ATFX: The US benchmark interest rate is almost equal to the yield of one-year treasury bonds

12The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in January50After the base point, the benchmark interest rate of the United States rose to4.25%~4.5%High level range. U.S.A52The weekly (i.e. one-year) bond yield is4.64%, insufficient difference with the benchmark interest rate range15Bps, almost flat. This situation was extremely rare before this year. When the gap between the two is not large, it means that the interest rate formed spontaneously in the market is "coincidentally" with the interest rate regulated by the Federal Reserve, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates in the future is gradually decreasing.

next year1In January, the Federal Reserve made another interest rate decision. according to12月份美联储主席鲍威尔的说法，1Monthly interest rate hike25基点的概率较高。当美国的基准利率升至4.5%~4.75%区间时，一年期债券收益率便包含于基准利率区间之内。届时，市场的预期将由加息状态转变为维持当前利率的状态。

超短期债券收益率倒挂问题同样值得关注。2年期美债收益率最新值4.18%，相比一年期美债收益率4.64%来说，倒挂46基点。这意味着，美联储有可能在1reach2年内开启降息政策，并且市场对降息幅度的预期正在扩大。当然，现实角度考虑，美联储刚刚在12Monthly interest rate hike50基点，现在谈论降息政策还为时过早。

美元指数的强势周期由美联储的激进加息促成。当美联储不再加息后，美元指数将彻底失去升值动力。随着高利率对投资和消费的抑制越来越显现，美国经济衰退的概率也在不断增大。如果美国的失业率飙升至5%以上（预计在2023年下半年出现），美联储将不得不采取降息措施，以稳定宏观经济。从这个角度看，美元指数很难在2023年走强，其中期目标位在100关口，更长远看，回到90附近也有一定可能性。

EURUSD受到美元指数的影响最为直接。随着美元指数持续走弱，欧美汇率已经从9月份最低跌破1:1平价，反弹至当前的1.06以上。预计在明年一季度，欧美汇率有可能突破1.1Gateway.gold作为与美元指数存在“跷跷板”关系的品种，明年一季度也有可能冲击2000dollar/The ounce mark.

美股市场也受到利率的影响。12月份以来，道琼斯指数持续下跌，累计跌幅已近3%，但这种下跌并非恐慌性的，而是技术性回调。由于美联储已经在12月份的利率决议上降低了单次加息幅度，其市场预期明年一季度美联储将正式停止加息，所以美国股票市场中期运行方向大概率是多头。最近几周道琼斯指数的下跌，主要是前期涨幅过大，导致部分获利盘兑现利润导致。

ATFX分析师团队综合观点：美国债券市场收益率是全球金融市场的风向标，债市收益率与美联储基准利率的持平，表明美联储的加息政策已经接近尾声。

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-12-19