Guide Metallographer:2.14Today's gold trend analysis, USCPI数据重磅来袭

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(2month13day)Volatile closing price1864.85dollar/Ounces, highest price1866.35dollar/Ounces, lowest price1853.07dollar/Ounces, closing price1855.05dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　美联储理事鲍曼表示，美联储可能不得不继续加息以遏制物价上涨，这可能会减缓经济扩张并影响就业市场。距离实现价格稳定还有很长的路要走，我预计有必要进一步收紧货币政策，将通胀降至我们的目标。这样做可能会导致经济活动增长放缓，劳动力市场走软。尽管收紧货币政策以降低通胀存在成本和风险，但我认为，允许通胀持续下去的成本和风险要大得多。必须使联邦基金利率达到一个具有足够限制性的水平，而且需要在这个水平上保持一段时间，以恢复物价稳定。通胀没有希望的那么温和，劳动力市场持续紧张，给通胀带来了上行压力，尽管部分通胀分项因供给面因素改善而放缓。从现在到下次政策会议之间有很多数据，我们需要对此进行观察，加息的规模和最终的利率峰值取决于数据。经济前景和通胀前景仍然高度不确定，并且全球和国内因素加剧了这种不确定性，预计经济和地缘政治的发展以及即将发布的数据将继续令我们感到意外。


　　纽约联储表示，1月一年期通胀预期与去年12月相比保持在5%unchanged.1月三年期通胀预期为2.7%Last year12Month is2.9%。1month5年期通胀预期为2.5%Last year12Month is2.4%。1月预期房价将上涨1.1%Last year12Month is1.3%。一月预计家庭在食品和汽油上的支出将上涨。1月预期家庭收入降为3.3%Last year12Month is4.6%。1月预期家庭收入降幅为调查史上最大降幅。1月份家庭支出预期为5.7%Last year12Month is5.9%。


　　澳新银行分析称，将其对美联储终端利率的预期调高50Bps to5.25-5.50%，因美国经济增长强于预期。“我们现在预计联邦公开市场委员会第二季度将会继续收紧政策，除了我们已经预计的3月份加息之外，预计还会在5Month and6OfFOMC会议上分别加息25Basis points.


　　分析称，美联储对数据的极度依赖意味着，其将全部精力放在与其预测相符的经济数据上。在高度动荡的全球宏观经济环境下，这是一个冒险的策略。与普遍看法相反，过去几年的经验一再表明，经济发展很少是线性的。在2022年中期，通胀率并没有逐渐升至9%，而是突然加速。同样，市场也不应指望通胀率会以线性方式回落。最近，劳动力市场也变得难以解读。现在正处于一个独特的商业周期，不确定性和数据波动性无处不在。现在还不是美联储失去对货币政策叙述的控制的时候，因为在未来几个月，政策的重新调整无疑是必要的。


　　分析称，美联储的抗通胀之路可能不会是一帆风顺的，预计周二公布的CPI报告将显示物价涨幅较前月略有回升。受汽油价格上涨及其他多种因素影响，1Month USACPI可能增长0.5%，创下三个月来最大增幅。此外，美国劳工部调整CPI分项权重及计算方法带来的影响也会反映在1月份的数据中。在强劲的1月份非农数据公布后，如果CPI报告显示通胀压力挥之不去，将加大市场对通胀持续的担忧，并为美联储官员近期有关加息的评论提供更多支持。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is90.8%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is9.2%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is19.6%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is73.1%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is7.2%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　14:30France Q4ILOunemployment rate


　　15:00britain12Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　15:00britain1Monthly unemployment rate


　　15:00britain1Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　18:00Eurozone Q4GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　18:00Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter


　　19:00U.S.A1monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　21:30U.S.A1After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


　　24:00美联储洛根出席活动问答


The next day00:30美联储哈克发表讲话


The next day03:05美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　美元和黄金是反比关系，美元跌，黄金就涨，美元涨，黄金就跌，但实际并非如此，实际上，美元和黄金是反相关关系，存在一定的方向性，但并不是绝对的，也就是说，美元的大趋势涨跌会影响黄金的涨跌，但短期内，美元的涨跌，可能跟黄金同步，而且这种情况不是个例，出现的情况很多。比如，周一午夜，美元在103.8附近压制慢跌，黄金也在跟跌，美元跌至103.1附近，黄金跌至1850，算是一个小区间同步的状态，按照理论来讲，美元走出下跌，黄金下方又有1853底部，应该会走出相对反弹，因此，单看美元做黄金交易并不可取。


　　从黄金日线结构上来看，虽然近期波动幅度不是很大，但基本持续位于5日线下方震荡运行，且昨日美指有回修，黄金也震荡回修收阴，说明市场情绪相对还是持偏空预期的，这与黄金自身技术结构偏空，以及市场对今晚美CPI数据的预期影响有关。目前黄金整体偏空格局有延续可能性，不过1860一线失守后，市场多头也表现出一定的活跃性，并不再是完全受空头掌控的状态，所以短期内行情出现暴跌的可能性减弱，但如果基本面强势利空，那么黄金再度暴跌回落也还是有可能的。只不过技术上来看，目前黄金下方预期的60Daily support1840临近，去年12月份市场炒作美联放缓加息时，行情偏激居高震荡的高点密集区域位于1830-25一带，行情如果回撤至此，理论上也会有反复的争夺，所以若抛开基本面的影响，单以技术结构来看，短线黄金可能会在1840止步下跌，抑或在1830-25附近止步下跌，但如果基本面有利空影响的话，则这两个支撑都可能会被砸破，后期下方回撤1800整数关口，以及200Daily line1780都是很有可能的。


　　结合小时图结构来看，昨日黄金下跌至1850一线也是符合预期的，后半夜行情略有回弹，但幅度依旧不是很大，这主要还是受市场对美CPI数据预期的影响，即存在利空黄金的预期，但是多头又有所防范，所以今日白盘黄金大概率会继续以低位偏弱震荡的方式呈现，晚间具体走势则需要根据美CPI数据再做相关引导。日内上方可关注1860-62短周期趋势线压力，下方则继续关注1850争夺，白盘时段行情如果冲破此区间，则选择暂观，待晚间根据美CPI数据再做调整。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1860-1863Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.14Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1860-1862Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1850-1840Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1825-1830Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:The market is constantly changing every day,We have a strong analysis team, and every order we make is carefully considered and judged,To ensure that every order can be profitable and eliminated!Two to three orders per day do not require overnight prosperity,Just ask for the safety of falling into the bag!Profit is very high,I scored nine points alone,One point depends on luck,Eight points rely on strength!One or two days is luck,What about that week?Two weeks?Whether it is within the circle or in a group strategy,Or major financial websites,Team teachers are all current price lists!Daily analysis team technical guidance group, real-time announcement of daily market trends and push notifications,Real time current price list: Each entry is reasonable, evidence-based, publicly available, and can be accessed for free for group experience and inspection!


　　(Add Guide Gold Master（WX:zns83721 QQ:3096653915）After,Free application for direct group experience. Daily current price3-5single)I solemnly promise to add my friend to the guide's gold teacher,Just let me shout if you want me to,I can also tell you the correct single making techniques and mentality,Various solutions for lock orders. This is the key to turning your losses into profits!


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:


① Daily updates:Market trends and intraday reminders,Opportunities for warehouse building.


② Featured columns:Private Q&A,solution τ,Analyze the trend of the day.


③ Welfare delivery:Golden Short Line Opportunity Layout,Continuous tracking(Band opening)。


④ New fan benefits:Trading tactics《KThe King of Online Trading,Teach you how to do a good job in the short term


Non personal firm offer customers, providing general direction and expectations. Trend analysis and operational ideas are updated every day. Those who need to assess their strength can go and see them, and those who need to see suggestions can follow the guide. The gold engineer can go and see them on their own without charging. Once you have considered it, you can proceed with the firm offer. If you feel that I cannot help you or have any questions, you can continue to investigate, so as not to waste everyone's time with each other. After all, time is precious, It's not for waste.


Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above