Guide Metallographer:2.14Today's gold trend analysis, focusing on the United StatesCPIdata

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　黄金短期急跌后，在上周呈现下降旗形，这是一种下跌中继整理形态，一般后市金价会继续下跌。上周四，黄金向下突破下降旗形的下沿支撑，这加大了短期下跌风险，之后金价继续下跌，并在本周一，刷新一个月新低至1849美元。周二开盘，黄金震荡小幅上涨，处于一个月低位附近运行，表现相对弱势。


　　Wolfinance星级分析师指南金师认为，黄金进入2月份后，走势由强转弱，短期下跌风险持续增加，主要因美国1月非农数据，表现大幅好于市场预期，这削弱了投资者对美联储年内降息的预期，而这此前是支撑金价上涨的因素，在此之后，不断有美联储官员发表鹰派讲话，重申支持继续加息，这帮助美元反弹，令金价承压。


　　消息方面，美联储官员周一继续发表鹰派讲话，鲍曼表示，美联储需要继续提高利率，使通胀回到2%的目标水平，强大的劳动力市场和通胀放缓，令经济仍然有可能软着陆。


　　周二投资者重点关注，将在晚间公布的美国1monthCPI数据，鉴于之前三次CPI数据，通胀放缓速度超出市场预期，使得黄金大幅上涨，这令空方顾忌，限制金价下跌。


　　如果CPI数据显示，美国通胀增速放缓(符合或超出预期)，可能支撑金价上涨，如果通胀增速放缓不及预期，金价可能继续下跌。


　　除了CPI数据带来的影响，在数据公布后，多位美联储官员将接连发表讲话，如果官员们继续发表鹰派讲话，金价将面临较大的下跌风险。


Overall,CPI数据变数较大，投资者需要做好两手准备，不过鉴于美联储可能继续发表鹰派讲话，且技术面偏向空方，即便CPI数据支撑金价上涨，黄金也可能在之后冲高遇阻，重新面临下跌风险，所以我们在操作上，方向仍以看空为主。


Today's Focus Data:


　　14:30France Q4ILOunemployment rate


　　15:00britain12Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　15:00britain1Monthly unemployment rate


　　15:00britain1Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　18:00Eurozone Q4GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　18:00Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter


　　19:00U.S.A1monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　21:30U.S.A1After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


　　24:00美联储洛根出席活动问答


The next day00:30美联储哈克发表讲话


The next day03:05美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　美元和黄金是反比关系，美元跌，黄金就涨，美元涨，黄金就跌，但实际并非如此，实际上，美元和黄金是反相关关系，存在一定的方向性，但并不是绝对的，也就是说，美元的大趋势涨跌会影响黄金的涨跌，但短期内，美元的涨跌，可能跟黄金同步，而且这种情况不是个例，出现的情况很多。比如，周一午夜，美元在103.8附近压制慢跌，黄金也在跟跌，美元跌至103.1附近，黄金跌至1850，算是一个小区间同步的状态，按照理论来讲，美元走出下跌，黄金下方又有1853底部，应该会走出相对反弹，因此，单看美元做黄金交易并不可取。


　　从黄金日线结构上来看，虽然近期波动幅度不是很大，但基本持续位于5日线下方震荡运行，且昨日美指有回修，黄金也震荡回修收阴，说明市场情绪相对还是持偏空预期的，这与黄金自身技术结构偏空，以及市场对今晚美CPI数据的预期影响有关。目前黄金整体偏空格局有延续可能性，不过1860一线失守后，市场多头也表现出一定的活跃性，并不再是完全受空头掌控的状态，所以短期内行情出现暴跌的可能性减弱，但如果基本面强势利空，那么黄金再度暴跌回落也还是有可能的。只不过技术上来看，目前黄金下方预期的60Daily support1840临近，去年12月份市场炒作美联放缓加息时，行情偏激居高震荡的高点密集区域位于1830-25一带，行情如果回撤至此，理论上也会有反复的争夺，所以若抛开基本面的影响，单以技术结构来看，短线黄金可能会在1840止步下跌，抑或在1830-25附近止步下跌，但如果基本面有利空影响的话，则这两个支撑都可能会被砸破，后期下方回撤1800整数关口，以及200Daily line1780都是很有可能的。


　　结合小时图结构来看，昨日黄金下跌至1850一线也是符合预期的，后半夜行情略有回弹，但幅度依旧不是很大，这主要还是受市场对美CPI数据预期的影响，即存在利空黄金的预期，但是多头又有所防范，所以今日白盘黄金大概率会继续以低位偏弱震荡的方式呈现，晚间具体走势则需要根据美CPI数据再做相关引导。日内上方可关注1865-70短周期趋势线压力，下方则继续关注1850争夺，白盘时段行情如果冲破此区间，则选择暂观，待晚间根据美CPI数据再做调整。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1870-1873Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.14Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1870-1875Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1850-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1825-1830Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above