Review: Shanghai Wuxi fell to exceed6%Palm oil, cotton, and low sulfur fuel oil fell over5%

　　9month2Japan, domesticfuturesThe main contract closed with a large area of greenness, and the Shanghai Wuxi stock market fell by more than6%Palm oil, cotton, and low sulfur fuel oil fell over5%Cotton yarn has exceeded the limit4%Soybean oil, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai zinc, and vegetable oil fell nearly4%； In terms of growth, urea has risen nearly3%Stainless steel expansion2%。

Everbright Futures: Macro sentiment concerns about economic recession have intensified, and palm oil has plummeted today

In the past two days, with the official delivery of the recent month contract, the oil01The focus of the contract is gradually shifting to the subsequent production and purchasing rhythm. Affected by the recent influx of palm oil into Hong Kong, the basis quotation has significantly declined. Today, palm oil prices have significantly declined, with a decline of nearly6%And drive down the prices of all oils and fats. Moreover, this week's resurgence of the epidemic in many parts of China has dampened the market's optimistic sentiment towards the peak season of gold, silver, and ten consumption, or there may be a situation where the peak season is not prosperous, and the demand side is also bearish on the trend of oil.

In the future, the positive boost from domestic stocking demand and terminal price increases is gradually weakening, while the bearish expectation of improving global oil supply is gradually strengthening. After the peak season of consumption in Malaysia and Indonesia, the pace of inventory accumulation will gradually accelerate, and palm oil external prices may decline. At the same time, macroeconomic concerns about economic recession have increased, continuing to suppress the market and keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve9Expected monthly interest rate hikes and recent developmentscrude oilThe impact of trend changes on palm oil trading.

Guotai Jun'an Futures: market sentiment weakens, focusing on the cost of new cotton

Today, Zheng HuaFutures falling more than5%Affected by the overall decline of the commodity market andICEThe impact of cotton falling below the limit. Past2During the week, Zheng Cotton Futures focused on15000On the one hand, crude oil andICEThe strong trend of cotton provides support for Zheng Cotton; On the other hand, the soft fundamentals of domestic cotton have led to a lack of upward momentum in cotton prices. The peak season of the textile industry is not prosperous, and the demand for raw material procurement is still not strong, and the upcoming launch of new cotton will increase supply pressure.

Yesterday, with the US dollar index hitting a new high and crude oil falling sharply for the third consecutive trading day, commodity market sentiment weakened again. Zheng Mian01The contract has significantly declined after falling below the recent volatility range, andICECotton further expanded its decline after falling below the limit. At present, the supply pressure and hedging demand of Xinmian after its listing will continue to suppress Zheng Mian01The contract focuses on the cost of new cotton and maintains a biased approach in operation.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures: The oil price is currently at a low level, and the probability of a downward breakthrough is low

The oil price has dropped significantly in the past three days. The macro factors and the sharp drop in natural gas prices account for a large proportion of the reasons.

Last Friday's hawkish speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank's annual meeting, as well as this week's statements by New York Fed officials, all foreshadow the next rate hike75The probability of one basis point is increasing. Under the premise of global central banks fully responding to inflation,3、4The global economy faces great challenges in the quarter. In addition, the linkage between natural gas prices and oil prices is also strengthening. In the early stage, European natural gas hit a new high under the dual pressure of hot weather and reduced Russian exports. But as the summer electricity peak passes and European countries face pressure to complete reserves ahead of schedule80%The indicator of storage capacity has led to a significant decline in natural gas prices. Therefore, this week's oil prices have also experienced a three-day sharp decline.

In absolute terms, currently90The impact of oil prices in the US dollar onOPECRelatively comfortable, with appropriate profits, not subject to excessive political pressure from oil consuming countries, and able to limit shale oil investment. Therefore, they do not have much incentive to reduce production.9month5The probability of the meeting on the day of tomorrow will keep the production policy unchanged and wait for the Iran nuclear agreement, while oil prices are currently at a low level. Unless there is a change in the situation in Iran, the probability of a downward breakthrough is relatively small.