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Market outlook this week | 2022.08.29

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This post was finally written by 2233 to 2022-8-29 17:34 edit

abstract

After the hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at Friday's Jackson Hole meeting, people's attention will focus on this week's US employment report and9month13Of8monthCPIUp to confirm9The range of monthly interest rate hikes. However, the current discussion will shift to the final view on interest rates and how long they can remain stable. This week we will also start withISMUpdate on the US economic situation on the index. The situation of the European energy crisis and the expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike will follow the trend of the EurozoneCPIThe development of data and the maintenance of the Beixi pipeline.

From Powell to Employment

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell issued a hawkish message at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, the focus shifted to the United States8In the month's employment report, this may lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its September meeting50-75Basis points.
Last month's strong employment growth exceeded market expectations, boosting the US dollar despite a few days of weaknessCPIThe report once again reversed the upward trend. This two reports need to convey consistent information in order to9An interest rate hike was reached at the monthly meeting75bpsAgreement. The consensus expectation is that8Non farm employment increased30Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is stable at3.5%Average income from previous0.5%Slightly descend to0.4%. If these expectations are met or exceeded, it will shift the focus of attention toCPIThe release of the index, but another strong performance may raise expectations for tightening.
Nevertheless, we believe that the current discussion should shift to how long the Federal Reserve will remain at peak interest rates, and how long it will stay at peak interest rates, starting from9The quantitative tightening policy that will be fully implemented starting from the beginning of the month.

The US economy may improve as gasoline prices decrease

The decrease in gasoline prices seems to have helped the US economy improve from concerns of a slowdown, and Chairman Powell is also confident that this economic momentum is strong. The consumer confidence index to be released on Tuesday should show a rebound as gasoline prices decrease.
The relaxation of financial conditions last month, contrary to the Federal Reserve's tightening target, may also support consumer sentiment. Scheduled to be announced on ThursdayISMThe manufacturing industry may reflect the weakness seen in the S&P survey, but it will still be boosted by the backlog of automotive vehicle production. Housing sales may continue to ease, but housing prices continue to rise without seeing systemic risks.

Key Australian economic data worth noting and the reasons for corresponding changes in key stocks

Although the Australian service industry accounts forGDPof70%Not a manufacturing economy, but due to many top tierASXThe company is a key producer and manufacturer, and therefore the manufacturing industry in Australia remains closely monitored. This includesWoodside、Caltex、Viva EnergyEnergy companies, global packaging companies, etcAmcorGlobal vaccine manufacturersCSLAnd global mining giantsBHP、Rio TintoandFortescue。
Therefore, if the manufacturing data is stronger than expected (higher than51So some major manufacturers in Australia may increase their purchases. That is to say, what really needs to be noted is that last month's index showed a slowdown in factory activity growth, interest rate hikes, wage increases, and a lack of workers causing it to slow down. Therefore, observing whether the manufacturing industry continues to slow down will be crucial.

Inflation in the eurozone and maintenance of the North Creek River will be key for the European Central Bank

Given the extensive coverage of natural gas prices and electricity costs in the region in the past few days, there is no doubt about the direction of inflation in the eurozone. stay7The inflation rate in the Eurozone reached8.9%After the historical high point,8The easing of pump prices in the month may slow down inflation. However, with Gazprom(Gazprom)This week, it was announced that the North Creek pipeline will be repaired again, and the issue of natural gas supply remains Germany's top concern. Food prices have also rebounded again, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of further overall price increases in the fourth quarter. The European Central Bank raises interest rates75The call for a basis point has risen, and if we see a strong one this weekCPIData, these calls may receive further support.
However, if the supply of Beixi River is within the planned period3After days of maintenance, it will resume on time and increase production capacity as suggested, which may mean a significant decrease in natural gas prices in Europe and ease utility costs in the coming months.

India/KoreaGDPWill reconfirm stable growth in Asia

This week, India and South KoreaGDPReported on Asia'sGDPGrowth, as evidenced by South Korea's inflation data. Despite a weak foundation, due to a strong recovery in service demand, India'sGDPThe growth is expected to reach double digits, and the consensus is on an annual basis15.2%。
The rise in commodity prices may rebound and put pressure on future growth recovery, and global demand will also slow down. But the Bank of India still has the ability to further push for interest rate hikes to control inflation. Korea's second quarterGDPMay remain stable, but due to recent6%The printing situation will focus on the relatively larger issues8Monthly inflation.

Important economic data and central bank meeting this week

8month29day Monday

Australia: Retail Sales(7Month)

Japan: Final value of synchronous indicators(6Month), unemployment rate(7Month)



8month30day Tuesday

Thailand: Industrial Production(7month)

Germany: Import Price(7month)Inflation rate(8month)

Spain: Inflation rate(8Month), Business Confidence(8Month)

UK: Mortgage loan approval volume(7month)

Eurozone: Final Consumer Confidence Index(8month)

United States: House Price Index(6month); American Economic Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index(8month)



8month31day Wednesday

Korea: Industrial Production(7month)

Japan: Industrial Production(7month)

France: Inflation rate(8month)

Germany: Unemployment rate(8month)

Eurozone: Core Inflation Rate(8month)

Italy: Inflation rate(8month)

U.S.A:MBAMortgage loan application(8month26Day);ADPEmployment changes(6month)

India: Gross Domestic Product(Section2quarter)

Canada: Gross Domestic Product(Section2quarter)



9month1day Thursday

    Standard&Poor's Global ManufacturingPMIindex

Korea:GDPGrowth rate2Quarterly), Export(8Month)

Japan: Capital expenditure(Section2quarter)

Australia: Housing Loans(7month)

Indonesia: Inflation rate(8month)

Germany: Retail sales(7month)

UK: National Housing Prices(8month)

Italy:GDPGrowth rate2Quarterly), unemployment rate(7Month)

Eurozone: Unemployment rate(7month)

U.S.A:Number of applicants for unemployment benefits(8month)



9month2day Friday

Korea:Inflation rate(8month)

Germany:trade balance(7month)

U.S.A:Nonfarm Payrolls (8month);unemployment rate(8month);Factory orders(7month)



Main financial reports released this week

8month29day Monday

Haier Smart Home,

Foshan Haitian Flavor Industry,

Agricultural Bank of China,

BYD,

Pinduoduo,

citic securities ,

Trip.com,

DiDi Global



8month30day Tuesday

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,

China Yangtze Power,

Muyuan Food,

SF Holdings,

Shaanxi Coal Industry,

Midea Group,

Tianqi Lithium Industry,

Ganfeng Lithium Industry,

Montreal Bank,

China Construction Bank,

Bank of China,

Great Wall Automobile,

COSCO Shipping,

Partner Group,

Baidu,

Crowdstrike,

HP,

Woodside Energy



8month31day Wednesday

MongoDB,

Brown-Forman,

Veeva Systems



9month1day Thursday

Pernod Ricard,

Broadcom,

Lululemon Athletica,

Hormel Foods



9month2day Friday

BNP Paribas Fortis


Source:SaxoShengbao Group

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