Dingsheng Jinshi:9.1Today's gold trend analysis, bears no longer hesitate, bulls have...

——9.1goldAnalysis——


The US dollar still cannot escape the range of high volatility. Under market demand, the Asian and European markets have little volatility and are at high levels. The US market first fell and then rose, forming a108.3/190.3High and low points of. The fluctuation of the US dollar has a significant impact on the capital market. As long as the US dollar falls, gold, silver,crude oilCounter rising, as long as the US dollar slightly rises, gold, silver, and crude oil plummet. From the current trend, in the daily cycle, the US dollar remains at a high and volatile level, making it difficult to break out of the downward trend in the short term. It may be necessary to explore further109.5In the early stage, whether to break the limit depends on the impact of this week's non agricultural data, and the trend is supported by108.1Nearby, wait for the break before watching the trend change. When the US dollar plummets, it is also the day when gold bottoms out.


Gold prices fell on Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline due to aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks around the world.OANDASenior AnalystEdward MoyaIt is becoming increasingly clear that central banks around the world will aggressively tighten policies due to unprecedented inflationary pressures, which is detrimental to gold. according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is28%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is72%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is0.9%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is29.5%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is69.6%。


On Wednesday, gold fell directly under a weak trend, and the Asian and European markets moved directly to1810Nearby, MeipanADPData is abundant, gold is being tested multiple times1710After not breaking through, it has emerged from a favorable upward space for data, with the highest being1723Nearby, this wave matched the market demand and technical perception, but under the trend, gold once again emerged from a decline. At midnight, with the rise of the US dollar, gold was once again hit and broken through1710, minimum at1705。 It can be seen that the decline of gold for two consecutive trading days has basically broken the key support point of gold, and bears no longer hesitate, while bulls have become vases. Today, the market is paying attention to two pieces of news. Firstly, the unemployment benefits data released by the US market,PMIData, the topic of discussion during the meeting with the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, these two unstable factors affect the analysis of temporary gold. Pay attention to the actual impact of the announcement. In terms of technology, the daily line has three consecutive positive points, and the unilateral moving average has obvious suppression. bearish does not chase short, and today's small cycle suppression point is1718Nearby, if the Asian and European stock market falls directly, you can ignore it. If there is a rebound, you can look right1718The test effect is not broken, continue to bear the trend, below1700，1680。 The effect of breaking through in combination with data can be gradually improved1725，1745。 The recent market has many key temptations and changes quickly. Pay attention to the principle of being short and focusing on short selling. Trading strategies need to be flexible and variable.


For the intraday market, gold is temporarily in a very weak state, but it cannot aggressively pursue short positions, mainly through rebound short selling. Suppress within the day1718Don't break through the momentum gap, look below1700，1680。 Pay attention to the impact of US dollar and US market data.


　　——9.1Crude oil analysis——


Yesterday, Meiyou briefly fluctuated and came under pressure92.6After the first line, it fell sharply again, falling to88.2Rebound after the first line, measure the pressure to91.6In the second half of the night, it also fell back again due to the abnormal trend of the US dollar89Nearby oscillation, the daily line eventually closed with a solid saturated negative line, falling through20Daily moving average. From the perspective of daily structure, the US oil company has closed two consecutive days of negative declines, and the negative line has been saturated. Theoretically, the adjustment space has been released almost completely, but there is also a possibility of a further correction wave within the day. However, the space is not very large, but it can only be viewed as a stop to the decline, after all, currently the US oil company has returned to20Offline, if you want to stand up again, you still need fundamentals to support it. It is expected that the US oil company will focus on low volatility and digestion within the day, with attention from above20Daily line91Pressure, following below88Short term support nearby, especially focusing on early trading intensive low point support87Nearby competition, conservatives choose to sit on the sidelines and not participate in the day, while radicals engage in short-term, low, and high altitude competitions around the above range


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!