Guide Metallographer:2.21今日黄金走势分析，金价扩大反弹维持震荡

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(2month20day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1840.61dollar/Ounces, highest price1847.29dollar/Ounces, lowest price1837.09dollar/Ounces, closing price1843.07dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　欧洲央行管委雷恩表示，2023year(Economics)增长可能在1%about.3月以后(continue)加息是合适的。欧洲央行可能会在夏季达到终端利率。欧元区有望避免经济衰退。没有看到工资-价格螺旋式上升。


　　高盛分析，将欧洲央行终端利率的预期上调至3.5%，预计包括欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔在内的政策制定者的立场将更加强硬。高盛预计欧洲央行6月份还会再加息25个基点，目前欧洲央行的存款利率目前为2.5%，政策制定者已表示有意在下个月再加息50个基点。最后高盛表示，欧洲央行5Monthly interest rate hike50个基点“仍有可能”，但目前认为加息25个基点的可能性更大。


　　彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰(Tom Orlik)表示，进入2023年以来的种种迹象显示，今年全球经济的前景正好于预期。现在看来，欧洲有望摆脱经济衰退，美国将在今年下半年发生衰退，中国经济正在出现强劲复苏。对于美国经济，欧乐鹰表示，他现在非常担心美国可能出现的灾难性债务违约。“我们的估算表明，如果市场对美国财政部失去信心，将会对美国经济增长产生极为重大的负面影响，甚至可能引发一场金融危机。”“拜登(美国总统)和麦卡锡(美国众议长)之间释放的最新信号表明，谈判空间是存在的，一场危机可以被避免。但考虑到美国国会当前的极度分裂，不幸的是，美国出现债务违约的可能性是无法被排除的。”欧乐鹰说。


　　荷兰合作银行表示，在强劲的美国经济数据发布后，2月份市场对美元的情绪有所改善，而且这种情况还会进一步延续。荷兰合作银行foreign exchangeStrategistJane Foley在一份报告中称，本月美国劳动力市场、通胀和零售销售数据强劲，这使得美联储发出的将在更长时间内维持高利率的警告更难以忽视。鉴于该行预计联邦公开市场委员会可能会将联邦基金利率目标区间的上限上调至5.5%，他们认为美元在年中仍有良好支撑的空间。


Geopolitical situation:


　　美国前国防情报局情报官员科夫勒表示，预计拜登的突访不会对俄乌冲突产生任何影响。她还称，普京应该会认为拜登此次访问将向泽连斯基施压，要求他与俄罗斯谈判达成和解，普京深知西方对乌克兰已经感到了十分疲劳，并且美国和欧洲正在耗尽其的武器储备。科夫勒表示，预计普京将继续施加军事压力，迫使乌克兰进行和平谈判，正在进行的军事冲突明天也可能会有所升级。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is79%(Yesterday was81.9%)Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is21.0%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is8.3%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is72.9%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is18.6%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Switzerland1Monthly trade account


　　16:15France2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:30Germany2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　17:30britain2Monthly manufacturing and service industryPMI


　　18:00Germany2monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　18:00eurozone2monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　19:00britain2monthCBIIndustrial order difference


　　21:30Canada1monthCPIMonthly rate


　　21:30Canada12Monthly retail sales rate


　　22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


　　23:00U.S.A1Annualized total monthly housing sales


Technical analysis of gold:


Trading was light on Monday, and the US market is closed for the President's Day holiday. Gold continued its strong trend of late Friday trading yesterday, continuing to fluctuate and rise, with a high point measuring pressure to1847On the first line, although the overall bullish expectation is retained, there is limited space, indicating that the short-term market is only a technical rebound and does not necessarily change the bearish expectation of the midline trend. From the trend of the intraday hourly chart, the upper part is1847There is pressure on the front line, and this position belongs to the daily level60From the daily pressure level, it can be seen that the short-term trend is still based on technical trends.


Currently, gold is60Daily line1845The first line is blocked, but the market on the hour chart is more inclined towards the small level head, shoulder, bottom, and neck positions that are expected to be under pressure1845Under pressure on the front line, a pullback adjustment is technically necessary, but currently the short-term bullish sentiment in the market is relatively strong, so there may not be much room for a pullback. It was originally expected that the top, bottom, and right shoulder positions would be1835-30Regional, but after digesting the high volatility of the intraday market, there may be a rise in the right shoulder. Pay attention to the following1834Frontline support testing can consider this position as an ideal retreat position. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1835Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


Technical analysis of gold:


Trading was light on Monday, and the US market is closed for the President's Day holiday. Gold continued its strong trend of late Friday trading yesterday, continuing to fluctuate and rise, with a high point measuring pressure to1847On the first line, although the overall bullish expectation is retained, there is limited space, indicating that the short-term market is only a technical rebound and does not necessarily change the bearish expectation of the midline trend. From the trend of the intraday hourly chart, the upper part is1847There is pressure on the front line, and this position belongs to the daily level60From the daily pressure level, it can be seen that the short-term trend is still based on technical trends.


Currently, gold is60Daily line1845The first line is blocked, but the market on the hour chart is more inclined towards the small level head, shoulder, bottom, and neck positions that are expected to be under pressure1845Under pressure on the front line, a pullback adjustment is technically necessary, but currently the short-term bullish sentiment in the market is relatively strong, so there may not be much room for a pullback. It was originally expected that the top, bottom, and right shoulder positions would be1835-30Regional, but after digesting the high volatility of the intraday market, there may be a rise in the right shoulder. Pay attention to the following1834Frontline support testing can consider this position as an ideal retreat position. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1835Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.21Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1850-1855Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1845-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1835frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1837-1839Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1845-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1855frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above