ATFX: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming,50The range of base point interest rate increase may be firm

Tomorrow morning3:00, the Federal Reserve will announce2022Results of the last interest rate resolution in50The benchmark will be the first resolution to reduce the single interest rate increase in the year. before dawn3:30The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will hold a press conference focusing on his2023The outlook of the annual monetary policy and the view on the current inflation rate data, as well as the statement on when to stop the interest rate increase operation, are also the focus.

The US inflation rate data released yesterday basically met expectations.11Monthly nominalCPILatest value of year-on-year growth rate7.1%, lower than the previous value7.7%And expected values7.3%； coreCPILatest value of year-on-year growth rate6%, lower than the previous value6.3%And expected values6.1%。偏低的CPI增速预示着美国的高通胀问题已经迎来拐点，为遏制高通胀而采取的激进加息政策已没有必要延续下去。

受美联储货币政策调整和CPI增速降低的双重影响，美元指数跌破104关口，美国三大stock market index集体收涨。欧元、英镑等非美货币持续升值，gold也涨破1800美元，甚至于对经济数据不敏感的WTI也上涨2.84%Touching75dollar/桶。十年期美债收益率显著下跌，但并未跌破本月低点3.4%。

货币政策是所有金融产品的指挥棒，当来年的货币政策变动路径确定后，金融产品的价格走势也将跃然纸上。我们预计：2023年一季度，随着美国CPI增速逐步回落至合理区间，美联储大概率将终止加息操作；二季度，CPI增速有可能跌至2%附近，美联储维持高利率状态，观察通胀率和失业率数据表现的可能性较高；三季度，美国的通胀率有可能重现疫情前的低迷态势，美联储内部将会对是否降息进行讨论；四季度，随着CPI增速的进一步走低，美联储极有可能开启宽松货币政策。

美元指数和美债收益率对货币政策反应最为敏感。一季度美联储仍会加息，只不过单次加息幅度减少，美元指数和美债收益率将维持跌势，但不会出现主跌浪。二季度，美联储维持高利率状态，美元指数和美债收益率大概率保持横盘震荡。三季度美联储官员对降息的讨论和四季度执行降息操作，都会对美元指数和美债收益率构成巨大利空。基于此，美元指数和美债收益率的主跌浪极有可能在三季度出现。

黄金白银、crude oil、美股等品种，影响因素较为复杂，不单单是美联储货币政策起作用，需要根据每季度的热点事件和经济形势做具体评估，无法给出超长的前瞻预测。

ATFX分析师团队综合观点：今晚美联储加息50基点已板上钉钉，但美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话仍存悬念。

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-12-14