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本周美国有两大重磅数据,分别是10Monthly CorePCE物价指数同比和11月非农就业人口变动,前者用来判断美国的物价升幅是否出现拐点,后者用来判断美国劳动力市场是否能够提供足够的工作岗位。美国10monthCPI增速早已公布,预期值为7.9%,最新值7.7%,处于下降通道内。PCE物价指数和CPI指数的基础类目重叠度高,两项数据大部分时间共振,在CPI增速回落的前提下,PCE大概率也将低于前值6.2%And expected values6.0%。新增非农就业人口数据包含于非农就业报告之中,与失业率、劳动参与率等指标一起,用来多角度判定美国劳动力市场状况。10月新增非农就业人口预期值为2010000 people, the former value is26.1万人,预期偏弱。失业率的前值为3.7%,预期值也是3.7%,预期不会出现变化。综合来看,市场人士认为本次非农就业报告会表现不佳、PCE增速将继续下降,美联储激进加息的目标达成且负面作用显现,这对美元指数空头和美股多头有利。
美元指数最新市价106,年内最高价114,累计跌幅超7%。如果由最新价跌至100整数关口,则跌幅为5.66%。两者加总,累计跌幅约12%。2020年疫情刚刚在美国爆发时,美联储迅速降低基准利率,美元指数当年累计跌幅6.78%。2021年疫情缓解,美元指数实现涨幅6.34%。今年美联储正式开始加息,美元指数累计涨幅10.87%。三年的涨跌幅均低于12%,表明该预期跌幅偏大,达成的可能性不高。至少在今年12月份,美元指数将维持在100Above the gate.
this year3month16The Federal Reserve of Japan raised interest rates for the first time, when the price of the dollar index was98.4, approaching100Gateway. Although the Federal Reserve will change its aggressive interest rate increase policy into a moderate one due to the inflection point of inflation data, the general direction of interest rate increase remains unchanged. Logically, the dollar index should not fall below the starting price of the first interest rate increase, that is98.4。这从另一个角度否定了年内美元指数跌破100关口的判断。
*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-11-28