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by2022year11month3Day, methanol main contractMA2301Continuing decline, closing2554element/吨,环比上周四回升18element/吨,反弹幅度为0.7%,如下图所示。在futures下跌的拖累下,甲醇现货市场逐步松动;内地甲醇市场震荡下跌,西北地区物流不畅的局面依然存在,部分生产企业出货受到影响,下游需求延续疲态。部分生产企业及中间商为促进出货而继续采取降价让利措施,甲醇生产企业陆续调降负荷,但整体出货缓慢,持货商报价跟随下调;沿海甲醇市场下跌后小幅上移,市场心态分化,沿海市场现货整体偏紧,部分持货商存在低价惜售心理,由于下游买气一般,部分业者让利排货避险,商谈成交气氛偏冷清。
chart1. 近期甲醇期货价格走势
to10month27日,我国甲醇生产装置开工率为71.05%, month on month decrease2.18个百分点,同比上升5.76个百分点;西北地区开工率为82.89%, month on month decrease3.80个百分点,同比上升7.01个百分点。我国西北、华北及华东地区装置开工率下降,甲醇行业生产负荷水平跟随回落;企业面临较大生产压力,近期公布的检修计划有所增加,供给端恢复速度相对偏慢。
chart3. Methanol inventory situation in Chinese ports
At present, most of the traditional downstream profits of methanol in China remain low, which is mainly affected by the weakening macro-economy and the repeated COVID-19 in various regions. In the current weak economic environment,MTO工厂生产多数下游理论亏损幅度较大。上周国内甲醇制烯烃装置产能利用率环比走低,周内神华新疆装置停车,其他装置均维持前期水平生产。冰醋酸方面,上周初河北建滔前期装置故障停车检修,山东华鲁于25日检修,产能利用率整体下滑。华南部分甲醛装置提负,上周产能利用率提升。二甲醚方面,贵州天福、兰考汇通装置周尾重启,上周产能利用率窄幅提升。
chart4. our countryMTOStart of construction(%)Situation