Yu Yue on Jin:10.15Today's gold trend analysis, when will the bulls take action once they fall and then fall again...

　goldMarket trend analysis;



Friday(10month14day)The international gold price slightly rose, boosted by the decline in US dollar and US bond yields. Despite increasing market expectations for another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and continued bearish gold prices in the short term, radical bearish traders should act cautiously in the face of concerns about an economic headwind. The latest data from Zhishang Institute shows that overnightCOMEXgoldfuturesThe market's open position contracts have grown for the second consecutive day, but the growth rate is only856Hand; Significant increase in trading volume10.9Wanshou. On the day when the price fell, both open positions and trading volume increased, indicating that gold prices may still fall further in the short term. Data released overnight shows that the United States9The monthly consumer price index rose more than expected, with a record increase in rent1990Since the beginning of the year, food costs have also risen, and the coreCPIYear-on-year increase6.6%。 Federal Reserve policymakers unanimously agreed to push monetary policy towards restrictive areas, and even if inflation decreases, officials are still committed to maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time. Some analysts say that the continuous rise in inflation indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to preemptively stop raising interest rates, indicating that restrictive interest rates will continue for a long time, and the continued downward trend in gold prices may prevail. Looking ahead, the biggest question is whether the rebound in gold prices is driven by fundamental factors or just short covering? Analysts from ANZ Bank stated that the market seems to be accepting aggressive interest rate hikes, and the focus may shift to the consequences of such policies. Gold may not see support in the short term, but in a sense, the Federal Reserve may suspend policy tightening. In the medium term, the possibility of gold rising is greater than falling, and we will witness negative global economic performance, which may ultimately shift the policy balance towards interest rate cuts.



Technical analysis of gold; On Thursday, gold saw violently, unable to walk out of the extremely weak unilateral direction in a short time, forming repeated and circuitous saw saw shocks, and rebounding first1682After the first line of pressure, European and American stocks were stimulated by news and fell to a new low this week1642dollar|Ounces, rebounded again in the late trading session to recover some of the lost ground. One degree to1670upper. Final closing at1660Nearby. Daily closing Mid YinKThe line has a long shadow line. Today's weekly closing, combined with yesterday's closing, will enter a volatile ending. A neutral position with resistance above and low support below.4The hourly chart shows a single negative decline and then a single positive rebound, returning to the range at the beginning of the week. The trend is downward, but the continuity is not strong. In the short term, it will be accompanied by yesterday's repeated tug of war. In addition, the uncertainty of the news, as well as the high and retreat of the US dollar, have to some extent limited the downward space of gold. at present4Hour chart on1684-1682Construct a platform based resistance point. In the short term1684The lower part is relatively oscillatory and relatively empty, while the upper part will turn into a wide range of oscillations. The oscillation is forward, the direction is backward, and the short line is operated to determine the space based on the point position. Flexibly respond to the shape transformation of the hour chart in the disc. Overall, it is recommended to focus on the short-term operation of gold today1673-1678Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1645-1640Frontline support.



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



Friday(10month14day)The international oil price fell slightly, although supported by the decline of the U.S. distillate oil inventory, and the authorities in Riyadh and Washington continued to focus on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners(OPEC+)The latest production reduction plan showed discord, but the surge in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the weak global demand outlook limited the rise in oil prices. The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a statement that,OPEC+The decision was passed through consensus, taking into account supply and demand balance, with the aim of curbing market volatility. The statement mentioned that in the10month5dayOPEC+The consultation with the United States prior to the meeting was requested to postpone the production reduction by one month.OPEC+Last week, it was announced that20010000 barrels/Japan's new oil production reduction target. AsOPECIn fact, Saudi Arabia and the United States, as the leading countries, should have decided to erupt into conflict. Saudi Arabia has rejected criticism from Washington, stating that the production reduction was decided "based on facts," and that the United States' demand for a one month delay in production reduction would have negative economic consequences. The statement from the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs quoted an unnamed official as saying that the reduction in production was "purely due to economic background considerations". Global oil demand has weakened,OPEC, the United States Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency both lowered their2023Annual demand forecast. Overall, as winter approaches, lower diesel inventory levels trigger buying and fuel a rebound in oil prices. NATO will strengthen European air defense forces, and geopolitical tensions continue to escalate; Saudi Arabia and the United States revolve aroundOPEC+The reason for the production reduction is tit for tat, with Saudi Aramco warning that oil prices will soar again. Duoduo is good, and oil prices are expected to return in the short term90Above the gate. Approaching the weekend, pay attention to geopolitical tensions, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United States' concernsOPEC+Information on production reduction and tit for tat.



Technical analysis of crude oil; Yesterday, crude oil experienced a downward trend and rebounded strongly to recover lost ground, first suppressing and then rising. The daily trend turned positive for the first time after three consecutive negative periods. And recovered the lost ground during the day's exploration, with a minimum retreat to85.50.In the late trading session, another rebound hit the intraday high to89.60.With the daily line closing higher, today's weekly trend is likely to end in a volatile manner. Not persistent.4The hourly downward trend has rebounded and a single positive trend has been pulled up. Currently, from the perspective of structure, it is still being confirmed whether it is a correction in the upward trend or a reversal downward trend. From the perspective of the pullback space at the beginning of the week, coupled with a certain degree of recovery yesterday, it was not possible to close at a low level in the short term. At least today's opening is not considered weak, and the strength of further downward exploration is limited. In the short term, we will first enter a period of volatility, and then choose a new direction in the medium term.KThe line shape tends to rebound. Attached FiguresMACDindex0The golden fork starts near the axis.1Houtu Yibo Lianyang Station has embarked on a small level down channel onto the track. Breaking the weak downward channel. In the short term, there may be further fluctuations and highs. Operate the final work of the previous week and approach it with a fluctuating mindset. In summary, it is recommended to focus on short-term operations for crude oil today90.0-91.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below86.0-85.0Frontline support.