Guide Metallographer:2.16Analysis of today's gold trend, will gold rise if it is unable to reverse?

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(2month15day)，金价跌至一个多月来的最低水平，此前公布的美国零售销售和消费者价格指数(CPI)均高于预期，加剧了人们对美联储今年收紧货币政策的担忧。根据美国商务部的最新数据，继去年12Monthly decline1.1%Afterwards,1月份美国零售额增长3%Expected growth1.8%。数据发布后，黄金延续早些时候的跌势并刷新日低至1830.20The US dollar has fallen more than28美元。因美元指数走强，美国上月消费者价格下降势头放缓，美联储官员就利率问题发表强硬言论，加剧了投资者对美联储将坚持收紧货币政策的担忧。但考虑到潜在衰退前景，美联储很难重新加速升息，金价下跌势头很难变得更陡。顽固的高通胀将迫使美联储继续坚持其鹰派立场。一些美联储官员周二表示，美联储需要继续逐步加息以战胜通胀。这被认为是推动资金从以美元计价的黄金流出的一个关键因素。


　　美联储官员周二表示，美联储将需要继续逐步加息，并暗示在就业市场火爆的推动下，持续的物价压力可能会将借贷成本推高至他们此前的预期之上。黄金传统上被认为是一种通胀对冲工具，尽管利率上升会增加持有这种非收益资产的机会成本。美元指数上涨0.78%。美元走强使得以美元计价的金条对持有其他货币的买家的吸引力降低。美国1Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded5.6%, creating2021year12月以来最小增幅。受汽油和住房成本的推动，美国1After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.5%, creating2022year6月以来最大增幅。显示出美国通胀的顽固，通胀尚未结束，这意味着利率将长期保持高位，这对金价构成压力。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金日线级别：黄金早盘时段先震荡回弹，测压至5日线上方至1860一线后承压回修，刚好承压了原先预判通道下轨支撑1843，同时也是前期50%分割位置，不过收盘价仍站不上5日，当下日内一波下跌破位了1843，走了一波续跌，当前的大阴形态有一定概率将延续弱势下跌，1850一线会成为通道反压，当然最终需等形态落地；一旦还是当下大阴，明日1850下就得弱势延续看跌下去，依托5均线将一路走低；反之，尾盘拉升，收报长下影K，则还需观察下一日的形态来确认；短线近期思路上，反弹看跌依旧是主选，看反弹属于一定逆势，只有突破站上10均线才能有所止跌这轮弱势下滑，转震荡修正，届时才会出一个次高点再后市打压一波来终结短期的回调，等美联储宣布降息再展开牛市的多头拉升；这几日暂时以5Rihe10日作为承压点继续逢高看跌为主，创前低点就适当尝试博反弹，因为短周期处于底背离状态；


Gold4小时级别：反复承压中轨震荡慢跌，而对应macd却始终处于底背离，这种情况刚好和前期1Mid month to1月末的高位顶背离震荡慢涨相反，难度会开始加大；因为可能会反复出现破新低不延续，看似一波猛的V拉升结果又打回原形等情形；从1960-1616分割角度看，1828.5一线是382分割位置，一般每一个分割首次触及都会有所反弹，看力度大小和持续性来决定支撑作用如何；中轨一线或刺破下仍有反复的承压，即1850及上方要选择等压制看跌为主，而当前低位不宜追，存在反弹需求；


Gold1小时级别：即美盘时段跌至1830附近，虽有回弹，但幅度太小的状态，说明当前行情多头信心非常弱，很难获得利多支持，所以只能暂时视作为止跌，而未必能有回弹。另外小时图级别均线带目前也是再度向下发散状态，也进一步加强了短期内行情继续偏弱的可能。晚间操作上，目前行情虽然有止跌，但不宜对多头抱有太多希望，主思路还是尝试以择高空为主，但因为1830-25区域一直是此前预期的波段级别关键支撑，所以多单也可适度尝试，但仅限于超短线，见好就收，且将所能见到的反弹还是视作为空单参与的机会较好。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1850-1852Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.16Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1845-1848Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1835-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1825frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1828-1830Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above