Yu Yue on Jin:9.1gold1700大关会破吗？晚间行情走势分析

Federal ReserveFOMCpublish7月利率决议，如期加息75个基点。美联储昔日官员戴利采访时表示：不排除美联储在9monthFOMC会议上连续第三次加息75个基点，将密切关注8月非农和CPI数据。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行行长会议上的讲话强调了降低通胀的必要性，支持了加息的前景，不排除在即将到来的9Raise interest rates again at the monthly meeting75个基点的可能性，全面粉碎了对更鸽派立场的希望。会议之后货币市场加大了对美联储9月更激进加息的押注，现在预计加息75个基点的可能性在70%左右。值得注意的是，本周起美联储缩表将“全速前进”，这会减少市场流动性，同样利好美元。隔夜美国公布的8monthADP就业数据为13.2万人，远不及预期，应是大幅利多，但gold并无所动。另外美联储梅斯特重申，她倾向于在2023年初将利率提高到4%以上，且不认为美联储明年会降息，使加息更为鹰派。



Gold has recently surged1765Stopped falling back and breaking through1730Pass to1720Nearby, and1730Exactly1680—1808Fibonacci61.8%Callback split point. Mainly because the Federal Reserve is now more hawkish, and it cannot be ruled out9Monthly interest rate increase75基点的倾向，导致黄金看空情绪骤增。近期受消息面影响比较大，黄金大起大落反复洗盘。隔日亚盘围绕1720Engage in long short competition during the European trading period1720Embarrassed with a heavy responsibility, in the end, there was still a downward trend1710Nearby. During the Meipan period, the roller coaster thriller was once again performed, and multiple tests were conducted1709The support was confirmed and ultimately saw a strong pullback1723高点，基本收复日内跌幅。可惜的是，最终遭遇美联储梅斯特更为鹰派说辞，导致黄金反弹也只是昙花一现，基本面太过鹰派，黄金也是有苦难言。最终黄金冲高回落，并且跌破1709to1700大关，新低不断被刷新。



      目前黄金跌跌不休，多个重要支撑失守，已经跌至1700大关，非常逼近1680Front low position. Both the fundamentals and technology are biased towards bears, and the rebound of bulls is extremely weak and pessimistic. Bears are still under further pressure,MA5—MA10The moving average dead cross is suppressed downwards, and the Bollinger band has already opened downwards. Since Mester spoke more hawkishly overnight, causing gold to soar higher1723受阻回落，今日跌至1700大关，彬哥布局1700多单成功反弹至1709附近，成功抵达目标出局。此位置是今日关键，若是被跌破那么1680Right in front of us, it will be tested again1680Support, once it falls below, it is a decline7浪。上方首先关注1710压力，再则就是1720Nearby pressure, this position will be the key pressure zone, and the rebound into the air will follow the trend in operation.



　　9.1Golden Strategy:1--1720Near empty, stop loss1726, Objective1714-1709



　　                      2--1700Nearby, stop loss1694, Objective1709-1716



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　　白银前期触及18低位得以支撑，多次下探都未能延续走低，并且日线迎来了连阳上涨，成功突破20Pass to21位置。可惜的是涨势并未延续而是冲高回落了，一举跌破19支撑，并且跌破18关口，看空势头进一步加强。日线21高位连阴回落，现在又是四连阴单边下行，MA5—MA10均线死叉下行，布林带又开始向下开口运行，局势上不容乐观！白银跌破18关口看空情绪高昂，而18关口正是11.5—30涨幅的黄金分割回调61.8%，现在失守18关口跌势进一步延续，操作上反弹18附近空



Pressure:18——18.4      Support:17.5——17





　　OPECLast week, member Saudi Arabia proposed the possibility of reducing production, which could coincide with an increase in Iran's supply if Iran and the West reach a nuclear agreement. The European Union has implemented oil sanctions against Russia, and the United States and Europe are discussing measures to set price caps. There are still hidden concerns about European energy supply, with multipleOPEC国家支持沙特减产稳定市场价格提议。原油价格近期走势比较纠结，虽然反弹回升扭转颓势，但反弹的过程充满坎坷，不断有利空的消息影响着价格的上涨。近期震荡下行至85The low point was able to alleviate the decline, and this position was the expected support point, followed by a rebound and rebound97高位，代表有大量买盘支撑。现在日线低位反弹至97高位，随后又遭遇连阴回落，布林带呈走平运行，短期多空争夺还是激烈。不过周线高位震荡格局已跌破，局势上开始偏空，布林带向下开口运行，今日跌至85.5附近继续多。