Yu Yue on Jin:10.20Analysis of the evening market strategy for gold and crude oil and exclusive guidance on unwinding...

　　goldLatest market analysis:



Analysis of gold news: Thursday(10month20day)Spot gold is refreshing9month28Since the low point of the day1622.36dollar/After rebounding in ounces, it turned higher as the US dollar index113Near the checkpoint, there is resistance and it falls back. But the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike policy continues to be expected to continue to be bearish on gold prices. According to the Federal Reserve9The forecast released after the monthly policy meeting shows that the target interest rate will rise next year4.6%The unemployment rate has risen to4.4%about. Federal Reserve officials hinted at controlling the unemployment rate5%The successful suppression of inflation is complete. in the U.S.9After the month's consumer price increase exceeded expectations, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will11The fourth consecutive interest rate hike at the policy meeting in month75Basis points. Although gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, the rise in US interest rates increases the holding cost of non bearing asset gold. Federal Reserve policymakers have stated that they will continue to raise interest rates until they witness inflation cooling, although they acknowledge that higher borrowing costs may lead to slower growth, weak labor market, and increased unemployment. According to the Federal Reserve9The forecast released after the monthly policy meeting shows that the target interest rate will rise next year4.6%The unemployment rate has risen to4.4%about. Looking ahead, gold prices will continue to decline, although high physical demand may provide some support for gold prices. The slight weakening of the US dollar and the decline in the stock market provided some support for gold. However, the rise in yields in major bond markets and the prospect of further tightening monetary policy by most central banks continue to weigh on gold prices.



Technical analysis of gold: the third session of the Golden Week saw a decline in the negative line and a decline in the negative line. After two trading days at the beginning of the week, the small positive line collated and corrected the momentum. Yesterday, with the help of the rise of the US dollar, the gold price fell under pressure, and the opening remained at1654After the consolidation of nearby weaknesses, European and American stocks broke through lows1640Establish a downward trend within the day, with a minimum refresh to1627This week's new low, with the daily line breaking low and closing low, today's short term relies on breaking low1640Look for further decline. Collaborate with the method of organizing and correcting while falling. 4The hour chart continues the downward wave pattern, which was previously1684The pressure bearing structure fell in the second wave, maintaining a weak consolidation below the high point of the second wave in the first two trading days of this week, but it did not show a weak break below the low. After gaining momentum, we broke through and opened up space yesterday. Today at the top and bottom conversion ports1640Obstruction will further lead to a downward trend. At present, the moving average indicator is turning downward and has downward momentum in the short term. Combined with yesterday's weak point sorting and correction techniques, the correction of the weak point in Lianyin is combined with the correction of the small positive line. Further innovation low.1Last night, the hourly chart showed a weak trend and a downward trend. The two reverse high points in the end of the day were1646  1637.Neutral value at1640.Low point seen from below1615In the area, if you break the position, you can see1600.Structurally, downward space has been opened up, maintaining a bearish rebound mentality. Overall, it is recommended that the short-term operation of gold today should focus mainly on rebounding from high altitude, supplemented by stepping back on low levels, with a focus on short-term operations above1646-1651Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1622-1617Frontline support.



　　crude oilLatest market analysis:



Analysis of crude oil news: Thursday(10month20day)The international oil price continued to rebound significantly overnight, and the impact of the US stockpile dumping plan on preventing the upward trend of oil prices is limited. althoughOPEC+The latest production reduction plan has angered consumer countries, and US officials have stated that the Group of Seven's imposition of a cap on Russian oil sales prices will not be replicatedOPECOther oil producing countries. Previously, it was reported that imposing a ceiling on the price of Russian oil wasOPEC+One of the reasons for the decision to reduce production. US President Biden Wednesday(10month19day)Announced a plan to sell the remaining oil released from the national emergency reserve by the end of the year, namely1500Ten thousand barrels and starting to replenish inventory to curb gasoline prices11month8Rising before the midterm elections. Biden is seeking to increase sufficient supply to prevent the recent surge in oil prices from harming the interests of American consumers. Biden also assured American drilling companies that if oil prices plummet, the government will intervene in the market as a buyer. Last week, US crude oil inventories decreased as refineries operated above the average level during the same period, while demand improved compared to the previous week. As of10month14During the current week, crude oil inventory decreased170Ten thousand barrels, to4.374Billion barrels. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected an increase140Ten thousand barrels. Refineries continue to operate at high capacity utilization rates. Last week, the refining volume decreased every day13.310000 barrels, reducing refinery capacity utilization0.4Percentage points to89.5%。 according toEIAThe data at this level is still19The highest in years, as refineries increase production to make up for low inventory nationwide.EIAIt is stated that the original oil depot at the Cushing Delivery Center in Oklahoma increased last week58.3Ten thousand barrels. US gasoline inventory decreased last week11.4Ten thousand barrels. In general, inventory decline and demand surge boost oil prices, and the measures to implement Price ceiling on Rosneft will not be copied toOPECOil producing countries, coupled with Putin's strengthening of Russia's combat layout, have seen a surge in geopolitical uncertainty risks, and oil prices may fluctuate more in the short term.



Technical analysis of crude oil: Crude oil rebounded and closed higher yesterday, with a daily yield of slightly positiveKLine. Short term exploration82.50The front line starts to stabilize and remains at the low point of the previous day, which is also the lower track82.0Above, there is a organizing rebound, but the rhythm is still oscillatory. At one point in the late trading session, it hit the upper track of the previously mentioned downward channel, and as the daily line rebounded and closed higher, the short-term trend became volatile. A step by step correction technique.4The hourly chart rebounded and corrected yesterday, which is also a normal trend. After a rapid decline in volume at the beginning of the week, it hit the lower track of the downward channel0.618At the support point, while the moving average indicator has not yet fully turned downwards60The unit moving average is still above and has not turned a dead fork downwards. Make local actions insufficient, resulting in short-term small level oversold rebound after a large decline. Currently returning to85.0The neutral value fluctuates, and we still need to focus on it in the future86.0One defensive point is the upper track of the downward channel, and it is also a short-term short position defensive point,87.0It is the critical point for the steps to descend, and this position is not retracted. There is still a possibility of a new decline in the short term. Just looking at how to wash dishes in the short term.1Hour chartKThe line structure shows slight signs of rebound, but whether it can break through key defenses determines the continuation of future space. In summary, it is recommended that the crude oil operation strategy for today should mainly focus on stepping back on the low side, supplemented by rebounding from the high side, with a focus on short-term attention above87.5-88.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below84.5-84.0Frontline support.