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goldMessage interpretation:
基本面上,尽管面临加息和生活成本紧缩等不利因素,但随着通胀见顶和衰退风险消退的迹象,企业情绪已好转,并在经历了7个月的下滑之后,2月份的商业活动出现了可喜的企稳。与此同时,供应紧张程度有所缓解,服务业也在推动经济好转。这将增加加息的呼声。
不过,通货膨胀仍然是一个主要问题,调查数据突显出,在劳动力市场吃紧的情况下,通胀的上行驱动力现在已转向工资。服务业价格的加速增长可能会引发人们对工资-价格螺旋上升的担忧,而加息又可能抑制刚刚出现的扩张。所以,整体而言,金价偏向先承压震荡,后触底回升的概率仍然很大。
因为,加息和通胀高企并不是长期问题,目前也正在接近尾声,整体趋势也仍保持着下降的前景,就算通胀再次加速升温,预计也难以再度刷新40年的高点,因而也不会再令美联储产生75个基点的加息力度。
所以综合来看,美联储不管是否会在美联储2023year7月的政策利率峰值将达到5.25%后继续提高,还是开始转降息,市场对于美联储的讲话和政策反应也愈发减弱;根据通胀的降幅,从9.1下降到目前的6.4用了7个月时间,如果要到美联储期望的2%目标,预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初,故此,降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以,今年仍然是震荡的一年,但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年。
Today's Focus Data:
09:00New Zealand Federal Reserve Announces Interest Rate Resolution
10:00New Zealand Federal Reserve Holds a Press Conference
15:00Germany1monthCPIMonthly rate final value
17:00Germany2monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index
17:00Switzerland2monthZEWInvestor confidence index
The next day03:00Federal Reserve Announcement2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold fluctuated and recovered yesterday, and the European market briefly retreated to1830On the first line, the late market has rebounded and measured pressure1844On the first line, after the US data, gold returned to a weak and volatile state, and the daily line eventually closed at a small negative line, closing at5Off the daily line. In terms of daily structure, the trend of gold in the first two days was not so ideal. It was originally expected that on the basis of exploring the rebound line on Friday, the market could expand its rebound space and test it10Daily pressure, but no testing was conducted in the end10The process of daily trading, on the contrary, wasted the short-term rebound opportunity in yesterday's market and regained its momentum5On a daily basis, such a state is enough to show that the current market sentiment is unusually unstable when the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are coming, and the overall state is relatively weak. Bull confidence is difficult to be supported. The expected rate of gold for the day will still revolve around5The daily line oscillates, and if there is a rebound, stand up5Above the daily line, it is also allowed, but currently10The daily line has been moved down1846Nearby, this may also become the main pressure level for the day. Stay tuned below for the day1830-27The support band test shows that the Asian and European stock market is likely to operate within the above range. Finally, we will wait for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in the early morning tomorrow for further reference and direction selection.
On the golden hour chart, yesterday's gold trend also appeared very strange. When it was technically necessary to rise during the Asian session, the market was constantly affected by*Despite not rising, there has been a panic selling and suppression during the European trading period. The late trading market was exceptionally active, but another rally was no longer technically necessary. Ultimately, the rally did not succeed, and the market was shaken back to its original form under the influence of data. At present, although the gold structure on the hour chart still retains the "head shoulder bottom" shape, it can no longer be expected based on this shape. The short-term market tends to fluctuate horizontally, and at the same time, the originally expected head shoulder bottom shape has also changed on the hour chart level1837-35It will be used as the right shoulder support, and is currently lowered to1830-27Although there is still hope for the hourly chart level head and shoulders to continue without breaking this level, the future upward space and momentum will definitely be greatly affected. Of course, it still exists now. Let's try again1845If we try again, the possibility of1845If you still cannot stand above this position, it is very likely that you will fall again, or even break the level1818The possibility of. At present, gold only needs to wait1845Here, if you can't go up, rely on it1845Open a short position. If the future market stabilizes again1845Here, then we need to pay attention to1868/70This position, this iscpiThe high point played is likely to be touched again. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1847-1850Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
2.22Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:
Empty order strategy:
Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1845-1847Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1840-1835Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
Multiple order strategy:
Strategy 2: Gold Callback1832-1834Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)
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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:
1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above
2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above
3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above
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