Major market severely oversold Iron ore rebounded sharply

Author: Li Qi  |  Investment consulting certificate number:Z0017426

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From the supply side perspectiveThis week, Australia will send to China1386.8Ten thousand tons, decreasing month on month33.710000 tons; Brazil to China634.8Ten thousand tons, increasing month on month47.3Ten thousand tons. The total shipment volume remained basically unchanged, at a normal level.

From the demand sideAccording tomysteeldata247Utilization rate of blast furnace production capacity at Jia Steel Plant87.64%, month on month decrease0.62%； Daily average production of molten iron236.38Ten thousand tons, decreasing month on month1.67Ten thousand tons, basically unchanged from the previous value.

In terms of inventoryThe inventory of imported iron ore at the port is12382.2Ten thousand tons, increasing month on month36.46Ten thousand tons, with no significant change in port inventory.45Daily average port volume307.94Ten thousand tons, increasing month on month9.22Ten thousand tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore from steel mills is9431.38Ten thousand tons, decreasing month on month17.93Ten thousand tons, overall, iron ore inventory remains flat.

Recently, the economic data released by the United States has been weak, and the short-term performance of the US dollar may be weak and weak, which may support the Federal Reserve's move from12The monthly interest rate resolution has slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes, which has given commodities some room for operation. In the past two days, the overall market has risen.Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike window will reopen, and the market generally expects this to be the fourth consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve75One basis point, policy turn signals have become the focus of attention, but the probability of a significant decline in the US dollar index in the short term is slim. The long short game may continue, and it is more likely to continue to fluctuate at high levels, waiting for the market to become clearer. The current Russo Ukrainian war has entered a normalized state, and the market's response to macro data and China's epidemic has become more intense and sensitive in recent times.For iron ore, on the market, it has hit the key line in a continuous sharp decline600Afterwards, iron ore experienced an oversold rebound and short-term upward rebound pressure650If the pressure is too high, you can try an empty order. Look at the target620Frontline; If the rebound is strong and can continue to break through the upward trend, the next pressure level may be below665Nearby. Pay attention to market changes and control risks.

It is still difficult to be optimistic about the stock market, but after two days of rebound, the stock market has returned3000The probability of the stock market generating a profit effect is relatively low when there is a tug of war near the point. It is recommended to continue to remain cautious about the steel sector. At present, there is a high probability of weak volatility in the future market trend, mainly focused on hot spot rotation, making it difficult to have a trend based market. It is recommended to focus on observation and operate with caution.

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