Register now, make more friends, enjoy more functions, and let you play in the community easily.
You need Sign in Can be downloaded or viewed without an account?Register Now
x
Small non farm is a forward-looking indicator of large non farm. There is only a difference between the two in the total number of samples (the latter is greater than the former). The statistical methods are basically the same. When the latest value of small non farm is lower than the previous value, the large non farm data is basically resonant in the direction of change (probability90%Above), just decreasing/There are differences in the growth rate (for example, small non-agricultural associations declined slightly, but large non-agricultural associations declined significantly).
Beijing time today21:15, USA11monthADPThe change data of the number of employees will be released on time, and the former value is the increase23.910000 people, expected increase20万人,预期会出现小幅下降。八、九、十月份,ADP的公布值13.2、 20.8、 23.9万人,依次走高的特征显著。本次市场预期公布值相比前值下降,不符合前述规律,属于逆势型结论,需要仔细研判。
11月美国制造业PMIdata47.6Below50荣枯线,同时低于前值50.4,制造业正处于收缩状态。11US service industryPMILatest value46.1,同样低于荣枯线和前值47.8,收缩态势显著。在制造业和服务双双收缩的前提下,美国的劳动力市场没有理由出现扩张。所以,小非农ADP预期值小于前值,与PMI数据对宏观经济指向性相互匹配。
This Friday21:30,美国非农就业报告将准时发布,其中非农就业人口数据最受关注。该数据前值为新增26.1万人,预期值新增20万人,预期降低的方向与小非农相同。从新增就业的减少幅度看,小非农ADPExpected decrease3.9万人,大非农预期减少6.1万人,两者均小于10万人规模,属于小幅度变动。同ADP数据的影响相同,周五晚间的公布值符合预期,则美元、美股小幅波动;超出预期(即高于前值),则美元受提振,美股受抑制。
*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-11-30