Guide Metallographer:2.21今日黄金走势分析，黄金正酝酿看涨动力

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking ahead to today and Tuesday(2month21day)：国际黄金亚市早盘先行窄幅盘整运行，美元指数开盘有偏强迹象，对其产生一定压力，周图信号显示短期的反弹预期较大，上方仍将关注中轨附近的105.60的目标，而会对金价造成压力增强的意愿，另外，金价也仍未突破60日均线阻力，故此日内来看，金价短期有偏向震荡走弱的趋势。


We will pay attention to the United States within the day2月份制造业和服务业PMI初值。虽然目前市场预期有所增强利空金价，但这两个行业的总体采购经理人指数(PMI)预计将低于50，表明私营部门的商业活动正在持续收缩。压力有限，但如低于预期的整体PMI数据，以及揭示私营部门就业人数下降的就业相关评论，可能令美元承压，并帮助金价小幅走高。


　　另外，本周重点将密切留意美国PCE物价指数、美国第四季度GDP修正值、美联储上次会议纪要以及美联储官员讲话等重要数据和事件，以从中获取有关未来货币政策前景的蛛丝马迹。


　　市场预计美国联邦基金利率将在7月达到略低于5.3%的峰值。再加上目前金价对于这些加息的利空因素越发减弱，所以，我认为短期内金价将保持震荡，直到美国经济数据显示经济活动放缓，但未来几个季度金价将会上涨，


　　基本面上，由于近期强劲的宏观经济数据和美联储官员的鹰派言论引发了美国债券收益率和美元的反弹，也减弱了市场对美联储可能将降息的想法，并打压黄金价格连续下跌，技术前景表明，黄金在向上修正之前还有进一步的下行空间，因而本周美国发布的数据应该有助于令金价形成回落的底部看涨支撑，关注进一步的低点支撑即可。


　　另外，上周CPI数据虽降幅不及预期，但整体趋势也仍保持着下降的前景，就算通胀再次加速升温，预计也难以再度刷新40年的高点，因而也不会再令美联储产生75个基点的加息力度。


　　所以综合来看，美联储掉期定价不管是否会在美联储2023year7月的政策利率峰值将达到5.25%后继续提高，还是开始转降息，市场对于美联储的讲话和政策反应也愈发减弱；根据通胀的降幅，从9.1下降到目前的6.4用了7个月时间，如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在24Year or25年。所以，今年仍然是震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Switzerland1Monthly trade account


　　16:15France2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:30Germany2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:30britain2Monthly manufacturing and service industryPMI


　　18:00Germany2monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　18:00eurozone2monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　19:00britain2monthCBIIndustrial order difference


　　21:30Canada1monthCPIMonthly rate


　　21:30Canada12Monthly retail sales rate


　　22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


　　23:00U.S.A1Annualized total monthly housing sales


Technical analysis of gold:


Trading was light on Monday, and the US market is closed for the President's Day holiday. Gold continued its strong trend of late Friday trading yesterday, continuing to fluctuate and rise, with a high point measuring pressure to1847On the first line, although the overall bullish expectation is retained, there is limited space, indicating that the short-term market is only a technical rebound and does not necessarily change the bearish expectation of the midline trend. From the trend of the intraday hourly chart, the upper part is1847There is pressure on the front line, and this position belongs to the daily level60From the daily pressure level, it can be seen that the short-term trend is still based on technical trends.


Currently, gold is60Daily line1845The first line is blocked, but the market on the hour chart is more inclined towards the small level head, shoulder, bottom, and neck positions that are expected to be under pressure1845Under pressure on the front line, a pullback adjustment is technically necessary, but currently the short-term bullish sentiment in the market is relatively strong, so there may not be much room for a pullback. It was originally expected that the top, bottom, and right shoulder positions would be1835-30Regional, but after digesting the high volatility of the intraday market, there may be a rise in the right shoulder. Pay attention to the following1834Frontline support testing can consider this position as an ideal retreat position. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1835Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.21Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1850-1855Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1845-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1835frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1837-1839Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1845-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1855frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above