Li Shengyi8.31To untie the bell, one must still tie the bell! Gold and crude oil!!!

The market is a big stage, not all stories can be told. People need a certain belief to motivate and restrain them. Peace comes after peace, and peace can be determined after peace. In the past, smiling without regrets is the only way to be beautiful;Game, smile in tears, just colorful; Success or failure, smiling in strength, is the most exciting! Due to reason and fate, we gather together in the world,There is reason and fate in the world; Every wave of market trends will be investigated by the market for its reasons,Those who understand will always become market winners. Don't always think that the market has let you down. In this market, no one lives easier than anyone, and simple trading is charming: often many market trends are like this. When you deliberately pursue them, they will run very fast. When you abandon superficial mundane thoughts, focus on strategy, planning, and every wave of market, some profits can be easily obtained.

　　——基本面——

　　纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示, 正在将利率调整到合适的水平以应对高通胀，需要几年时间才能恢复到2%的通胀率。利率需要多高取决于经济数据，他认为基准是美国需要3.5%以上的利率水平。里士满联储主席巴尔金表示，美国正面临“战后式”的通胀。巴尔金解释称，战争结束时，随着国家进行调整以适应战后经济，通胀飙升、且经济往往会陷入衰退。

　　此前，虽然美国7monthCPIYear-on-year increase8.5%增速回落，但美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上仍释放出“鹰派言论”，他表示美联储将继续采取措施“强力”措施抗击通胀，没有空间可以停下来或暂停；将通胀降至2%仍然是美联储的重点目标，在通货膨胀问题得到解决之前，人们不应该指望美联储会迅速回拨。克里夫兰联储主席梅斯特也表示，美联储将“全力以赴”遏制通胀，她支持明年年初将基准利率提高到4%above.

　　美联储官员普遍继续释放鹰派言论，美债收益率及美元指数高位运行且仍或存上行空间，尤其是在本周将公布的美国8月非农就业数据若仍超出预期的情况下。因而金价在经历4周的反弹之后仍或面临下行压力。此外，最新的COMEXgold非商业净多头持仓为125847张，较此前一周-15317张；COMEX白银非商业净多头持仓为-4500张，较此前一周-8008张，也显示投机者普遍看跌贵金属期价。

　　——黄金分析——

　　黄金昨日偏弱震荡，晚盘前期因市场对美联储官员讲话的预期影响，从而出现一波较大的幅度的回落，下方跌至1720附近，随后行情持续位于低位震荡，日线最终再收一阴。日线结构上，昨日黄金在承压5、10日线的情况下的表现是非常弱的，目前来看短线行情或形成一波下跌通道趋势，日内下方可先关注1720附近争夺，波段级别允许跌破，向着1710even to the extent that1700附近再进发的可能。而从基本面角度来看，昨晚行情下跌后并无明显反弹动作，市场多头信心受损严重，这也显然是对基本面的担忧引起的，所以今晚美联储官员的讲话依旧很重要，可能引发行情的剧烈波动。

　　结合小时图走势，隔夜黄金下跌再度下跌，且毫无反弹征兆，故日内行情大概率会有延续回落。虽然技术指标已经显现超卖，但如果基本面情绪继续发酵，那么很有可能会导致行情跌破1720，向着1710even to the extent that1700去测试。日内操作上，保守者暂时还是保留观望思路，有待晚间美联储官员讲话后再根据情况调整策略。激进则继续尝试区间内的短线低多高空，但相对而言，基本面可能偏向空，而技术面短线又偏向多，所以矛盾状态下，仓位务必降低，以防行情异动风险。

　　①日内黄金激进可在1721-20极轻仓搏一次短多，严格设止损1718, look at the goal1725-27即做减仓，剩余持单可看1730-32反弹再做减离。

　　②日内行情如果在1720不破的情况下反弹，上方测压1730、1732/33激进再考虑短空，依旧务必极轻仓状态，带止损1735Above, look down at the target1725-22即先减仓改保本止损，剩余持单根据基本面情况再做调整。

　　③如果日内白盘时段行情走出1720-30区间，那么一概先做观望，不要盲目的追单，具体情况实盘再做调整。

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:

　　原油昨日吞噬阴，大跌收盘，这个过程中注意两点：1，欧盘小时线连跌破底，失去了做多的意义，也就意味着美盘不要去碰多；2，美盘续跌，今日打开了下跌的空间。今日方面，触及93.60Nearby empty, loss95, Objective91下方。其他位置不参与。

　　（以上仅供参考，行情变幻莫测具体以实盘操作为准，有兴趣的可以添加本人联系方式，欢迎讨论咨询）

Sheng Yi's Message

The answer to all questions is never unique and unchanging. Whether the market is going up or down, you cannot control it yourself. Only by keeping up with the pulse of the market can you avoid being eliminated. The market cannot always go up or down, and what is certain is that it will always go right. Risk is an objective, inevitable, and under certain conditions, it also has certain regularity, so we should pay more attention to risk control in operation.

This article is provided by Li Shengyi. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. The above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publication by Li Shengyi, it is for reference only and at my own risk. If reprinted, please indicate the source. (Mobile phone)APPView information, open my profile to view contact information)