rate of gold for the day will still revolve around5The daily line oscillates, and if there is a rebound, stand up5Above the daily line, it is also allowed, but currently10The daily line has been moved down1846Nearby, this may also become the main pressure level for the day. Stay tuned below for the day1830-27The support band test shows that the Asian and European stock market is likely to operate within the above range. Finally, we will wait for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in the early morning tomorrow for further reference and direction selection.


On the golden hour chart, yesterday's gold trend also appeared very strange. When it was technically necessary to rise during the Asian session, the market was constantly affected by*Despite not rising, there has been a panic selling and suppression during the European trading period. The late trading market was exceptionally active, but another rally was no longer technically necessary. Ultimately, the rally did not succeed, and the market was shaken back to its original form under the influence of data. At present, although the gold structure on the hour chart still retains the "head shoulder bottom" shape, it can no longer be expected based on this shape. The short-term market tends to fluctuate horizontally, and at the same time, the originally expected head shoulder bottom shape has also changed on the hour chart level1837-35It will be used as the right shoulder support, and is currently lowered to1830-27Although there is still hope for the hourly chart level head and shoulders to continue without breaking this level, the future upward space and momentum will definitely be greatly affected. Of course, it still exists now. Let's try again1845If we try again, the possibility of1845If you still cannot stand above this position, it is very likely that you will fall again, or even break the level1818The possibility of. At present, gold only needs to wait1845Here, if you can't go up, rely on it1845Open a short position. If the future market stabilizes again1845Here, then we need to pay attention to1868/70This position, this iscpiThe high point played is likely to be touched again. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1847-1850Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.22Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1845-1847Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1840-1835Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1832-1834Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above