Tao Hongda:2.14The gold trend is likely to continue to decline, can the crude oil station be on the medium track...

　goldTrend:



Monday（2month13During the Asian session, spot gold slightly weakened and is currently trading in1859.55dollar/Around ounces, because last Friday the US Department of Labor raised the US12monthCPIAfter the data, the market expects the United States1The monthly inflation rate may rebound, providing upward momentum for the US dollar10The yield of treasury bond also stayed near the high level of more than one month before the year, which put pressure on the gold price. However, no significant economic data was released on this trading day, with the United States on TuesdayCPIBefore the data was released, the market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The geopolitical situation is relatively tense, and some central banks have previously increased their holdings in gold, but there is still a possibility of buying on dips to support the gold price. There is still a possibility of maintaining a volatile trend in the short term.



During the golden day, the overall pattern of volatility remained weak, and the early market was initially1856Nearby support rebounded, with pressure on the daily line due to midday gains5Daily line1866The first line fell back and hit a new low again in the evening1854On the front line, the overall state is still in line with expectations and showing a weak state, which is mainly a qualitative change in market sentiment after the previous sharp decline. Market sentiment has turned bearish, but the market has retreated again within the day1854After the first line, there was a rebound again, indicating that the bulls are no longer in a state of being left to be slaughtered. However, although the bulls have counterattacked, they do not have the conditions to reverse and rebound, even on Tuesday nightCPIIf the data is bullish on gold, bulls may not have the conditions for a strong upward counterattack, as the overall trend has been qualitatively adjusted.



At a small level, gold continues to see weak fluctuations, with a focus on the upper level5Daily line1867/68The main idea for testing is Tao Hongda's suggestion to focus on holding short positions and selecting high and short positions, but try to reduce positions and participation frequency as much as possible to prevent potential riskscpiPrior to the data, there was a risk of abnormal market sentiment. Radicalism continues and can wait for a rebound1865、1867/68Nearby light warehouse short space, wait for stability1870Manual stop loss above or set stop loss1873Still looking down at the goal1860-55Area, or partial reduction, down to1852-50Continue to reduce positions in the region.



Silver trend:



The silver market opened slightly lower last week22.2After the position, the market first rose and reached its highest point on the weekly chart22.6The position of the market has been sorted out in a large range, and the weekly minimum has been reached21.8After the position was sorted out, the weekly line finally closed at21.9After the position, the market closed with a spindle shape with an upper shadow line longer than the lower shadow line, and even after this shape ended, there was still downward pressure this weekCPIAn opportunity for data to break upward is evident23High point, but visible if breaking down with the trend20.8Low point. The short-term operation within the day is mainly based on a stable wait-and-see approach, and we will wait for the data to be released before layout.



　　crude oilTrend analysis:



Crude oil slightly rose on Monday and is currently trading at79.34dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices rose nearly last Friday3%Benefiting from the price caps imposed by the West on Russia's crude oil and fuel, Russia has announced plans to reduce oil production next month. Overall, although Saudi Aramco will3Full supply of crude oil to Asian refineries as per contract per month, but Russia has announced plans to reduce oil production next month, or to lead the trend of oil prices in the medium term. In addition, with seasonal increases in oil demand in the northern hemisphere after warming weather and the United States re increasing strategic crude oil reserves, the downward risk of oil prices is reduced and is expected to return80dollar/Above the barrel.



The decline of crude oil in the Asian and European markets today has reached the short-term support zone. Currently, it is necessary to see if there is a stabilizing signal at this position to support the continued rise of oil prices. Of course, it is also necessary to consider that if it falls below, it means that72.25~80.33The possibility of the periodic rebound ending. Recommendations for crude oil operations78.65Buy, risk control78, Objective79.50-80.30。