Yu Yue on Jin:9.19周一黄金原油白银最新行情走势分析，操作...

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金价上周五上涨，因为美元升势暂歇，但上周美元的涨势以及对美国大幅加息的预期，使金价远低于1700美元的关键关口，并录得四周来最糟糕的一周表现。美元在停滞之前短暂地转跌为gold提供了一些喘息机会。但美元仍势必会录得周度涨幅，使黄金对海外买家来说更加昂贵。据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is82%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is18%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is35.2%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is54.5%Accumulated interest rate increase175The probability of a basis point is10.3%。



International Gold



上周黄金市场周初开盘在1717.2dollar/盎司，后行情先拉升，周年最高触及到了1735.4dollar/盎司，后行情展开回落，周线最低给到了1653.7dollar/盎司，后行情超跌整理，周线最终收线在了1675.3dollar/盎司，后周线以一根下影线长于上影线的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，黄金震荡偏空对待。4小时图下探回升一波连阳反弹修正，且尾盘收在相对的高位。从1653.90低点反抽上来再测破低点1680.空间上反弹略大，打破了弱势下跌的走法，而以震荡下跌的走法呈现，局部仍当作是修正后的弱下跌。反之若有持续性的连阳反弹，将转变为宽幅震荡。综上所述总结：黄金震荡反弹后依旧处于承压阶段，今日操作上考虑反弹做空为主，低多为辅，上方关注1690-1696USD resistance, follow below1660-1650USD support.


　-Analysis of silver trend-


　　白银周五虽然跟随黄金先行下跌一波，但在多头反攻的预期下收复了全部失地，目前看还将测试前高的压力。白银操作建议19.40Buy, risk control19.25, Objective19.90~20。




　　-crude oilTrend analysis-


　　油价周线下跌，人们担心大幅加息将抑制全球经济增长和对燃料的需求。油价上周五小幅上涨，此前伊拉克巴士拉(Basra)The spill at the dock seems to be limiting the supply of crude oil. Investors are preparing for a significant increase in US interest rates, which could lead to an economic recession and reduce fuel demand. People generally expect the Federal Reserve to9month20-21The policy meeting on the day will raise its target overnight interest rate75Basis points. Energy service company Baker Hughes said that the number of active oil and gas rigs increased last week, the first time in three weeks.

　　技术面看，原油日线图下降趋势运行，目前仍然维持低位运行，中长期下跌趋势依然保持完美；小时图反弹遇阻再度回落，目前仍然维持良好的回调态势，预计短期继续向下运行的概率比较高。今日亚盘操作建议：原油在85.4Short selling, stop loss86.0Stop surplus84.2/82.5，