Yu Yue on Jin:9.15黄金原油今天行情走势分析及最新解套操作...

　　goldAnalysis of the latest market trend:



Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday9month14日，现货黄金暂时企稳，但后市有可能延续隔夜逾1.3%跌势。由于美国8月通胀数据出人意料的强劲，美联储在下周政策会议上可能以更大幅度加息给出回应。美联储别无选择，哪怕不惜抑制经济增长，这个过程会导致更多美国人失业。预计，美联储在下周政策会议上可能以更大幅度加息给出回应。根据芝商所“联储观察”工具最新数据，美联储本月铁定连续第三次至少加息75Basis points, interest rate hike100Possibility of exceeding one basis point30%，为了让实际通胀与未来预期趋于一致，美联储别无选择，哪怕不惜抑制经济增长，这个过程会导致更多美国人失业。但即便存在避险环境，加息会提升非孳息资产黄金的持有成本，金价阻力最小路径依然是下行。



　　黄金技术面分析：从黄金日线图看，昨日金价大幅度下挫录得大实体阴线的K线形态，价格直接跌破MA5均线支撑，MACD指标双线开始向下拐头，短时间内留意下方1690-1700区间的支撑效果，如果后市价格进一步向下取得突破的话将会导致MACD指标发出死叉变盘信号，或将会迎来更进一步的下跌幅度。从黄金4小时图看，经过昨日晚间一轮大幅度下跌过程之后目前金价虽然暂时放缓跌势，但MACD指标双线已经进入死叉过程当中，暗示下跌走势或仍未结束，不过KDJ指标三线开始走低有调整的需求，需要留意上方MA5andMA10两道均线对价格的压制效果。黄金日内先再下探1700下方，随后行情震荡回弹，但幅度依旧不是很大，上方仅回弹至1706一线，比隔夜首个回弹高点低，这也表明当前市场黄金多头的信心还是很弱的。如果黄金延续这种横盘性质的震荡消化，那么技术结构会进一步倾向于下跌中继形态，随着时间的推移，也就会加大后期行情再度下跌的预期，届时下方1690一旦失守，则可能很快回撤1680附近，甚至更低的预期。



　　今日黄金上方继续关注1713压力，此位也是5、10日线压力，只要此位不破，则昨日大阴线的影响就还在，整体也就还是呈现弱势的状态，再度下跌也就是时间问题。晚间下方也继续关注昨低1695争夺，预期未来短期内此位随时可能会有跌破，届时下方或可再期待1690even to the extent that1680附近回撤。操作思路上建议晚间黄金高空为主，低多为辅，因为目前无论技术面还是基本面，对于多头稍微都很不利。不要担心错过回弹的机会，如果有回弹，就视作为再短空的机会。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1710-1715Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1690-1685Frontline support.



　　crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend:



Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday(9month14day)International oil prices have remained basically stable. Although the United States8Consumer prices unexpectedly rose in the month, and the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve will further accelerate interest rate hikes next week, but two major industry organizations predict strong demand growth in the future.OPECIn the monthly report, it is stated that,2022Annual oil demand will increase31010000 barrels/Day,2023Annual increase27010000 barrels/On the day, its forecast remained unchanged from last month. Expected2023In, oil demand will continue to be supported by the steady economic performance of major consumer countries, as well as the potential improvement of COVID-19 restrictions and the reduction of geopolitical uncertainty. " International Energy Agency(IEA)On Wednesday, it was announced that the demand growth forecast for this year will be lowered1110000 barrels/Day, to20010000 barrels/Japan, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)Rich countries in China have accounted for the majority of demand growth this year. butIEAThe growth of global oil demand will be reflected in2023Strong recovery in the year,OECDOther countries will support growth next year. The strong US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expectation of another large-scale interest rate hike have dampened market sentiment. The United States is the biggest uncertainty factor, and if the demand outlook weakens, oil may resume its downward trajectory since the beginning of the summer The American Petroleum Institute announced overnight(API)Inventory data display, as of9month9During the current week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged603.5Ten thousand barrels. Official US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Weekly inventory data will be available on Wednesday Beijing time22:30Take out the furnace.



　　原油技术面分析：原油能源拉锯战仍在持续，真正的趋势不明朗，但短期多头局面依然占优，一方面欧盟限价俄能源，另一方面冬季到来，欧洲需求必然回升，所以对俄制裁不解除油价定会在高位盘旋，那么咱们做单只需记住一个点，那就是尽量不追单，围绕低多的主思路去对待，点位上关注86-85.5Keduo, the focus of this week is on90关口，若突破还有力度上行！日线上，上一个交易日行情触碰20日均线后下线，显示上方有一定的压力，警惕行情进一步下行风险。4小时，布林带开口向上，价格短暂突破上轨阻力后横盘整理，短线走势震荡偏多，日内需关注下方85附近支撑，前期价格多次回踩此位置后形成反弹，日内价格大概率会回踩之后再度上行，短线操作思路上尽量以回调做多为主。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注90-91Frontline resistance, short-term focus below87-86Frontline support.