Yu Yue on Jin:10.25今日黄金原油走势分析操作建议及实时策略...

goldMarket trend analysis;



Tuesday（10month25During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading in1648.5dollar/盎司附近，美国9monthPMIPoor data performance, market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase75The expected cooling of one basis point has provided support for gold prices, and gold prices have remained stable on Monday5The daily moving average suggests that bulls still have a chance. However, US bond yields remain at high levels for over a decade, and market concerns about the UK political situation have cooled, slightly suppressing safe haven demand for gold. Additionally, it is highly likely that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates this week75Basis points, market expects US Q3GDPWill increase year-on-year2.1%Expected in the United States9monthPCE也将处于高位，美国国债收益率周一攀升，距离上周五创下的14年高点不远，投资者仍然担心，尽管经济数据显示美国10月企业活动放缓，但美联储将维持其极端鹰派的抗通胀立场。人们普遍预计美联储下周将加息75个基点，但投资者将密切关注任何决策者对未来加息采取不那么激进行动的线索。整体来看，市场已经为美联储11Monthly interest rate increase75个基点做了定价，但现在正在缩减对12Monthly interest rate increase75个基点的押注，这将增加美元和美债收益率的回调压力；而且周一的PMI数据显示欧美经济衰退风险较大，也给金价提供避险支撑，短线金价仍有震荡反弹的机会。但仍需密切关注美元和美债收益率的走势。



　　黄金技术面分析；黄金周一高开低走回踩确认支撑，日线收盘小阴K线。高开至1670承压回测1643dollar|盎司轻微启稳整理。日线配合此前的大阳线止跌回升，昨日回踩修正之后没走出回马枪，以1640做为中性值来看。昨日还是站稳在1640上方收盘。结合美元的日线结构，日线伴随了二次探高回落，短线局部有回落之势，或许短期内还将提振金价进一步反弹。日线处于多空转换当中。目前暂时维稳中中性值1640以及布林道中轨之上运行。从结构来看，短线还有二浪上涨，昨日回踩启稳，短线有再攻高之势。反之如果昨日收回低位。那么反弹只是昙花一现，持续性不足。目前回踩后启稳再向上就有一定持续性，可能会去上破1670。1小时图暂时还处于整理当中，由于上周五的反弹速率过快，使得均线指标跟不上反弹速度。暂时还没形成单边多头金叉向上。所以短线会以震荡节奏呈现。而不是强势的单边，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上建议上方短期重点关注1663-1668Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1640-1635Frontline support,



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



　　10month25At the beginning of the Asian market on Tuesday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd84.81dollar/桶附近；油价周一在震荡交投中收低，数据显示9月亚洲需求仍然乏善可陈，而且美元走强打压油市，但美国企业活动数据疲软缓解了对更激进加息的预期，并限制了油价跌幅。美元持续走强，在日本疑似再次进行foreign exchange干预后，美元在部分交易时段再次上涨，这也给油价带来了问题。据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve11Monthly interest rate increase50Bps to3.50%-3.75%The probability of the interval is4.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is95.5%； reach12Monthly cumulative interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is43.1%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is54.9%。总体来看，需求不足，美元走强打压油价，油价或维持85dollar/桶附近震荡；日内油价或受欧盟举行能源部长会议，以及警惕就地缘紧张局势的不确定性风险，俄罗斯可能计划将“脏弹”威胁作为升级乌克兰局势的借口的相关消息，油价短线或拉锯。



　　原油技术面分析；原油昨日十字K线震荡收平，日线已经连续三根十字K线窄幅整理，空间上维持在上周的区间87.0-82.0之间来回拉锯，也是昨日给出的震荡操作区间，日线连续十字进入钝化整理当中。  4小时布林道紧缩收口，昨日基本维持在上下轨之间来回拉锯，先扬后抑，再伴随下探回升。目前开盘在中轻位置，从K线结构来看，短线暂时走不出单边力度，今日大概率还是维持在87.0-82.0区间拉锯震荡，短线操作维持高空低多。1The hourly moving average indicators are scattered and disorderly, and if they cannot move out of one side in the short term, they will remain fluctuating within the range. Blocking the interval is more crucial than direction in operation, waiting for the organization to break the deadlock. In summary, it is recommended to focus on short-term operations for crude oil today87.0-88.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below83.0-82.0Frontline support.