Guide Metallographer:11.11Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have broken through and continued to rise

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(11month10day)Another significant increase in closing price1711.38dollar/Ounces, highest price1753.05dollar/Ounces, lowest price1702.00dollar/Ounces, closing price1750.80dollar/ounce.


Gold Message Data:


The United States announced on Thursday10Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded7.7%, lower than market expectations8%, previous value is8.2%； U.S.A10Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded6.3%, lower than market expectations6.5%, previous value is6.6%； U.S.A10After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.4%, lower than market expectations0.6%, previous value is0.4%。


Commentary states that the United States10monthCPIThe growth rate is lower than expected, and basic inflation seems to have peaked, which will allow the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of significant interest rate hikes. U.S.A10monthCPIAnnual rate recorded7.7%For this year2For the first time since the month8%。 The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth consecutive time last week75Basis points and expressed the intention to reduce the inflation rate to2%The goal is to further increase borrowing costs. However, this suggests that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the last century80The turning point of the fastest interest rate hike cycle since the s. Although gasoline prices have risen after three consecutive months of decline, commodity inflation is slowing as demand shifts back towards labor-intensive services and a damaged global supply chain recovery. coreCPIThe growth rate is also slowing down, although soaring rents are driving the coreCPIRising, but there are signs that rent increases may also slow down soon.


From the United States to11month5Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week22.510000 people, higher than market expectations2210000 people, the former value is21.710000 people.


Commentary states that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased last week, but is still close to historical lows, indicating that many employers continue to retain employees. Although some companies have recently announced layoffs and job freezes, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still very low, especially in the technology industry.MetaThis week, it was announced that more than1.1Ten thousand people, accounting for13%, displayingMetaThe competition and regulatory challenges are increasing. The layoffs in the technology industry and other interest rate sensitive industries have not yet been reflected in government economic data. This may reflect a time difference between the data in the reports of companies and the Ministry of Labor, as well as the overall strength of the labor market, as layoffs in the technology industry only account for a small portion of overall employment activity.


Federal Reserve official George said early indicators suggest that the labor market may be cooling, but it will take some time to see sustained wage growth cooling down. The consumer price index is declining, but it is still uncomfortably high. The degree of tightening needed depends on the dynamics of the economy and inflation, and cannot be predetermined.


Federal Reserve official Meister stated that there is a greater risk of too little tightening force. Inflation is still widespread, and service prices have not slowed down. The labor market is still very tense. The Federal Reserve needs to push for interest rate hikes to cool inflation. The main risk of inflation is insufficient interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. It is unclear how high the interest rate hike must be and how long the policy's limitations will remain.10monthCPIThere are signs of slowing inflation. Economic growth may easily turn negative for a period of time.


Federal Reserve official Dai Li stated that the average real wage in the United States is decreasing. There is no evidence to suggest salary-The price spiral has risen. Inflation is one of the most lagging variables. If you wait until the inflation rate reaches2%You may have already tightened too much. What may change is how high interest rates will reach. I haven't seen any data that will change the path of raising and maintaining interest rates. If the economic situation unexpectedly changes, of course, policies will be adjusted accordingly. It is better to raise the interest rate a little higher than not to raise it enough. The forecast is that the Federal Reserve funds rate will reach4.9%Peak value of. Now is the time to slow down the rate of interest rate hikes. Our actions do not depend on inflation expectations.7.7%The inflation rate of 'limited easing effect' is far from winning.


Federal Reserve official Logan said he believes that the rate of interest rate hikes may soon be slowed down so that the Federal Reserve can better assess the development of financial and economic conditions.


Deutsche Bank analyzed that the United States10monthCPIThe data further confirms that inflation has peaked, increasing the Federal Reserve's focus on12The possibility of a slight interest rate hike at the monthly meeting. They stated that inflation is unlikely to decline rapidly as rental prices show no signs of slowing down, and there are other structural factors that may cause price growth to be higher than pre pandemic levels. However, they say that signs of slowing inflation, coupled with stabilizing wage growth and slowing employment growth, may prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Expected Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points, below11Of75Basis points.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase50Bps to4.25%-4.50%The probability of the interval is80.6%(Yesterday was56.8%)Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is19.4%(Yesterday was43.2%)； By next year2Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is50.7%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is42.1%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is7.2%。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day3.19Tons, current position is911.57Tons.


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00Germany10monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　15:00UK Q3GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　15:00britain9Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate


　　15:00britain9Monthly manufacturing output rate


　　15:00britain9Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment


　　15:00britain9Monthly industrial output rate


　　23:00U.S.A11Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　23:00U.S.A11Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold opened Thursday at1706.29dollar/Ounces, gold prices remain in a narrow range of fluctuations after opening, with the lowest point being1703Horizontal stabilization and oscillationCPIAfter the data was released, gold prices have skyrocketed and are currently standing at1750upper. The daily line is exploring again1615When the bottom picks up, it's straight from the1630Skyrocketing to1760In just one week, the increase has reached nearly150US dollars, as can be seen from this1615This bottom support is strong. Now the continuous giant Yang pull has successfully opened up the space on Bolin's orbit,MA5—MA10Moving Average Begins Golden Cross Momentum, Top High1730—1735The range also effectively broke through, and the next day the huge positive pull ended in1750Above all, bullish sentiment is very strong. The recent trend has been characterized by high volatility after an instant rise, followed by high volatility after an instant rise of the Juyang. The high level is violently refreshing, and after the shock, it is immediately rising unilaterally. It is not wrong to be bullish in operation, but the problem is that there is a high risk of catching up with the ceiling. If we follow this pattern, today will be another day of high volatility repair, and there is an expected opportunity for a correction and repair at the end of the week. However, such a strong short selling also requires courage to be able to make a correction1740There are many nearby, follow from above1770Nearby pressure.


At the four hour level, gold has once again risen and broken through, and the bullish trend has clearly changed. The change in cycle is also the same, with a large sun engulfing the top, clearly relaxing the limit for bulls. After breaking through the previous upward trend, gold further reversed its bearish trend and fell to a low point in the early morning1743Nearby, you can touch more in the morning. Another one is1739There are also long positions nearby, but if the market gives this position, it is estimated that it will be difficult to rise today. Keep looking at the target above1790Nearby, the first target was high yesterday1757-1765Breakthrough1765If there is any further news stimulation, just watch it directly1790Nearby. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1757-1765Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1730-1740Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　11.11Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1757-1760Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1750-1740Nearby, break down and take a look1730frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1730-1732Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1740-1745Nearby, break down and take a look1750frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)