2023Ten guesses of domestic futures market in

　　2022The year was a year when the global economy encountered headwinds. Major events such as the epidemic, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a global economic recession. The downward pressure on China's economy increased, and the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening remained unresolved.2023In this year, the tone of economic development remains to strive for progress while maintaining stability, and to prioritize stability.futuresThe promulgation and implementation of the Derivatives Law have further improved the legal system of the futures market, and subsequent supporting regulations still need to be supplemented. expectation2023In this year, the development prospects of the futures market are promising, and the pace of innovation in futures products and tools is expected to accelerate. The further expansion of futures products has become a common expectation among industry insiders. The development of digital technology is accelerating, the futures industry model is constantly innovating, and intelligent regulatory technology has become an inevitable trend. The construction of futures culture needs to keep pace with the times, build a good cultural ecology of the futures industry, and promote sustainable development of the futures market as a new proposition for industry development.

　　The domestic economy is seeking progress while maintaining stability, and commodity adjustments and repairs are being made

　　2023The development of the domestic economy in this year will mainly highlight the word "stability", the macroeconomic environment will improve, and the economic growth rate will rebound.

In terms of macro policies, China will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies. With the optimization of prevention and control policies and the implementation of various measures to stabilize growth, the impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy is likely to weaken. After the initial buffering stage, the economic growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be higher than expected, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the back2022With a low annual base, various macroeconomic indicators in China will rebound. Residential consumption is gradually recovering, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain stable growth2023yearCPIMove up gently,PPIStill running weakly. The Federal Reserve's slowdown in interest rate hikes appropriately alleviates external pressures on China's economic development, while domestic stable growth policies provide corresponding support for demand recovery. Overall,2023In this year, China's economy will continue to develop steadily and steadily.

Influenced by multiple factors such as the impact of the COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, and energy structural contradictions,2022Since the beginning of the year, the volatility of commodity prices has intensified. expectation2023In the year, the economic cycles of China and the United States will once again be misaligned, global inflation will fall, and the commodity market may be in a continuous process of adjustment and repair. Commodity prices may experience a decline due to the impact of the global economic recession. In terms of black color,2023At the beginning of the year, strong expectations will dominate, maintaining a dual decline in supply and demand throughout the year, and the overall supply trend will be loose. Expected coking coal and coke2023The price center of the year has shifted downwards; The overall supply of iron ore is becoming loose, with improvements in both supply and demand, and the price center will shift downwards. In terms of energy,2023Globalcrude oilThe total supply is expected to increase steadily, and the growth rate will slow down. However, the OPEC report indicates that with the improvement of the Chinese economy, there is great potential for economic growth, and the demand for international crude oil market may increase significantly. In terms of agricultural products,2022Under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, the market fluctuated violently and prices continued to rise. With the decline in global demand, the fluctuations narrowed, and it is expected that2023The overall annual fluctuation may fall back. But with the continuation of geopolitical conflicts and changes in extreme weather, the risk of food supply still exists. The situation on the supply side of oilseeds is improving. With the recovery of imported soybeans in port and the gradual resumption of downstream stocking pace, the tight supply situation will be alleviated, and there is a strong expectation of a decline in soybean meal prices. The supply of live pigs will gradually become loose, and with the recovery of catering consumption, the overall consumption of pork will have a significant increase,2023After the holiday effect at the beginning of the year, the price of pigs is likely to show a downward trend, with a pattern of high prices in the front and low prices in the back throughout the year.

　　Accelerated expansion of futures products, potential gaps in shipping derivatives

With the promulgation and implementation of the Futures and Derivatives Law, the legal shortcomings of the futures market have been filled, accompanied by the accelerated expansion of futures market varieties.2022Newly launched varieties throughout the year16Including2Futures varieties14individualoptionVariety. Among them, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange2022At the end of the year, industrial silicon futures and options were listed, which is not only the first variety listed for trading, but also the first new energy metal variety in China. It is of great significance in supporting the development of China's new energy industry such as photovoltaics and building a green and environmentally friendly ecosystem. As of2022By the end of each year, China's listed futures and options have reached110The integrity of the main products has been further improved.

Outlook2023In the year, various exchanges will closely follow the national strategic direction and industrial development needs, continue to launch various futures and option products, gradually improve the coverage of futures products and the option coverage of listed futures varieties, and continuously improve the futures and option variety system to adapt to the development of the real economy. Zheng Shangsuo will proceed in an orderly mannerPX, bottle slices, caustic soda, propylene, chickenBPIBuilding a more complete and effective variety tool system for futures research and development and listing work; Da Shang Exchange will accelerate the listing of futures products such as recycled steel raw materials and container transportation capacity, and promote the research and listing of futures products such as dried chili peppers, tea seeds, logs, ethanol, pure benzene, sulfur, glacial acetic acid, petroleum coke, as well as options such as styrene and ethylene glycol; The previous exchange will accelerate the listing of energy products such as natural gas, refined oil, and electricity with the dual carbon goal and green development as the driving force. At the same time, it will actively layout the development of new energy products such as power battery materials, hydrogen, and ammonia; CICC will enrich the supply of varieties and build a financial derivatives system with a wider coverage of underlying spot assets; Guangzhou Institute of Science and Technology will continue to study and launch major strategic varieties such as carbon emission rights and electricity, innovative varieties such as China Securities Commodity Index, energy and chemical industry, feed breeding, steel mill profits, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium, rare earth, platinum, palladium and other industrial characteristics related to green and low-carbon development, coffee, sorghum, indica rice and other regional characteristics with the characteristics of the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area and the "the Belt and Road", as well as products linked to each other in the international market.

For a long time, China's shipping market has lacked necessary price risk management tools. In recent years, the tense geopolitical situation and sustained high inflation have led to drastic fluctuations in international shipping prices. Shipping industry chain enterprises face significant risk exposure in their operations, and the market is eagerly anticipating related shipping derivatives. On the one hand, the container transportation capacity futures of Da Shang Suo2019The annual project is approved, and the contract is based on the container capacity of specific shipping routes, which will be delivered in physical form. The preparation work for listing has been completed; On the other hand, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will also deepen cooperation with the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, actively promote the listing of shipping index futures, and play a good role in the functions of shipping index futures. In addition, the research and development of the bulk cargo freight index and index futures by Dashang have also been put on the agenda. The launch of shipping derivatives will fill the gap in domestic shipping derivatives and service derivatives, enhance China's price influence in the international shipping market, and also provide effective risk management tools for domestic and foreign shipping market related enterprises to avoid price fluctuations and optimize the allocation of shipping resources.

　　The demand for risk avoidance is on the rise,foreign exchangeFutures are timely

Throughout2022In the year, the overall volatility of the foreign exchange market was severe, and the US dollar index briefly hit nearly20A new high in recent years. The RMB exchange rate fluctuates repeatedly,9month28On the day, the offshore USD/RMB exchange rate fell below7.2, creating2011The lowest value since the release of offshore RMB data in, with onshore RMB hitting a new record2008New low since the beginning of the year. The exchange rate fluctuates significantly in both directions, and the demand for domestic and foreign enterprises to avoid exchange rate risks has increased. Faced with the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, more and more listed companies are joining the ranks of hedging. As of2022At the end of the third quarter of the year, there were already999Home physical industryAListed companies have issued hedging related announcements, with a total of approximately2270The number and scale of participation have increased compared to the previous year, and currently the proportion of private capital participation is relatively high. The vast majority of listed companies only engage in foreign exchange hedging, while a small number of listed companies simultaneously engage in foreign exchange hedging and commodity hedging. In fact, the most convenient tool for conducting foreign exchange derivative trading business should beForeign exchange futures. Due to the imperfect financial futures product system in our country and the lack of foreign exchange futures as an important product in the product series, enterprises can only use tools such as forward foreign exchange settlement, foreign exchange swaps, and foreign exchange options for foreign exchange hedging business, which limits convenience and liquidity to a certain extent. At present, if foreign exchange futures are used, trading can only be done through offshore markets in Hong Kong or Singapore, which poses greater risks and higher requirements for enterprises.

　　2022year11month18On the same day, the central bank optimized its foreign exchange risk management policy, further expanded the foreign exchange hedging channels for foreign institutional investors, and relaxed restrictions on foreign investors and sovereign institutional investors. With the acceleration of China's internationalization process and the expansion of the scale of RMB assets invested by overseas funds, the risk management of foreign exchange rates is becoming increasingly urgent for Chinese import and export enterprises, and the management requirements for foreign exchange risks are higher. It is timely to promote the listing of foreign exchange futures. In the absence of foreign exchange futures, it is very difficult for China's commodity market to obtain international pricing power, and international futures varieties cannot be separated from the protection of foreign exchange futures. The prospect of China's financial futures opening up to the outside world is promising, and there is a high potential demand in the domestic market. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to timely promote the listing of domestic foreign exchange futures.

　　The dust of futures legislation has settled, and corporate hedging is once again supported

Futures and Derivatives Law2022year8month1Starting from today, after nearly thirty years of ups and downs, the legislative work in the futures market has finally settled. At present, the legislative work of the Futures and Derivatives Law has come to an end, but there are still supporting provisions that need to be improved after the promulgation of the law. Subsequent relevant departments should consider safeguarding the development of the futures market and regulating market behavior when introducing relevant measures.

The introduction of the Futures and Derivatives Law clearly encourages physical enterprises to engage in risk management activities such as hedging in the futures market, clarifies the exemption of position limits for hedging, and supports the way enterprises participate in hedging and hedging in terms of policies. expectation2023In the year, relevant departments will further introduce corresponding measures to promote the full understanding of the functions and values of the futures and derivatives markets by the whole society, and promote more industrial clients and enterprises to use the futures and derivatives markets for risk management activities such as hedging. Relevant departments can introduce some preferential support measures for risk managers in practice to enhance the confidence of enterprises in risk management. In the future, the proportion of physical enterprises participating in risk management activities through the futures market will continue to increase.

The Futures and Derivatives Law has also expanded the business scope of futures companies, but the law only clarifies the status of futures companies as brokers, without clearly granting them the legal status of traders. As a result, the futures companies that understand futures the most cannot engage in futures and can only engage in a single brokerage business. In the future, the introduction of the Futures and Derivatives Law should serve as an opportunity to further endow futures companies with legal status as traders, enabling them to fully play their due roles and better utilize the functions of discovering prices, managing risks, and allocating resources in the futures market.

　　The trend of digital transformation and the opening of a new chapter in financial regulation

The accelerated development of digital technology and the continuous innovation of the futures industry model are of great significance in promoting the integration of financial technology and the futures industry. However, the digital transformation of the futures industry is still in its early stages, and the outlook is promising2023In this year, institutions within the industry will further seize new opportunities for digital development, actively carry out pilot projects for financial technology innovation, integrate data from both inside and outside the market, commercialize and productize data, and lay the foundation for digital transformation. With the support of financial technology, futures exchanges will accelerate business processing efficiency, build safe and reliable infrastructure, and effectively improve risk control levels; Futures companies can expand in the direction of Internet business, use first-class information systems, provide Internet products, and also use innovative trading methods such as modern Internet technology and digital technology empowerment. In the future, the futures industry will continue to deepen the integration of technology and business to adapt to new situations, and work together to promote the digital transformation and upgrading of the industry.

With the acceleration of China's financial opening-up process, the requirements for financial regulation are also increasing. The era of digital financial regulation has arrived, and regulatory compliance is increasingly emphasizing data. The intelligent technology of regulation has become an inevitable trend. At present, China's futures exchanges have embarked on financial technology+Regulate the new track of technology, and collaborate with data centers and build their own data centers to explore technology risk prevention and control measures. expectation2023In this year, it is the trend to leverage the functions of financial technology and innovate the regulation of futures and derivatives markets. Various institutions in the futures industry will keep up with the pace of digital development, orderly promote the construction of major infrastructure such as big data platforms, build a market supervision system based on digital technology, continuously strengthen innovation supervision, enrich regulatory toolboxes, strengthen the supply of scientific and technological supervision systems, enhance the basic capabilities of regulatory technology, and safeguard the innovative development of the futures market.

　　Focusing on developing over-the-counter derivatives and taking risk management to the next level

With the increasing demand for risk management, the asset size of risk management subsidiaries in the futures industry continues to expand. As of2022year10At the end of the month, the total assets and net assets of risk management subsidiaries in the futures industry were1479.25RMB100mn388.84100 million yuan, year-on-year increase21.9%And22.3%. Among them, the development of over-the-counter derivatives is more prominent, with only2022In the first half of the year, the nominal principal of over-the-counter options business exceeded6000100 million yuan, year-on-year growth58%.

The development of over-the-counter derivative markets relies more on futures companies and other professional institutions, in which futures companies can play a significant role. expectation2023In the year, it will become a trend for futures companies to expand their business beyond the exchange. On the one hand, customer investment needs are becoming increasingly diversified, and over-the-counter derivatives, due to their ability to effectively meet differentiated and refined investment needs, will be more favored by market investors. It is expected that the market volume will be huge, and the over-the-counter derivatives market will flourish. On the other hand, futures companies will continue to leverage their risk management advantages by flexibly utilizing over-the-counter options, forwards, swaps, and other over-the-counter derivatives and their investment portfolios, helping companies lock in costs, hedge price risks, and promote efficient circulation and allocation of commodities and factors. In the future, the development of both over-the-counter and over-the-counter markets may gradually begin to keep pace, including over-the-counter options, forwards, swaps, and insurance+The development potential of over-the-counter businesses such as futures, including rights trading, basis trading, and spot trading is enormous. Compared to traditional futures and cash services, over-the-counter platform services can provide users with a more efficient and convenient experience, and futures companies have more room to play.

　　The differentiation of futures asset management is severe, and the head effect is becoming increasingly apparent

From2012Since the beginning of this year, the asset management business of futures companies has gone through a decade of ups and downs and has entered a period of steady development. The introduction of the Futures and Derivatives Law has also provided legal support for it. According to the mid-term agreement statistics, as of2022year11At the end of the month, there are129The company is engaged in asset management business, with a net asset size of3400.94Billion yuan, stable development. At the same time, in terms of product management methods, the asset management business of futures companies is mainly based on proactive management, with a proactive management oriented product scale2159.24100 million yuan, proportion63.5%; Scale of commodity and financial derivative products314.42100 million yuan, proportion9.25%. Net profit from asset management business of futures companies is approximately2.3RMB100mn

At present, the investment management service capabilities of institutions in the asset management industry have significantly improved. However, within the industry, the differentiation of asset management business among futures companies is constantly intensifying, with extremely high industry concentration. The management scale of futures companies ranked in the top ten in asset management business management scale has accounted for the entire industry77.14%The industry still faces many challenges in the future. expectation2023In recent years, the leading effect of futures asset management business has become increasingly apparent, and there is great pressure for industry differentiation. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the asset management business of futures companies will grow together in competition. Top companies should continue to leverage their advantages, enhance their comprehensive management and service capabilities, expand their asset management scale, and build core competitiveness; Futures companies with smaller business scales need to explore their own characteristics, enhance internal strength, and provide differentiated products for the market. The entire industry will work together to create a diversified product line, achieve coordinated development of multiple businesses, and meet the personalized needs of different investors.

　　Firmly opening up to the outside world and continuously improving internationalization level

　　2022year9month2On the same day, four domestic futures exchanges simultaneously issued announcements, clarifying that qualified foreign institutional investors and RMB qualified foreign institutional investors can participate in trading in the Chinese futures market. The first batch of futures and option varieties involved are jointly owned41Number. As of2022year11month30In Japan, specific varieties are shared within the country702Opening an account for a foreign trading client. On a single variety, overseas traders2022The highest proportion of annual transaction volume is27.35%The highest proportion of daily average holdings is34.37%. This not only demonstrates the strong interest of qualified foreign investors in the Chinese commodity futures market, but also marks the further deepening of China's futures market in terms of opening up to the outside world.

Entering a new stage of development, the pace of China's futures and derivatives markets opening up to the outside world is accelerating. Our country already has17The introduction of certain varieties to overseas traders has further deepened the level of internationalization. In the future, futures companies, as important institutional carriers for overseas traders to enter China's domestic futures market, will have great potential. Introducing foreign futures companies to expand their business within China, while excellent futures companies make corresponding layouts overseas, enhancing the attractiveness of the futures market to foreign investors and enhancing the international influence of the futures market.

　　Ensuring the security of strategic resources and ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities

　　2022year11Month, onG20At the summit, China proposed that "food and energy security are the most urgent challenges in the global development field", and the key to solving the problems of food and energy supply chains lies in "strengthening market supervision cooperation, building commodity cooperation partnerships, and building open, stable, and sustainable commodity markets.". The Central Political Bureau meeting and the State Council executive meeting have repeatedly called for high attention to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices, to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of commodities, and to maintain stable economic operation.

Outlook2023Expanding domestic supply and improving the country's reserve system will be the main focus of policies in the year. The new pattern of China's dual circulation economy is dominated by internal circulation, while in the commodity market, it is likely to be dominated by external circulation. China is the largest importer and consumer of various commodities, and some important resource-based products have a high degree of external dependence, requiring a large amount of imports. Firstly, in the current situation of high external dependence, it is necessary to coordinate and increase import regulation efforts, maintain the multilateral international trade system, promote the diversification of China's import sources, and reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions. Secondly, to ensure the supply security of bulk commodities, it is necessary to stabilize the planting area and yield of agricultural products, and maintain sufficient grain quantity and stable prices; Encourage the full release of high-quality energy and mineral production capacity, and ensure the secondary utilization of resources; Improve the reserve adjustment mechanism, implement a strategy of reducing losses and saving resources throughout the entire industry chain, and reduce waste through intensive conservation. Thirdly, we should accelerate the smooth flow of logistics and transportation links, reduce the problem of freight increases caused by capacity shortages and price increases caused by poor cross regional allocation of goods; And establish corresponding commodity logistics platforms to effectively reduce the problem of "information asymmetry" in the logistics industry and promote the development of China's commodity logistics.

　　Promoting sustainable cultural development and exploring the futures industryESG

From the perspective of sustainable development, the sustainable development of the futures industry, as one of the important contents of economic sustainable development, is increasingly attracting the attention of futures researchers. In recent years,ESGThe development concept continues to gain global attention. The sustainable development of the futures market is also in line withESGDevelopment philosophy, how to respond to national strategic needs, deeply integrate our own business, and practice the futures industryESGBecoming a new topic in the development path.

　　ESGThe concept is deeply coupled with futures business. In terms of green development, a new focus of the futures market is to focus on green and low-carbon development, accelerate the research and layout of green and low-carbon derivatives, and empower the country's green development. Therefore, focusing on emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, optimizing and improving the contract rules of "dual carbon" policy related varieties, and developing green and low-carbon derivatives will become a new direction for major exchanges to focus on. For example, within two years, the product plans of Guangqi Institute are all related varieties that serve green development, with innovative green as the characteristic, and the development of innovative finance and green finance. In the future, the futures market is expected to seize policy opportunities, further focus on promoting innovative research and development of new energy metals and other futures products guided by green development, promote the construction of a sound risk management system for carbon emission related derivatives, and create a diversified and open futures derivatives market. In terms of serving society, the futures market continuously innovates, deeply implements the concept of serving the real economy, provides rich and diverse products and services for physical enterprises, and develops and innovates more financial service products. In terms of corporate governance, futures companies should innovate in business processes, financial products, internal management, and other aspects. They should promote the new development of futures company brokerage business through enhancing industry concentration, increasing service market volume, increasing added value of brokerage business, and enhancing internationalization level, deepening reforms, and further releasing vitality, improving quality and efficiency.

Building the Futures IndustryESGThe system, continuously improving governance level, willESGAs an important lever for high-quality development, the sustainable development of the futures industry has always been on the road. (Author's affiliation: Institute of Securities and Futures, Beijing University of Business and Technology)

This article originates from: Futures Daily