Yu Yue on Jin:9.29Analysis of the latest market trend of gold and crude oil and operational suggestions for unwinding...

gold昨日下探回升收高，打破了周初弱势下跌转为震荡反弹修正，日内先行摔低之1614.50Recently low. After inertia fell, it stabilized and rebounded. Gold prices quickly rebounded due to the rebound in the US dollar, recovering from the previous day's high1642.Breaking the weak decline pattern, while continuously recovering multiple resistance during the end of the trading session, the final closing was1650Above. Daily closing with a bright sunKLine. After a consecutive negative decline on the daily line, the first close of the day was positiveKLine, one yang swallows two yin, temporarily stopping the decline and rebounding for correction in the short term, with some areas entering a volatile state. From the perspective of daily structure, the weekly and monthly closing works of today and tomorrow tend to temporarily maintain stability1610上方走震荡修正。暂时定义为反弹而非反转，后面看震荡区间上轨阻力的确认。消息方面：此前英国央行宣布将购买英国国债，英镑扭转跌势走反弹，美元高位回落，提振金价低位反弹，配合技术面的超跌反弹修正。



　　4The low point of the hour chart has rebounded in a double positive streak, directly recovering all the losses at the beginning of the week. The trend of a quick rebound in a negative decline is that once the end of the day closes at a high level, the next day's opening is a shock correction idea, which may be accompanied by a second downward trend and a rebound, but in the short term, the initial trend is1614Above the low point, there will be a slight pull saw to stop the decline. Simultaneously constructing small-scale periodic graphsABC小三浪反弹修正走法。今日短线应该是先踩后扬的震荡走法，先回踩确认支撑启稳后再推动第二浪反弹，上方下行趋势线的阻力在1690.同时此前的次高点阻力在1680-1687一带。整体而言，反弹在1690-1680一带会形成局部的区间上轨进入拉锯震荡。短线操作卡区间高空低多震荡思路对待。支撑在1640-1642.亚盘的位置偏中性还需等待，留意欧美盘。先冲高就先高空，先回踩就先低多，保持低多高空卡住区间。点位为前，趋势为后。



　　crude oil消息面解析：周三(9month28day)，国际油价下跌，由于美元走强和美国API原油库存增加，但飓风伊恩造成的减产限制了油价下行步伐。有机构预测，供求形势有望很快重新利好油价。美国石油协会(API)公布的最新数据显示，截至9month23During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased415Ten thousand barrels, reduced gasoline inventory104.8Ten thousand barrels, increased distillate oil inventory43.8Ten thousand barrels. Official US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Weekly inventory data will be available on Wednesday Beijing time9month28day)22:30公布。由于需求疲软和美元走强预期，投行高盛公司周二(9month27day)将明年平均原油价格下调17.5dollar/桶，美元大幅升值和需求预期下降将在今年剩余时间内继续对油价构成下行压力。但高盛预见2022Q4 and2023年全球石油市场经季节性调整后会供不应求，并预计石油输出国集团(OPEC)今年不会增加其生产配额，认为OPECWill be on2023年之前稳定产量在当前水平附近。高盛报告称：即使对增长前景持谨慎态度石油市场仍然极度紧张，库存和OPEC闲置产能仍然接近历史最低水平，而且在美国战略石油储备抛售结束之后到年内晚些时候俄罗斯产量预期下降之前，供求形势将很快重新支撑价格。


　　原油技术面分析：原油昨日小阳线反弹修正，暂时守住在76.20低点之下进行反弹修正。最高一度触及79.40.短线局部反弹修正，不过日线和周线的大方向仍处于深度向下调整当中，短线在此前下跌放量之后或许伴随一定的反弹修正，但反弹也是为了趋势的延续而蓄势做准备。4小时图处于下行通道中运行，下行通道上轨的阻力点82.30是这波下跌趋势的临界点，下行趋势线不突破，4小时看空趋势不改，短线的反弹不足以改变趋势，周初的反弹高点阻力在80.30附近，此位已与4hour30均线重合。由于昨日反弹后暂时收稳，今日不排除先走反弹确认阻力再承压下行。


综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上建议以回踩低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注83.5-84.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below80.0-79.5Frontline support.

Silver Exploration17.5After the low point, there was a consecutive positive rise and a successful recovery18Pass to20大关，代表下方有买盘支撑。随后多次冲击20关口也未能逾越，最终大阴回落跌破19关口。隔日更是延续下探18关口，隔日全网公开在18布局多单，最终迎来强势拉升至18.9高位，日内足足拉升1美金，并且是强势收尾。现在日线连阴下跌格局被终结，隔日下探回升重返19高位，代表下方买盘支撑还是强劲。白银短期局势发生变化，多头反弹曙光已现，那么操作今日操作上回踩18.5附近可多，上方初见19.2可空。

Pressure:19——20 Support:18.3——18