Guide Metallographer:2.17今日黄金走势分析，金价日内小范围震荡

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Thursday(2month16day)，现货黄金持稳，但反弹空间受到抑制。有证据表明美国经济富有弹性，硬着陆可能性大幅降低，这可能为美联储进一步加息提供空间，尽管美联储不太可能重新呈现激进鹰派。周三(2month15day)公布的数据显示，美国零售销售在连续两个月下滑后于1月反弹，表明尽管借贷成本上升，美国经济仍保持韧性。加上周二(2month14day)According to published data, the United States1月通胀下降势头放缓，可能会给美联储进一步加息提供信心，从而在短期内对金价构成压力。美国经济继续运行良好，有非常强劲的劳动力市场，消费者也得到很好的支持，我们确实认为美联储还有一些工作要做。”


　　从技术角度来看，黄金隔夜日线价格收于1850美元下方，可能会打开通往1815USD and1800美元的大门。若市场抛盘进一步积聚，可能会证实这一预测。黄金逢低买盘在大幅下跌后进场，对经济衰退的担忧也为金价提供一些支撑，美元的温和修正也是如此。但黄金反弹正经历‘死猫跳’，面临美联储进一步加息的风险。金价阻力最小的路径依然是下跌，空头占据上风。


　　几位美联储决策者本周表示，需要更多加息才能将通胀率降至央行2%的目标。美联储政策制定者的言辞趋于强硬，至少在基调上发生了翻天覆地的变化。达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，由于劳动力市场“异常强劲”，美联储必须“做好继续加息的准备，持续时间比此前预期的更长”。里士满联储主席巴尔金称，如果通胀持续远高于2%的目标，也许将不得不采取更多措施。费城联储主席哈克表示，政策制定者可能需要将利率提高到5%以上，具体高出多少将在很大程度上取决于我们所看到的(data)。


　　随着美国经济衰退风险下降，任何关于信贷条件放松的想法目前正在一点一点地被排挤。货币市场预计美联储的目标利率将在7Month reached5.2%以上的峰值，上半年不会停止加息。如果美联储的资产负债表缩减幅度保持在目前的每月950亿美元，并且在整个周期内总计减少2.5万亿美元，要产生等效于900个基点加息的效果，政策利率可能不得不升高到6.5%。但大多数投资者根本不相信美联储会变得如此超级鹰派。美国银行对全球基金经理的最新月度调查显示，只有不到5%的受访者预计峰值利率将超过5.5%——大多数人的共识是在5.25%about.


　　美联储本轮加息周期的最终利率峰值之争可以休矣，应当更多关注美联储为了完成抗通胀任务可以在多长时间维持利率高位运行。但无论焦点如何改变，黄金正在失去1月份录得的涨幅。现货黄金下看1788美元日线上看，金价处在自1960US dollar starts to declineII浪走势。若跌破1828美元，后市有望进一步下探1788美元，它们分别是上行IWavelike38.2%斐波那契回档位和50%斐波那契回档位。IIWaves andIWaves are all from1615The upward trend of the US dollar opening(V)The sub waves of the waves.


Technical analysis of gold:


　　日内黄金波动不大，当前来回也就10美金波幅，黄金经过昨日大幅下跌后，行情进入震荡修整格局，黄金日内行情先反弹后回落，欧盘时段又冲高，如预期测压至1844/45一线，而后又再度回撤至1835附近。此位置不跌破，低位不宜再追空，而是要看反弹，上方到了日线均线位置，才是高空的机会。


　　从日内运行的节奏来看，虽然多头几番反弹，但都未能冲破关键压力，紧随而来的优势空单的强势打压，目前结构重心虽有抬升，但小时图级别依然还是偏空的状态，这也类似于周二晚间与周三早盘的行情走势，所以不排除今晚黄金再短暂反弹一下，继续陷入回落趋势的可能。且结合美指走势节奏来看，短线美指虽然有回调，但主趋势还是偏强的，即便目前还没有强势拉升动作，但这种偏强的预期对于黄金而言可能也会带来情绪上的打压。


　　四小时综合技术指标处于空头形态，布林轨道再度张口，依然保持向下倾斜，顾比复合均线短线组发散，与长线组同时处于空头排列。今日反抽依托1845一线阻力继续顺势主空下看回落，上方第一压力位1843-45Strong resistance suppression is also a weak watershed for recent bearish positions1850Pass, as long as the daily closing level fails to break through and stabilize1850关口，任何反抽均是做空机会，保持顺势主空节奏不变；综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1843-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1796Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.17Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1838-1840Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1825-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1808frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1808-1810Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above