Guide Metallographer:2.16Today's gold trend analysis shows a strong decline in gold prices and a significant decline

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(2month15day)Significantly lower, opening price1852.12dollar/Ounces, highest price1859.92dollar/Ounces, lowest price1830.37dollar/Ounces, closing price1833.97dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States1Monthly retail sales rate recorded3%Higher than market expectations1.8%, previous value is-1.1%； U.S.A2Recorded by the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month-5.8Higher than market expectations-18, previous value is-32.9.


According to the Associated Press, US consumption has rebounded from last month's weak holiday shopping season, with sales in stores and restaurants growing at the fastest pace in nearly two years, highlighting the resilience of the economy despite rising prices and multiple Fed rate hikes. This growth is driven by a jump in car sales, as well as steady consumption in restaurants, electronics stores, and furniture stores. Some supply shortages that have led to a slowdown in car production have been alleviated, and more and more cars are gradually entering dealerships. The increase in inventory allows dealers to better meet the pent up demand for cars. Whether American consumers can continue to consume happily will help determine the economic trend this year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has raised the costs of mortgage and car loans, as well as credit card rates. Inflation also erodes workers' salaries and limits their ability to freely consume. However, despite facing various challenges, consumers still show resilience.


Commentary states that the United States1The monthly retail sales growth rate was the largest in nearly two years, indicating strong consumer demand, which may enhance the Federal Reserve's determination to continue raising interest rates despite sustained inflation. All13All retail categories saw growth last month, with cars, furniture, and catering experiencing significant growth. The report shows that American consumption2023The year has had a good start, rebounding from the slowdown in spending at the end of last year. The US labor market is resilient, with unemployment rates at historic lows and strong wage growth, allowing many Americans to continue purchasing goods and services despite rising borrowing costs and high inflation.


According to the Wall Street Journal, as job growth accelerates and inflation cools slightly at the beginning of the year, retail sales in the United States have significantly increased,1Monthly retail sales rate recorded3%。 Inflation, rising borrowing costs, and economic uncertainty led American households to reduce spending at the end of last year. But analysts say that,1The monthly non farm employment report was unexpectedly strong, and salary growth remains strong, indicating a good outlook for consumer spending in the near future. Some analysts believe that economic growth may accelerate.Naroff Economics LLCCEOJoel NaroffThe situation of consumers is quite good. When people are satisfied with their work conditions, it will be converted into consumer spending


Wednesday's announcement of the United States12Monthly commercial inventory rate recorded0.3%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of0.4%； U.S.A2monthNAHBReal estate market index recorded42Higher than market expectations37, previous value is35.


The comment states that the data recorded42Exceeding market expectations(37)This is consistent with the rumors that there has been an increase in American interest in buying houses since the beginning of the year. If the real estate market rebounds again(At present, it seems very likely that)It will affect5.25%The federal funds interest rate ceiling poses the biggest challenge. For two consecutive months, it has steadily increased, partly due to a decrease in mortgage interest rates, indicating that the housing market may be improving, despite builders continuing to cope with high construction costs and blockages in the supply chain of building materials.NAHBchairmanAlicia HueyThe country continues to face a severe housing shortage, which can only be solved by building more affordable and accessible housing. He also stated that the start of this year was better than the expectations of last autumn.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is87.8%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is12.2%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is20.1%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is70.5%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is9.4%。 reach6Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is47%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　21:30From the United States to2month11Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　21:30U.S.A1monthPPIAnnual and monthly rates


　　21:30U.S.A1Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


　　21:30U.S.A1Total monthly construction permits


　　21:30U.S.A2Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


The next day02:30Fed Brad delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


After a brief rebound yesterday, gold continued to decline and decline, with a slight drop below1830Nearby, overall decline within the day is close30The US dollar finally closed at a solid saturation negative line on the daily basis, falling below it throughout the day60Daily support. Gold continued to decline on Wednesday, ending lower and rebounding1860The checkpoint continues to decline and continue to decline, further breaking through the previous day's low point in the afternoon1843Continuing a very weak downward trend on the first line, the US market was ultimately weak and sideways1831-1837Regional shock consolidation, dailykThe line closed lower and broke through the middle of the day, with the overall price finally experiencing a unilateral bearish downward trend after a wide range of fluctuations and saw saws the previous day, and the closing was suppressed1845-50Extremely weak operation below, short-term break1850The downward space at the checkpoint has been completely opened up, and today we will rely on the counterattack1850Front line defense continues to follow the trend, looking down from the main air, with the top pressure position1843-45Strong resistance suppression is also a weak watershed for recent bearish positions1850Pass, as long as the daily closing level fails to break through and stabilize1850At the checkpoint, any backdraft is an opportunity to short, keeping the rhythm of the main empty position unchanged;


Combining with the trend of the hour chart, gold fell to1830After the first line, it has been basically in a low and narrow range of fluctuations, so it can only be used to stop the decline. The downward divergence of the hourly chart level moving average has further increased the market's bearish expectations, but currently gold has fallen to1830It is also expected that there will be a rebound with support, which is understandable. In the early trading session, gold experienced a rebound, but the expected rebound will not change the downward trend brought by yesterday's negative line, and its rebound space will be very limited. Above, focus on the low point of the previous wave of decline1843-45Nearby testing, and if combined with daily charts,1845Nearby is also the current60The daily line is in place, and yesterday the negative line fell through and fell below this level. It is reasonable to rebound from this level today to confirm the pressure. If this level is broken, the upper level should focus on it5Daily line1848-50Nearby pressure, if this position is also taken by the bulls, then the short term counterattack of the bulls can also form a trend. It is understandable for gold to see a rebound in the day, but the rebound amplitude will not be very large. Please pay attention to it above1844/45Nearby short pressure, high pressure above attention1848-50One area, still pay attention below1833-30Nearby support, but still retaining the market may expand the retreat space, to1825The possibility of a further decline in the vicinity still depends on the strength of the US index's rise. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1850-1852Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.16Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1848-1850Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1825frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1830-1832Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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