Tao Hongda:2.16Real time market analysis of gold today and suggestions for crude oil price operation

　　goldMarket trend analysis;

Thursday（2month16During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated slightly and is currently trading in1841.5dollar/Around ounces, some of the overnight gains were due to the US dollar taking back. On Wednesday, the monthly retail sales rate in the United States recorded its largest increase in nearly two years, further raising market expectations for US terminal interest rates, the US dollar index, and the US10年期国债收益率升至近六周高位，对金价打压明显。美国1月零售销售创下近两年来最大增幅，此前曾连续两个月下降，民众购买了更多机动车和其他商品，这表明尽管借贷成本提高，但经济仍彰显韧性。周二公布的数据显示1月通胀攀升，再加上消费者支出强劲的迹象，可能会让金融市场的臆测升温，即美联储可能在夏季继续加息以推动国内需求降温。强劲的零售销售增长，加上周三其他数据显示1月工厂生产有所改善，推动经济学家提高对第一季度经济增长的预测，并宣称不会马上出现衰退。不过，担忧美联储可能将借贷成本升至比目前预期更高的水平，仍让人们预期下半年经济可能下行。整体来看，继强劲的美国非农数据、通胀数据之后，美国零售销售数据的靓丽表现，进一步提升了美联储未来进一步加息的必要性和更长时间维持高利率水平的预期，黄金多头屡遭重创，虽然仍有一些避险支撑和逢低买盘支撑，但金价后市面临进一步下行风险。

　　黄金技术面分析；黄金周三延续下跌收低，反弹1860Nearby under pressure, falling below1842Low point innovation, low to1830一带，弱势震荡下跌走法，边整理边修正式下跌。受累于美元走强及好于预期的美国经济数据引发对美联储可能进一步加息的担忧。黄金受挫。日线中阴线收低，继续保持调整格局。4小时图仍处于下跌二浪延伸当中，破位1860and1842继续延续震荡下跌，昨日下行之后尾盘在低位弱势整理，并没有出现下探回升收高，短期仍未见底，今日短线看进一步走低，下方留意千八关口的支撑可能出现短线反抽。结合二浪空间，从1890to1800也是局部的下行空间。回撤后可能伴随反复，但目前趋势还是弱势。保持反弹做空是目前主思路。小时图横向整理不见底部反弹，弱势修正过渡，也是为了进一步下跌蓄势。台阶性反弹高点在向下，综上所述，黄金今日短期操作思路上陶泓达建议上方短期重点关注1860-1865Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1823Frontline support,

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　2month16During the Asian trading session on Thursday, American Oil was trading at79.20dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday, US crude oil and gasoline inventories surged last week, the US dollar strengthened, and investors were concerned that rising interest rates would slow the economy and hit fuel demand; However, the decline was limited, and the market considered that the data adjustment led to a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, and the International Energy Agency(IEA)Raise global oil demand growth forecast. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)On Wednesday, it was stated that US crude oil and gasoline inventories surged last week, while distillate inventories decreased. As of2month10In the past week, crude oil inventories surged1630Ten thousand barrels, reaching4.714Billion barrels, yes2021year6The highest level since the beginning of the month. Analysts say that,EIAThe unusually large adjustment in crude oil supply in the data has led to a massive increase in inventory.EIALast week in Cushing, OklahomafuturesThe crude oil inventory at the delivery center has increased65.9Ten thousand barrels, also reaching2021The highest level since the beginning of the year. Last week, the refinery's refining capacity decreased38.310000 barrels/Day, the utilization rate of production capacity has decreased1.4个百分点。总体来看，油价短线受累于美元走强，美国原油和汽油库存飙升；但因IEA上调全球石油需求增长预测，且地缘局势不确定性风险，跌幅或受限，油价维持震荡观点。

　　原油技术面分析；原油昨日依旧十字K线震荡收盘，伴随下探回升收平，空间持续性不强，拉锯震荡是近期的主格调。4小时图局部停顿震荡当中，多空持续性不足。目前位置处于宽幅震荡区间内的中性位置，离上下轨都有一定距离。短线强弱不定，是蓄势摸高还是转换回落有待确认。在选择方向前，短线会反复上演昨日的拉锯过山车式。洗盘也为选择方向。综上所述，原油今日短期操作思路上陶泓达建议上方短期重点关注81.0-81.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below76.8-76.3Frontline support,