Jiang Xinhong:9.6Federal Reserve speech approaching There is still a risk of a decline in gold prices

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　　9month6In the Asian market on Tuesday, the international gold trend rose and fell, and the gold price opened early in the morning1708The US dollar, which is also the lowest price in the day, has pulled up the gold price since the opening, reaching a maximum of1726The US dollar has gradually retreated after encountering obstacles in its rise, and is currently trading in1714Around the US dollar.

Gold bottomed out last Friday and rebounded on Tuesday. Jiang Xinhong believed that the rise in gold prices was mainly due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions, the market's concern about the energy crisis and economic recession in the euro area, which attracted bargain hunting and safe haven buying. In addition, the US dollar has also increased from20The annual high has fallen, and in the morning, it was even lower to open and lower to rise, providing support for gold prices.Free guidanceVX：jxh2357, buckle:3129466676】

Despite the rebound in gold prices, Jiang Xinhong does not believe that the trend will reverse. This is because in recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have delivered a series of hawkish speeches, especially at the recent Jackson Central Bank annual meeting, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed his strong hawkish stance; In addition, last Friday's non farm data, although it caused the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase75Expectations of basis points have cooled, but interest rates have been raised75The probability of a basis point still exceeds50%The Fed's strategy of significantly raising interest rates is clearly difficult to shake with just a single piece of data.Free guidanceVX：jxh2357, buckle:3129466676】

More importantly, starting from Wednesday, several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, are highly likely to continue delivering hawkish speeches, which means there is a risk of gold coming under pressure again. We reminded everyone on Monday that we must take this seriously.

　　

Technically speaking, at the weekly level, gold has been declining for three consecutive weeks, with the moving average indicator pointing downwards,MACDIndicator dead cross down,KDJAndRSIThe indicator is dead cross, and the empty side has a significant advantage; At the daily level, after gold bottomed out and rebounded last Friday, the short-term decline has eased,RSIThe indicator dead fork turns up at a low position,KDJThe oversold area of the indicator forms a golden cross, indicating that there is a demand for correction and consolidation in the short term after a continuous decline in gold prices. However, the bearish position of the moving average indicator is arranged with a downward trend in the Bollinger band,MACDUnder the zero axis of the indicator, there is a dead cross, and bears still have a significant advantage, limiting the rise of gold prices;4Hour level, gold price is on the downward trend line1Nearby stabilizing and rebounding, breaking the downward trend line2Later on, it continued to rise, but the low points in the early stage formed resistance and suppressed the gold price. Although the short-term downward pressure on the gold price has been alleviated, there is still a risk of another decline.Free guidanceVX：jxh2357, buckle:3129466676】

Overall, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has attracted bargain hunting and safe haven buying, supporting the stability of gold prices1700The US dollar level, however, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has kept the US dollar strong and still puts pressure on gold, which will limit its upward potential. As a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials approach, the risk of gold price decline will gradually increase. In terms of operation, Jiang Xinhong suggests maintaining a fluctuating and empty mentality in the short term, and paying attention to the pressure from above1720USD, below support attention1700USD.Free guidanceVX：jxh2357, buckle:3129466676】

　　

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This article is written by gold analyst Jiang Xinhong（jxh2357）Exclusive planning, thank you to the readers for their love and support of Xinhong's article. I hope everyone can gain some insights and insights from Xinhong's article! Regardless of whether the viewpoint and strategy of the article are consistent with everyone's opinions, everyone can come to me to discuss and learn together! Nothing is difficult if you put your heart into it. Please be vigilant for the same article content and fields that appear after this time period! Investment itself carries risks, reminding everyone to recognize the authoritative platform. Strength teachers, capital safety first, then consider operational risk, and finally how to make profits!

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