Tao Hongda:2.18Is gold and silver rebounding and repairing rising or falling next week? Trend points of next week...

Market interpretation:

The United States announced on Thursday1monthPPIThe data, creating the largest growth rate in seven months, suggests that the process of inflation in the United States may be full of twists and turns, and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased, indicating that the economy remains resilient against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials continue to deliver hawkish speeches, with Messer believing that inflation is still too high and further interest rate hikes are needed. Brad believes that the Federal Reserve needs to further raise interest rates to help lock in the trend of slowing inflation.

Friday(2month17day)International gold prices continue to decline and hit last year's record12New low since the end of the month1819Nearby, the reason is that investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates after a series of strong economic data releases. Federal Reserve officials even stated that,2Insufficient monthly interest rate hikes. Data released this week showing strong retail sales and high consumer prices in the United States seems to be driving a reassessment of expectations......The market believes that the Federal Reserve will become more hawkish, which is beneficial forgoldVery unfavorable. In this context, real interest rates have rebounded, so non yield asset gold has been falling.

In the beautiful United States1After the release of monthly non farm data, Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly delivered hawkish speeches, and this week's announcement of the United States1monthCPIData, retail sales data, andPPIdata(Tuesday to Thursday)Both have also shown strong performance, which has almost dispelled market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year and strengthened expectations for the Fed to further raise interest rates and maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. Gold has surged more than300The US dollar is expected by the market to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as well as betting on the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year, which is the main driving force behind the rise in gold prices. However, recent market views have clearly reversed, directly leading to the US dollar rebounding from a nine month low and continuously breaking a month high, while gold has fallen from a nine month high and continuously breaking a month low during the same period.

Analysis of Gold Technology and Next Week's Strategy:

Gold opened on Friday with a continued weak and volatile recovery, partly due to the need for the continuation of the overall downward trend, and partly due to the suppression effect of the sustained strength of the US index. Pull back below the European market period to1819Nearby, yes1820There was a breakthrough, but there was no effective break, and the US market rebounded. From the rebound state, there is still some strength in the short-term rebound momentum. The US index continues to rise sharply, and gold rebounded. This also indicates that the market sentiment has begun to change. There are doubts about the extreme strength of the US index, but even so, it is unlikely that there will be a strong reversal in the current rebound of gold, Technically and fundamentally, there are no conditions for a strong counterattack, and all gold is only looking at a rebound of oversold nature. The closing status on Friday will also determine the market sentiment at the beginning of next week, and gold will have a positive impact on the upside1845The trade-offs near the front line are relatively crucial, that is, if standing1845Above, market sentiment may shift towards stopping the decline, and there may even be a certain rebound at the beginning of next week. But it closed at1845Below, the market may still be weak and volatile early next week.

From the current situation, there is no weak to strong signal for gold, and the intraday rebound is only technical. Moreover, there has been no acceleration in the upward trend, so bears still maintain this trend. So, the rebound of gold remains mainly bearish. Even if there is a severe washing and lifting of the plate, it still remains empty and unchanged. The only criterion for a gold reversal is a weak to strong transition. Firstly, after accelerating the decline, rebound and break through the position of accelerating the rise and fall. Secondly, after the rally, the pullback will not break through the low. For bullish sentiment, retreat to1823Nearby, basically4Near the support of the hourly Bollinger Bands, gold is still in a rhythm of short-term volatility, breaking through the bottom and retreating. Therefore, bulls may not be suitable for excessive fighting to play against the possibility of a surge. At least next week, they will reverse and break through the surge1845The probability of a high point in the morning market is not high. As for whether we can make a strong rebound next week, we will see based on that.

After falling below the previous low volatility range, gold continues to be under pressure and the short-term moving average runs weakly, reaching the early stage1818After a slight rebound near the support belt, pay attention to the strength of the rebound at this position. stay4On an hourly level trend, prices have fallen below the previous low volatility range and are currently under pressure1845-50After a continuous decline in hourly trends, there are signs of slight stabilization in the area, and there may be some room for rebound and recovery in the short-term trend. Next week, you can follow below1818In the vicinity of the area, there is support. Considering that gold is not extremely weak, Tao Hongda suggests choosing high resistance positions as much as possible for gold trading early next week, with low resistance positions as a supplement. Follow Above Short Term1845-1850One line of resistance, pay attention below1820-1818Frontline support.