Yu Yue on Jin:10.13Analysis of the trend of gold in the final trading session and the trend of crude oil and silver market

　　goldLatest market analysis:



Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday(10month12day)In the early morning trading of the European market, the US dollar index slightly declined, which is currently located at113.20Nearby. Spot gold has rebounded, with gold prices currently at1669dollar/Around ounces. After the Bank of England hinted to the bank that it was ready to extend the bond purchase plan, the pound surged in the short term, and the dollar fell slightly from the high point in the past two weeks, providing support for gold prices. Investors need to pay attention to the further fermentation of market sentiment and linkage reaction; But the market expects the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to be released this trading day to be biased towards hawks, and the United States, which will be released this Thursday9monthCPIData sources suggest that high inflation in the United States may strengthen support for the Federal Reserve11The expectation of another significant interest rate hike at the monthly meeting still leaves gold bulls with concerns.



Technical analysis of gold: There is a certain degree of repeatability in the volatility trend of gold yesterday, with the main trend being to see the weak and continue to explore the downward trend, and then the market rebounds and rises again, seemingly reversing and continuing to rise. Then, it ends up falling again, going back and forth or returning to the original point. Explain the uncertainty of market direction and the effective changes in short-term structure. In the short term, the early weakness first stagnated, and the decline did not form a continuation. Along with it, there was a rebound trend in the middle. Therefore, when the decline was stopped, the market still tended towards the expected bearish trend. However, the decline will not be as smooth as before, as there was a rebound in the middle. In the short term, it is important to pay attention to the opportunities and intensity of backtracking. While the trend structure has not changed, the direction of the structure will not easily change. Yesterday's rebound downward trend is also a clear confirmation. However, in the short term, it is still weak, and the decline has stopped at a low level. The short-term focus on the rebound strength determines the future layout opportunities.



From the perspective of the gold daily structure, gold corresponds to the continuous closing of the US Index5The daily negative line, the overall structure has shown a bearish trend, and yesterday it rose to measure pressure10After the daily line, it fell back and once again verified the above5、10The effectiveness of suppressing daily trends means that in the future, if gold wants to change its weak position, it must first win5、10Daily line, otherwise it is difficult for bulls to establish confidence. Currently, gold has5The market has been continuously negative for several days, and according to the regular trend, the momentum of short-term decline continues to be consumed, which may require some rebound to digest. However, currently, the market is heavily affected by sentiment and is highly unstable, and the short-term market may be below the previous low point1655-50The region has a strong supporting effect, so even if gold is currently weak, do not blindly bearish in the short term. There may be a technical rebound at any time, similar to last night's rebound market, but as long as you do not stand on it5、10Above the daily line, the overall structure is still weak.



Gold basis4The structure of the hour chart and the hour chart, currently locked in gold, is still in a state of partial oscillation and repair, and currently it is only a technical oversold rebound. We will continue to pay attention to it below1660Frontline competition does not rule out the risk of another wave of retreat after continuous market fluctuations. At that time, the following can pay attention to1653Belt support testing. And continue to follow from above within the day20Daily line1675Nearby short pressure, if standing, continue to pay attention from above5、10Daily line1685、1690Pressure, but based on the current hourly chart structure, there is not much room for short-term market rebound, relatively speaking1680/85The nearby suppression will be very strong, so if the rebound can continue today, it will1680/85As a strong resistance, before1675There will also be repeated competition processes nearby. Overall, it is recommended that the short-term operation strategy for today's gold market should focus mainly on short selling through rebound, supplemented by long selling through pullback, with a focus on short-term trading above1678-1683Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1660-1655Frontline support.



　　crude oilLatest market analysis:



Analysis of crude oil message surface:10month12At the beginning of the Asian market on Wednesday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd88.65dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices fell close on Tuesday2.5%Due to concerns about economic recession and the spread of the epidemic, concerns about global demand have arisen,IMFIssue warnings on slowing growth and increasing market risks; Oil prices are also under pressure from the strong US dollar, and the United States says it may use strategic crude oil reserves as needed in the coming weeks or months to combat high oil prices. The Deputy Secretary of the United States Department of Energy said on Tuesday that the United States could use emergency oil reserves as needed in the coming weeks and months to combat high oil prices. We still have some additional capabilities to utilize strategic oil reserves as needed in the coming weeks and months. Biden government3Announced historic release in month1.8Billion barrels of reserve crude oil, delivery work will continue until11So far, approximately1.65Billion barrels of oil. Overall, due to the strengthening of the US dollar,IMFWarnings have been issued regarding slowing growth and increasing market risks, concerns about economic recession and the spread of the global epidemic have sparked concerns about demand, leading to a decline in oil prices; The United States claims to use strategic crude oil reserves as needed in the coming weeks or months to combat high oil prices, and short-term oil prices may fall back to85dollar/Barrel gate; However, it should also be noted that the geopolitical tensions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict may limit the decline of oil prices.



Technical analysis of crude oil: Crude oil further fell yesterday and closed lower in line with expectations, rebounding at the opening91.33Chronic depression after first line pressure. Daily harvest with double consecutive yin retreats. Lowest to88.0One area. The daily line is temporarily in a retreat on the second trading day, and the closing date is mid negativeKLine. entityKThe line is not too large, and it is currently uncertain whether to reverse downward or just reverse the correction. We need to confirm based on the daily closing pattern of today and tomorrow. For the time being, the operation is mainly focused on short lines. 4Yesterday, the hour chart retreated from the center track and corrected the downward trajectory. At present, it is still in the previous upward wave pattern of a retreat correction wave, and it is currently unclear whether it is a reversal or a correction accumulation. From the perspective of the space in the past two trading days, it is also a normal correction, unlike gold's direct reversal downward trend. So it takes time to observe the trend shift in the short term, especially after experiencing a pullback after two trading days, the frequency of long short switching increases on the third trading day. The Asian market is uncertain about the long and short market, so we will temporarily wait and see, and move the time point to the European and American market period. Pay attention to the short-term strong and weak transitions before responding to the situation. In summary, it is recommended to focus on rebounding high in crude oil operations today, supplemented by retracing low in the short term89.5-90.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below85.9-85.4Frontline support.