Tao Hongda:2.20Analysis of early trading strategies for gold and crude oil

　　goldMarket analysis:

　　2month17International gold prices continued to decline on Friday and hit last year's record12New low since the end of the month1818.20dollar/Ounces, as investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates after a series of strong economic data releases. The Federal Reserve even stated that,2Insufficient monthly interest rate hikes. Data released this week showing strong retail sales and high consumer prices in the United States seems to be driving a reassessment of expectations,The market believes that the Federal Reserve will become more hawkish, which is very detrimental to gold He pointed out that in this context, real interest rates have rebounded, so non yield asset gold has been declining. Several Federal Reserve officials stated this week that monetary policy needs to remain tight in order to lower inflation rates to the Federal Reserve's2%Goal. Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday(2month16day)The Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates more significantly at the beginning of this month.

Gold trend analysis:

Gold has shown weakness this week, without a major level of stabilization, and the upward trend is just a flash in the pan, which is a manifestation of weakness. The washing of gold prices, due to a rise but lack of stabilization, has led to a trend of market washing. Gold continued to be under pressure after breaking through the previous low and volatile range on the daily trend. The short-term moving average weakened and touched the previous daily line within the day1820After a small rebound near the support belt in the area, pay attention to the strength of the rebound at this position on the daily line. On the daily trend, prices have fallen below the previous low volatility range and are currently under pressure1850After a continuous decline, there are signs of starting to stabilize slightly, and there may be some room for rebound and repair in the short-term trend.

Currently4The hour linemacdThe bottom deviation is obvious, but the repair time varies, and the squeezing time of the deviation also varies. This time, it will obviously be a long process; Although deviating, one cannot immediately look for a reversal, and at the same time, one cannot blindly pursue a decline after refreshing a low;10The moving average and mid range track are still the best positions for multiple ambushes and bearish positions in the short term. If there is a large rebound in oversold, the limit is to touch below66The daily moving average will still be suppressed, and the main bearish trend will continue to rebound.

In addition, the hourly line is subject to overnight reception1845Suppressed, and there is a compression shape at the top. The original plan was to reverse extract the channel pressure (move down)1842）Continuing to be bearish, but helpless, the price went straight down without giving any chance to rebound; According to the guidance of the lower track of the channel, the primary support is1817-18On the front line, there are certain signs of rebound here, and whether there can be expansion and correction depends on whether we can stand on it10The moving average is the only way to have a chance to touch the middle track1831-32and66Daily moving average1838-40Therefore, there are two reference points for bearish sentiment along the trend; Since the channel is clearly failing, continue to be bearish at high points; On the daily trend, bearish positions continue to form and continue, andKIt can be seen that after each adjustment, the gold price will form a drop that breaks through the previous low. Currently, there is no sign of a stop in the daily decline. The conditions for the daily line to contain the stop in the decline are either a strong positive to regain the previous negative, or a continuous positive to stop the decline, so the daily line still has a trend of continued decline; In the short term, yesterday1818Support was formed on the first line, and gold prices rebounded slightly in the US market after consecutive low volatility.

Gold trading idea: opening next week1845If you don't break, you can be empty. If the bulls are strong, you can wait for them to rebound1853Near empty, stop loss1858Above, target1838-1830. Market pullback to1825There can be more nearby, stop loss1820, Objective1833-1838Near.

　　crude oilAnalysis of Today's Market Trends

Last Friday(2month17day)International oil prices have hit a new low in over a week as strong US economic data has heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve will further tighten monetary policy to address inflation, which may hit fuel demand.NYMEXTake a look at the crude oil below76.43USD. Analysts said: "The strong US data has intensified concerns about the Fed's interest rate hike and pushed up the yield of US treasury bond bonds, which has depressed the prices of oil and other commodities." Market analysts said that the US crude oil inventory rose to17A month high indicates that demand is weakening, leading to a drop in prices. The price of crude oil is also affected byPPIThe data and the strengthening of the US dollar triggered a sell-off in the stock market and led to a decline In the past few weeks, there has been a tug of war between the bullish and bearish sides in the crude oil market, with expectations of a rebound in demand from China, the world's largest oil importer, diluting concerns that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may trigger a US economic recession. International Energy Agency(IEA)This week, it was announced that China will account for nearly half of the increase in oil demand this year. But OPEC member states and partners such as Russia(OPEC+)The reduction in production may indicate a shortage of supply in the second half of the year.

Crude oil daily level fluctuations;MACDThe golden fork is damaged and has a tendency to become dead,KDJApproaching a dead cross operation, the rebound of oil prices in the previous trading day was hindered and fell back below the middle track of the Bollinger Line, and is currently being explored55Daily moving average support, close to falling all moving average support, increasing short-term downside risk. Please be aware2month9Daily low point76.51Nearby support, if the support is missed, increase the short-term bearish signal; Further support under the Bollinger Line track74.56Nearby,2month3Daily low point support at73.09Nearby,2month6Daily low point support at72.44Nearby. Defeat55Before the daily moving average, there is still a slight opportunity for bulls, above21Daily moving average resistance78.43Nearby,5The daily moving average resistance is also near this position. If this position can be regained, the short-term bearish signal will be weakened, and the overnight high resistance will be79.52Nearby,100Daily moving average resistance80.98Nearby. Overall, Tao Hongda suggests that the short-term operation strategy for crude oil today should mainly focus on rebounding from high altitude, supplemented by a pullback from low, with short-term attention from above77.8-78.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below75-74.5Frontline support.

Crude Oil Strategy: Crude Oil Recommendations77.5-77.8Short selling in batches on the first line, stop loss78.3, Objective76.3-76；