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ATFX:美原油持续处于MA250之下,趋势性空头特征显著

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ATFX:美原油持续处于MA250之下,趋势性空头特征显著115 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1714613

this year3monthWTItouch129.44美元高位,之后一路回落,至今跌幅已超四成,最低触及76.25dollar/桶。技术角度看,3Month and5月份高点形成双顶,4月份颈线位90USD in8月份被跌破,9月市价持续运行于MA250长期均线之下,中长期空头趋势特征极为显著。以波浪理论看,判定空头为主要趋势的前提下,行情正运行于浪3阶段。第一阻力位77美元已被触及,下一阻力位在46美元位置。这也意味着,年底之前,美crude oil极有可能跌破50美元关键心理关口。

OPEC和俄罗斯并不希望原油价格下跌。8月下旬,沙特能源部长表示,OPEC+将很快开始制定新协议,并做好在任何时候以不同形式减产的准备。伊拉克、科威特、赤道几内亚和委内瑞拉等几个OPEC成员国就发表声明表示支持沙特的减产计划。预计OPEC+Will be on10month5日的议上正式宣布减产计划,俄罗斯可能提议直接大幅减产10010000 barrels/Day.OPEC和俄罗斯的减产计划之所以能一拍即合,有两方面原因,其一,显然是希望原油价格维持高位,以便继续获得超额利润,尤其对于俄罗斯来说,可以对冲因为西方国家制裁而导致的经济衰退;其二,全球经济增长预期遭下调,需求面有回落风险,供应端也不应该再持续增产。
ATFX:美原油持续处于MA250之下,趋势性空头特征显著116 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1714613
U.S.AEIA原油库存水平仍处低位。截至9month23Day,EIA总库存规模2568.3万桶,基本与2014年持平。回顾历史,2014年时,EIA原油库存量跌至低谷,美原油价格最高涨至107.68USD, afterEIA原油库存持续增长,美原油价格一路下跌至30美元以下。历史会重演,在2022yearEIA原油库存再次跌入低谷,且美原油价格已经有筑顶迹象时,未来极有可能出现周期性的下跌。OPEC减产或许会延缓WTI的中短期跌势,但无法改变长期趋势。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has played a weaker and weaker role in boosting international oil prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for half a year, and the risk aversion has been overdrawn. There is little money left to be bullish on crude oil prices based on the event. The European Union will12After the month, Russian oil will be completely discontinued, and there may be significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. Before that, if the Russia-Ukraine conflict did not extend to other countries (such as Sweden, Finland, Norway, etc.), the "oil shortage" would not happen.

ATFX分析师团队简明观点:原油价格是强周期品种,目前正从高位区间向低位区间回落。

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-09-30

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