Yu Yue on Jin:10.19Will the trend of gold and crude oil continue to decline in the evening? Latest multi order unwinding...

　goldMarket trend analysis;



Wednesday(10month19day)，国际金价跌创9month28Recently, it has reached a new low1637.61dollar/盎司，美联储激进加息政策延续预期打压了非孳息资产黄金的吸引力。有机构认为，通胀持续高热对美联储形成约束，这意味着限制性利率制度可能比历史上任何阶段持续更长时间，不要指望投资者会增加对黄金的兴趣。有分析师表示：市场参与者可能希望看到美联储更明确表示何时结束加息，然后才能恢复对金价的信心。鉴于通胀存在上行风险，货币紧缩似乎远未结束，这将使金价暂时处于整体下行趋势中，任何反弹都有可能迎来卖压。如果潜在通胀上升不停止，美联储可能需要将其基准政策利率推高至4.75%以上。这进一步夯实了美联储鹰派姿态。人们普遍预计，美联储将在11月份政策会议上连续第四次加息75Basis points, interest ratefutures交易员也押注12月将再次大幅加息。虽然黄金通常被视为通胀对冲工具，但利率走高会增加黄金的持有成本。在通胀预期居高不下的情况下，美联储大举加息前景将令黄金承压。“在本轮加息周期中，通胀持续高热对美联储形成约束，这意味着限制性利率制度可能比历史上任何阶段持续更长时间。在经济增长前景不断恶化的情况下，金价不太可能上涨，除非美联储在抗击通胀方面取得进展。



　　黄金技术面分析；黄金周二窄幅整理，欲破不破稍显停顿。维持在前一日的区间内窄幅整理，日线再次收盘小阳星KLine.K线实体较小，最高1660.50.minimum1645.60.空间有所收敛，在整理中蓄势寻求突破。美元短期强弱延续不定，限制了黄金的波幅。 4小时目前平行放缓整理，单从K线形态看不出强弱延续。只是一个钝化整理选择方向的前半段。均线指标凌乱发散，等待再次走出发散的方向。目前结构来看，暂时还处于1684-1682高点做临界点的下行趋势当中。也是台阶防守点之下运行。在这种停顿整理行情当中，多空强弱延续不明，首先要做的就是临界点。只要临界结构的防守点不收复，短线则趋势不改，虽有迂回反复，但整体收在之下，保持反弹高空思路，突破再调整思路。目前选择方向阶段，或是蓄势下破。或是上破都有可能。由突破来决定强弱的延续。小时图布林道开始收缩震荡，区间收敛较小。量能减弱。局部进入震荡修正蓄势阶段。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上建议上方短期重点关注1650-1655Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1620-1615Frontline support.



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



Wednesday(10month19day), the international oil price rose and fell, although the stock market rose sharply to improve market sentiment, andOPEC+The reduction in production and the EU's oil ban on Russia are coming into effect, but the latest release of reserves by the US government still puts pressure on the market. President Biden will announce a plan later in the day to sell the remaining crude oil already released from strategic reserves. EU oil embargo on Russia, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producing countries including Russia(OPEC+)Reduce production20010000 barrels/Japan will squeeze the already tight market supply. The EU's sanctions on Russian crude oil and oil products will be implemented separately12Month and2Effective on a monthly basis. As the European Union12The ban on Russian crude oil at the beginning of the month is imminent, and at the current level, we are still bullish in the short term rather than bearish on oil. But a senior US government official said that in order to fill the gap, President Biden will announce a plan later Wednesday to sell the remaining crude oil already released from strategic reserves and provide detailed inventory replenishment strategies when prices fall. The plan aims to increase sufficient supply to prevent the surge in oil prices from harming consumers and businesses. At the same time, we also assure the country's drilling companies that if prices plummet too low, the government will enter the market as a buyer. Overall, concerns about economic recession have dragged down oil prices, and the release of crude oil reserves by the United States has also dampened bulls' morale; morningAPIThe data shows a decrease in inventory and a slight rebound in oil prices. If the eveningEIAThe data further shows a decrease in inventory, and oil prices may rebound further in the short term.



Technical analysis of crude oil; Crude oil fell in large volume on Tuesday and fell, as expected by yesterday's daily review. At the upper track of the down passage in the hour chart87.0After pressure consolidation, the downward trajectory followed a downward trend, but yesterday's rebound remained unchanged86.50The area is under pressure and has accumulated momentum to break through the low point and accelerate the downward trend, directly falling to the lower track in one breath82.0.As the daily line dips. The end of the trading session ended slightly higher, but it still closed at84.0Nearby. The closing price is not too low, which makes the short-term weakness continue to be insufficient today, and it is likely to convert into a correction for volatility.4The hour chart pauses and gathers momentum, followed by the Great YinKOffline decline in volume, butKThe line has no continuity, and after a single negative decline, it quickly turns to a double positive rebound for correction. And the tail end is closed in the neutral position. The moving average indicator is still messy and scattered, and has not fully formed a unilateral trend. After yesterday's volume increase, the short-term rebound was accompanied by oversold. Today should be a time of shaking and sawing. And the fluctuation base is still not small, and in terms of operation, it is flexible to cope with high altitude and low altitude in combination with the shape of the stuck range.1The hour chart is still running in the downlink channel. The resistance on the track is also the critical point for short-term short positions. Compared to the high point at the beginning of the week87.0Coincident resonance. The short term position is not retracted,1The hourly chart tends to maintain a high altitude rebound mentality. But you still need to pay attention4The oscillation and sawing rhythm of the hour. The short-term approach may be accompanied by repeated dips and rebounds. In summary, it is recommended to focus on short-term operations for crude oil today86.0-87.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below82.0-81.0Frontline support.