ATFXUS index: Fed officials spoke intensively,2022The monetary path becomes clearer in

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Barkin said: While we are trying to reduce inflation, it is meaningful to turn more cautiously (monetary policy). That is to say, the interest rate increase policy of the Federal Reserve will continue and will not be easily changed. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said that if we want to raise interest rates to5%It should be added to that position as soon as possible and then maintained. The latest US benchmark interest rate range is4.25%~4.5%, distance5%There are still goals75~50The range of basis points, which means that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice in the first quarter of this year. The single rate increase may be50Base point25基点。费城联储主席哈克表示，我们单次加息75个基点的日子肯定已经过去了，今后加息25个基点是合适的。哈克对美联储加息路径的阐述更加清晰，2023年首次加息幅度有可能低于市场预期的50基点。果真如此的话，利率决议当天，美元指数大概率将出现超预期的下跌。

悬念在于今年二季度之后的美联储货币政策路径和美元指数走势，截至目前尚无美联储官员对此发表看法。加息25基点之后，下一次决议显然是停止加息，维持5%左右的高利率状态。那么，美元指数会因为利率保持不变而持续震荡，还是继续下跌？我们认为后者出现的概率更高。因为2023年美国经济有可能出现衰退，尤其是在二季度之后。

经济衰退的原因显而易见：高通胀叠加高利率。高通胀不利于消费，高利率不利于投资，两种负面影响共同作用下，美国的劳动力市场有可能出现问题。月初公布的最新一期非农就业报告显示，美国最新失业率3.5%，处于健康状态；月度新增非农就业人口22.3万人，高于预期值，表现良好。这表明，当下的美国宏观经济依旧增长强劲，没有出现经济衰退的苗头。但是，债券市场已经有资金押注美联储降息。6个月期美债收益率最新值4.83%，一年期美债收益率最新值4.69%，长期债券收益率反而低于短期债券，倒挂迹象明显。历史经验看，债券市场利率倒挂往往预示着经济衰退即将来临。由于债市倒挂的临界期为6个月，而此前为1年，所以债券市场所押注的经济衰退时间点正在向前移动。

遏制通胀是目标，保证就业是底线。如果今年下半年美国经济衰退影响到非农就业报告数据的良好表现，美联储大概率将开启宽松货币政策，亦即降息。降息的力度将取决于非农数据的趋坏程度。宽松货币政策将会加重美元指数的空头走势，所以2023年二季度之后，美指也很难维持震荡态势，全年持续下跌的可能性极高。

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2023-01-13