Yu Yue on Jin:9.12黄金期货美原油行情趋势分析及最新操作建议

　　goldLatest market analysis:



Analysis of Gold News: Monday（9month12At the end of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading at1718Near the US dollar, although the high retracement of the US dollar has provided some opportunities for gold prices to rebound, and the geopolitical situation has also provided support for gold prices, the rebound of gold prices has been affected multiple times8month22Daily low point1727.69Nearby resistance suppression suggests strong selling pressure above, given the intensive support from Federal Reserve officials before the quiet period9Monthly interest rate hike75One basis point, the European Central Bank is raising interest rates75After a few basis points, investors also promised to further raise interest rates and strengthen this expectation in the market. The opportunity cost of holding gold continues to increase, and investors need to be cautious of the risk of gold prices returning to a downward trend.



Attention to the UK on this trading day7monthGDPFocus on industrial output data and market sentiment towards the United StatesCPIExpected changes in data and news related to geopolitical situations. Federal Reserve officials will see on Tuesday9The final round of monthly inflation data will be released before the monthly meeting. But officials downplayed the importance of any single data point this week and emphasized their determination to continue raising interest rates, until now at40The annual high inflation continues to decline. This week, we will focus on Tuesday's inflation indicator, the US Consumer Price Index(CPI). And Thursday in the United States8Monthly retail sales data will be an important indicator of consumer performance after the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hike. At present, the market expects inflation to decrease again, retail data will also be strengthened, and the market believes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates75The probability of a basis point is90%. Therefore, overall, data slightly below expectations or meeting expectations may not be enough to change market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike later this month. So, there is still a risk of a decline in gold prices this week, or limited rebound momentum. Unless the data is much weaker than expected, it will support the upward breakthrough of gold prices1750Above the US dollar.



　　黄金技术面分析：黄金上周走势非常凌乱，主因还是受美元走势异常的影响，导致市场对黄金多空情绪也很不稳定，日kThe frequency of the lines is varied and the direction of the short lines is not clear. According to the current gold daily structure, although it was down last week1690Looking for support on the front line, but the rebound rhythm is too fast and difficult to control, and the daykThe interweaving of positive and negative lines and frequent bullish and bearish transitions indicate that the market sentiment is very unstable, and there must be a rebound in sentiment. However, there is pressure above that cannot break, making it difficult to open up a new upward trend. In addition, the fundamental environment is not very supportive of the strong rebound of gold, resulting in gold, although slightly strong, without actual effective upward momentum. At the beginning of this week, it is highly likely that gold will continue to fluctuate, with a focus on the previous low points and20The pressure of daily line construction1730First line, follow below first5Daily line1712-10Competition, market impact5The choice of daily chart may also affect the short-term direction expectation.



Gold from4小时图中来看价格是一个小幅慢涨的走势格局，现在价格运行于布林带中轨上方，若价格突破布林带中轨向下则看1698On the front line, the pressure above is1728-1730On the front line, there is still a wide range of oscillations. Last Friday, a wave of gold's decline pierced through20After the daily trend, it is basically in a sideways oscillation state, and there is a possibility of forming a small-scale downward relay pattern in the technical structure. That is, if there is no strong rebound in the market at the beginning of the week, it is likely to fall again under the consumption of time. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the price arrived early today1720After encountering obstacles on the front line and falling back, the price is currently at its lowest due to the suppression of the central rail in the forest belt1712On the front line, the Bollinger Bands began to open up,MACDIndicator Green Energy Pillar Release,KDJForming a dead cross, short-term weakness, following below within the day1710-1712一线支撑情况，若欧盘横盘整理，那么美盘前我们看好回落，若欧盘破高，那么美盘回落后看好反弹。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1735-1740Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1711-1706Frontline support.



　　crude oilLatest market analysis:



Analysis of crude oil news: Monday(9month12day)At the beginning of the Asian market, Meiyou Trading Co., Ltd86dollar/桶附近；原油上周五大涨超4%，受实际上的减产和削减供应威胁支持，俄罗斯总统普京威胁说，如果实行价格上限，将停止向欧洲出口石油和天然气，但由于激进的加息和需求前景担忧，油价录得第二周周线下跌。尽管上周五出现了反弹，但这两大原油指标都将录得周线下跌，布伦特油价在一度触及1月以来的最低点后，上周下跌了约0.2%。美国原油周跌幅为0.1%。总体来看，虽然全球各大央行激进加息，需求前景存担忧，但油价受到减产威胁支撑，以及俄不会亏本向限价国家出售油气，欧洲能源危机再加剧，欧盟拟征收能源公司超额利润，多重利多，油价本周或重回90Gateway.



　　原油技术面分析：油价上周整体延续近期空头震荡下行破底走势，上周四价格小幅向下刺破81.2关口企稳震荡回升修复，周五全天依托83关口进一步震荡回升反弹修复，最终美盘加速冲高突破86关口报收强势中阳收盘，日k线形成两连阳震荡回升形态，不过目前整体趋势依旧呈现空头压制下行，日线级别20日均线依旧压制向下空头排列，短线反抽不改中期空头下行走势。



Crude oil4小时上来看，上周五原油走震荡上行走势，展开上涨，并在触及高位后横盘回落，当前布林带处于平口期，MAThe moving average moves out of the double golden cross,KDJThe three lines of random indicators are downward, reaching overbought,MACD指标红色动能柱持续放量，快慢线金叉向上，4小时图处于上行延续当中，上周五惯性上探之后回落走修正，目前在确认阻力当中，首个阻力在布林道中轨87.5。其次就是破低口85.0。目前在破低口形成密集性的阻力，也就是顶底转换。今日上方压力继续关注20Daily moving average87上方压制，日内反抽依托此位置继续先空下看回落，下方短线支撑关注上周五小时线颈线位83.5-83区域支撑，日内先行依托此区间看震荡布局多空，87下方继续保持震荡偏空节奏，今日86上方勿追多，综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注88.5-89.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below85.0-84.5Frontline support.