Yu Yue on Jin:10.19What do you think of the gold market today; Exclusive trading operations for gold and crude oil...

　　goldLatest market analysis:



Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday(10month19day)In the Asian market, spot gold plummeted in the short term, and the gold price just broke through1650dollar/ounce. This week's heavyweight economic data was released, and concerns about UK fiscal policy have also cooled, leading to a growing market wait-and-see sentiment; On the one hand, the Federal Reserve will accumulate interest rate hikes within the year150The expectation of a basis point and the expectation of further significant interest rate hikes by most central banks around the world have suppressed gold prices. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation remains tense, with a slight pullback in the US dollar and weakened momentum in the rise of US bond yields. There are also some bargain hunting and safe haven buying to support gold prices.



United States9The monthly consumer price increase is higher than expected, and core inflation pressure continues to rise, strengthening the fourth rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month75A basis point expectation. However, on Tuesday, the market reacted to the Federal Reserve12Further interest rate hikes per month75The expectation of basis points has slightly decreased. according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: Currently, the Federal Reserve11Monthly interest rate increase50Bps to3.50%-3.75%The probability of the interval is5.2%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is94.8%； reach12Monthly cumulative interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is1.8%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is36.8%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is61.3%The market expected the previous day to12Monthly cumulative interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is68%。 Overall, the short-term amplitude of gold prices has narrowed, but there is still a significant downside risk in the future. It is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the US dollar and US bond yields. If the US dollar regains its upward trend, gold prices may further decline; The short-term technical side is also biased towards bearish positions, but if the US dollar index further rebounds, it is expected to provide some opportunities for gold prices to rebound in the short term.



Technical analysis of gold: Looking at the daily level of gold, yesterday it closed with a long shadow of XiaoyangKThe pressure on the line and middle rail is still being suppressed, while10Gradual downward pressure at the turning point of the moving average, short-term1668-1673Regional resistance is relatively high, repeatedly rising and falling, indicating that it is easy to break the bottom again in the later stage; From the current cyclical trend comparison, we need to closely monitor the short-term10The pressure zone between Japan and China tracks operates at this pressure level, and the weak pattern remains unchanged; In addition, it is important to closely monitor the short-term downtrend channel. If the trend is under pressure in the downward trajectory, it indicates that the trend is extremely weak. Although there may be some rebound and pull-up correction in the short cycle, from a daily perspective, the overall strength is weak, the channel slope is relatively steep, and the bearish trend remains unchanged.



Gold4Hour level:macdAlways in a state of deviation, every time the breaking point is lowered, it is easy to reach the bottom, pull up, and oscillate once, and the high point is also gradually moving downwards, with pressure on the middle track and segmentation resistance1660First line, half year line resistance1670Nearby, as a certain level of strong pressure, constantly testing downward to refresh low; Gold hour line level: Overnight or rising and falling, yesterday morning there was another round robin of upward movement, hitting618Dividing Resistance and Trend Channel Resistance Resonance Points1660Position pressure drops to1651First line, given in the plate1660Kong has successfully won a wave in the short term; At this point, the resistance moves down and the focus is on1658.5Frontline, support1645If there are signs of pressure, try to layout the short space again, and once the lower part falls below1640It is not advisable to chase the sky, as it is prone to deviation and repeated rebound. Please refer to1634-35Consider having a shorter backhand after reaching a stabilizing signal; Although there has been a staged rebound before, the medium to long term trend remains bearish; The hourly chart shows a low volatility pattern, and currently prices are still under pressure under the clouds, with a short-term trend leaning towards low volatility. It is expected that there will be a strong resistance to prices near this level and then a further downward trend. Overall, it is recommended that the short-term operation strategy for today's gold market should focus mainly on short selling through rebound, supplemented by long selling through pullback, with a focus on short-term trading above1646-1651Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1620-1615Frontline support.



　“crude oilAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends

Wednesday(10month19day), the international oil price rose and fell, although the stock market rose sharply to improve market sentiment, andOPEC+The reduction in production and the EU's oil ban on Russia are coming into effect, but the latest release of reserves by the US government still puts pressure on the market. President Biden will announce a plan later in the day to sell the remaining crude oil already released from strategic reserves. EU oil embargo on Russia, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producing countries including Russia(OPEC+)Reduce production20010000 barrels/Japan will squeeze the already tight market supply. The EU's sanctions on Russian crude oil and oil products will be implemented separately12Month and2Effective on a monthly basis. As the European Union12The ban on Russian crude oil at the beginning of the month is imminent, and at the current level, we are still bullish in the short term rather than bearish on oil. But a senior US government official said that in order to fill the gap, President Biden will announce a plan later Wednesday to sell the remaining crude oil already released from strategic reserves and provide detailed inventory replenishment strategies when prices fall. The plan aims to increase sufficient supply to prevent the surge in oil prices from harming consumers and businesses. At the same time, we also assure the country's drilling companies that if prices plummet too low, the government will enter the market as a buyer. Overall, concerns about economic recession have dragged down oil prices, and the release of crude oil reserves by the United States has also dampened bulls' morale; morningAPIThe data shows a decrease in inventory and a slight rebound in oil prices. If the eveningEIAThe data further shows a decrease in inventory, and oil prices may rebound further in the short term.

Technical analysis of crude oil; Crude oil fell in large volume on Tuesday and fell, as expected by yesterday's daily review. At the upper track of the down passage in the hour chart87.0After pressure consolidation, the downward trajectory followed a downward trend, but yesterday's rebound remained unchanged86.50The area is under pressure and has accumulated momentum to break through the low point and accelerate the downward trend, directly falling to the lower track in one breath82.0.As the daily line dips. The end of the trading session ended slightly higher, but it still closed at84.0Nearby. The closing price is not too low, which makes the short-term weakness continue to be insufficient today, and it is likely to convert into a correction for volatility.4The hour chart pauses and gathers momentum, followed by the Great YinKOffline decline in volume, butKThe line has no continuity, and after a single negative decline, it quickly turns to a double positive rebound for correction. And the tail end is closed in the neutral position. The moving average indicator is still messy and scattered, and has not fully formed a unilateral trend. After yesterday's volume increase, the short-term rebound was accompanied by oversold. Today should be a time of shaking and sawing. And the fluctuation base is still not small, and in terms of operation, it is flexible to cope with high altitude and low altitude in combination with the shape of the stuck range.1The hour chart is still running in the downlink channel. The resistance on the track is also the critical point for short-term short positions. Compared to the high point at the beginning of the week87.0Coincident resonance. The short term position is not retracted,1The hourly chart tends to maintain a high altitude rebound mentality. But you still need to pay attention4The oscillation and sawing rhythm of the hour. The short-term approach may be accompanied by repeated dips and rebounds. In summary, it is recommended to focus on short-term operations for crude oil today85-86Frontline resistance, short-term focus below82-81Frontline support.