ATFX：USDCNHExchange rate approaching7.0The offshore RMB appreciation trend is significant

10The market is still expecting offshore RMB to rise or fall in the month7.5,reach11The market's expectations for the month quickly shifted to offshore renminbi falling below7.0 . US CoreCPIThe emergence of a turning point has changed the bullish expectations of the US dollar index, which has lasted for over a year. Without the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes, there is no reason for the US dollar index to repeatedly hit new highs, and non US currencies will naturally take a breather.


For offshore RMB,7.0It is not only a technical support position, but also an important psychological barrier. Once the exchange rate falls below7.0It is expected that a large number of media will play up the trend of RMB appreciation, and short-term attracted short funds and emergency liquidation long funds are highly likely to quickly lower the offshore RMB exchange rate to7.9Below. However, this rapid sell-off is unlikely to last too long, as our assessment of the US dollar index is to "break away from the top range and then enter a long-term volatile market." Therefore, the offshore renminbi is likely to first experience an emergency decline and then move horizontally at a certain central position.


This morning10:00The Bureau of Statistics has announced10The main indicators of national economic operation in the month. Surveyed jobless rate in urban areas5.5%On par with previous values, slightly higher than full employment5%According to the standard, the overall performance of the labor market is stable.10Monthly increase in industrial added value above designated size compared to the same period last year5%, lower than the previous value6.3%The growth trend of the manufacturing industry shows signs of slowing down. Although the above two data are not perfect, their overall performance is positive and their impact on market sentiment is average.

10The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month has changed from positive to negative, indicating that the consumer end of the economic cycle is still not smooth.8Monthly growth rate of total social consumption5.4%It has been decreasing for three consecutive months. And,10The month includes the seven day National Day holiday, and there should have been a small peak in consumption, but the results were not satisfactory.1-10The monthly growth rate of national real estate development investment is negative8.8%, with a previous negative value8%The shrinking trend has further strengthened. Since the beginning of this month, there has been a frequent warm breeze at the policy level, and the problem of insufficient cash flow for real estate developers may have a turning point. The domestic housing stocks in the Hong Kong stock market have also shown a strong trend. However, the above two data still pose a significant impact on market confidence. In the context of both the consumer market and the real estate market being sluggish, the macroeconomic development trend is still unable to maintain optimism.

ATFXAnalyst team's comprehensive perspective: In the medium term,USDCNHfall to6.8There is a possibility of obtaining support nearby, which in turn can trigger central oscillations. The reason for not expectingUSDCNHThe drop to a lower level is due to the significant gap in benchmark interest rates between China and the United States, which is in line with2016Year and2020The situation in the past two years is completely different, so naturally the sharp decline trend of the past two years cannot occur.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-11-15