ATFXWill the US stock market continue to rise and the bearish trend come to an end?

10月份，道琼斯指数上涨13.95%，11月份，再涨3.09%，比较来看，去年12From month to this year9月的累计跌幅为16.7%，十个月的跌幅已经被最近两个月的涨幅抹去大半，美股空头趋势转折的技术信号越来越强烈。叠加美国CPI增速出现拐点，12月份美联储利率决议有可能压缩加息幅度，美国股票市场买入的热情非常高涨，年底之前有一定概率道琼斯指数再创历史新高。相反，如果在前期高点之下遇阻，则会形成危险的双顶看空信号，后市发展将不容乐观。


美国股票是一个“顶端优势”特别明显的市场，华尔街扎堆买入数量有限的知名个股，然后不断吸引新资金进入抬高股价。随着这些个股的总市值不断放大，占据三大股票指数的比重也不断抬升，最终，由数只股票价格走势主导的整个美股市场形成。基于此，美股市场的持有逻辑是：选择那些大市值的高价股。以总市值来看，苹果公司以2.41万亿美元位列榜首，其次是微软、谷歌（A+C）、亚马逊、特斯拉。我们以苹果为例来进行分析。


据第三方数据显示：第三季度全球智能手机出货量为3.02Billion units, year-on-year decline9.7%However, during the same period, Apple's mobile phone shipments increased year-on-year1.6%, to5190万部，可见市场对苹果系列产品的旺盛需求。今年第三季度，苹果公司实现单季营收901.5100 million US dollars, year-on-year growth8.14%Good growth potential. At the stock price level, Apple's cumulative decline since the beginning of this year has been13%Left and right, far below the Nasdaq index30%There is a significant resistance to the decline in both sides. Due to the strong expectation of interest rate hikes during this period, Apple's stock price only showed high volatility and did not significantly decline. Therefore, we believe that in the current situation where the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes has weakened, Apple is expected to continue2021The strong state of the year.


股神巴菲特的持仓市值当中，苹果占比40%以上，是第一大重仓股，远高于价值投资学派们津津乐道的可口可乐（比重不足7%）。实际上，巴菲特的十大重仓股当中，除了苹果以外，其它个股的比重都相差不大，区间为1.82%（美国合众银行）至11.27%（美国银行）。当然，巴菲特持仓的个股不代表一定会走强，但一定会引起华尔街其它金融机构的注意，并有可能形成前仆后继的轮动式持有。

ATFX分析师团队综合观点：上文中对美国CPI增速和美联储利率决议的论述不多，并不是因为这两个影响因素不重要，相反，它们非常重要，只是因为两个因素已经被市场人士熟知，所以不再展开论述。如果下月公布的CPI增速或者美联储利率决议的结果与市场预期产生重大偏离，美股市场再创历史新高的可能性将进一步被压缩。

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-11-21