Guide Metallographer:2.17今日黄金走势分析，金价扩大跌幅加剧短线...

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(2month16day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1834.03dollar/Ounces, highest price1844.62dollar/Ounces, lowest price1827.43dollar/Ounces, closing price1834.40dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Thursday1monthPPIMonthly rate recorded0.7%Higher than market expectations0.4%, previous value is-0.5%； U.S.A1monthPPIAnnual rate recorded6%Higher than market expectations5.4%, previous value is6.2%。


　　评论称，在这周公布的CPI指数高于预期之后，市场普遍预计，1月份生产者价格指数将出现显著反弹。事实上，与CPI一样，PPI的表现也确实高于预期，环比上涨0.7%，推动同比上涨至6.0%。1月份的大部分上涨归因于能源价格的上涨(5%)，扣除食品和能源的商品价格上涨0.6%。相比之下，食品价格反而下降了1.0%。总而言之，这份PPI数据表明美国的通胀压力将比想象的更加持久，对美联储主席鲍威尔来说不是一个好的数据。


Thursday's announcement from the United States to2month11Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week19.410000 people, lower than market expectations2010000 people, the former value is19.610000 people.


　　评论称，最近的初请数据几乎保持稳定，并处于历史低位，这是劳动力市场持续紧张的一个迹象。尽管最近科技、金融和其他行业出现了裁员潮，但近几个月来初请人数一直保持在低水平。这可能是因为在劳动力市场需求超过现有工人的情况下，工人正在迅速找到新工作。最近的其他经济指标也表明，经济几乎没有放缓的迹象。由于消费者利用强劲的招聘和工资增长进行消费，1月份的零售额环比增长3%。所以尽管通货膨胀继续缓解，但它仍然处于高位，远远高于美联储2%的目标，这也表明美联储主席鲍威尔的工作还远未结束。


　　美联储官员美斯特表示，经济衰退不在我的预测中。利率需要继续向限制性水平迈进以遏制物价压力。不准备宣布在下次FOMC会议上美联储是否需要更大幅度的加息。对今年是否需要降息持怀疑态度，现在的主要焦点是加息。认为美联储今年不需要降低利率，现在还没有讨论何时暂停加息。如果通胀风险成为现实，美联储届时便可能需要继续提高利率，甚至如果条件允许，美联储可以加快加息步伐。


　　美联储官员布拉德表示，不排除支持3Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的可能性，曾在2月的会议主张加息50个基点。加息可以通过将通胀预期维持在低水平，进而帮助确立2023年通胀率下滑趋势。怀疑劳动力市场是否会像一些人预期的那样降温，但通胀仍可能下降，因为商业竞争强度和预期仍然很低。


　　高盛分析，鉴于更强劲的经济增长和更坚挺的通胀数据，高盛将美联储加息预期再上调25Basis points, currently estimated3Month5Month and6The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates separately in the month25A basis point increase in terminal interest rates5.25-5.5%。此外，巴克莱和预测公司LH Meyer也预计美联储6Interest rates will be raised in the month(25Basis points)。高盛经济学家估计，美联储青睐的核心PCEindex1月份将环比增长0.55%, year-on-year growth4.5%(高于前值4.4%)。瑞银预期为环比增长0.52%, year-on-year growth4.5%。巴克莱预期为环比增长0.47%, year-on-year growth4.4%。该数据将于下周五公布。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is81.9%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is18.1%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is15.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is69.9%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is14.7%。 reach6Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is48.6%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00Germany1monthPPIMonthly rate


　　15:00britain1Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment


　　15:45France1monthCPIMonthly rate


　　17:00eurozone12Monthly adjusted current account


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate


　　21:30Federal Reserve Barkin delivers a speech


　　23:00U.S.A1Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's overall pressure on gold technology1845Narrow amplitude oscillation operation at the low level of the checkpoint, small amplitude surge of the European market encountered resistance1845The first line of rapid decline and decline, with prices piercing down and piercing at night1830Arrival at the checkpoint1827Nearby, the price fluctuated again and rebounded, although it rose out of strong strength and reached a deep bottom in the early morningvRebound second touch1845The checkpoint did not settle at this position at the end of the day, and the roller coaster eventually fell back to1835Nearby report on the oscillating crossk,The overall price continues to fluctuate in a long and short range, washing and sawing, and suppressing the operation1845Below, it will be crucial for today's trend, with yesterday's low point1827We are currently in the key support zone for the starting point and rising point of the daily level conversion in the early stage. If the European market can further stabilize today1827-25The level rebounds upwards and stands firm1840It is expected that there will be a daily level rebound in the market above, otherwise, if further suppression is carried out1840Below the checkpoint, there will be further volatility and a continuation of bearish weakness, with gold falling below the previous volatility range on the daily lineKThe short-term moving average has maintained a weak downward trend under continuous pressure, and a small rebound within the day has just completed the technical form repair. There is a high probability that there is still room for further downward movement in the daily trend;


　　4During the continuation of the downward wave pattern in the hourly chart, there is no trend of a downward trend, a rebound, and a closing trend in the short term. It is not urgent to look at the bottom to stop the decline, as the formation of the trend takes time. Slow decline is also a decline, with short-term gains not regaining the previous day's high1845Previously, we maintained a weak and volatile downward trend. at present4The hour is in the second wave of decline and will fall back towards the thousand eight level, but the closer it approaches the thousand eight level, the greater the frequency of short-term repeated sawing. Choose a high altitude during the rebound, and promptly drop the bag after lowering.1Hour chart and30The minute chart shows distinct highs and lows, with two distinct1845Nearby under pressure, this position is the critical point for short selling in small cycles and will not stand today1845Still looking down. The short-term trend continues to be weaker as the hour level trend begins to break out of the previous low volatility range. Reference for today's operation1838Nearby empty order opportunities. The weekly closing may exacerbate the frequency of fluctuations. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1843-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1800Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.17Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1838-1840Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1825-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1808frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1808-1810Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above